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NU

Northwestern 7 at Michigan 33

MICH
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:36 · Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+33.5Score differential+26.0Garbage-time factor+8.9Blowout margin+15.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:49: Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:22: Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +3.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:50: Charlie Kuhbander kickoff for 57 yds , Blake Corum return for 18 yds to the Mich 26 — NU win probability +2.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 11:36: Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:50: Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:10NU 4th & 11 at MICH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30NU 4th & 4 at NU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13MICH 4th & 4 at NU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:21NU 4th & 10 at NU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17NU 4th & 20 at NU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:33MICH 4th & 2 at NU 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:54MICH 4th & 1 at NU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:59NU 4th & 12 at MICH 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:12NU 4th & 5 at NU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:40MICH 4th & 3 at NU 26, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:36NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:08NU 4th & 1 at MICH 47, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:17MICH 4th & 18 at NU 29, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:29NU 4th & 7 at MICH 47, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:49MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:36MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:50MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:20MICH Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:475% → 5%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
94.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 29 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
94.8%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-3
94.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1195% → 93%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
94.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
94.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+6
94.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
94.3%
A.J. Henning run for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+12
94.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
94.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
93.9%
Cade McNamara sacked by Brandon Joseph for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+6
93.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+9
93.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:107% → 7%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
93.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
93.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+2
93.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
93.2%
Derek Adams punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0693% → 93%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
93.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+14
93.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 14 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
92.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:448% → 8%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.5%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
92.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
92.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 5 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
92.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
92.1%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:2692% → 93%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
91.9%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
91.7%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
91.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
91.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 19 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+14
91.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
91.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
91.4%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
90.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
91.0%
Cornelius Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
90.7%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Trey PughSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.1%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-12
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski sacked by Mike Morris and Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 12 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
92.3%
Derek Adams punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 8:3792% → 92%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+6
91.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
92.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
91.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+4
91.5%
Cade McNamara run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+12
91.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
92.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
92.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+6
91.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
91.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
91.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
91.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
91.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 1 yd to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
92.0%
Jake Moody 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
88.0%
Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FUMBLE
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:5087% → 88%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
87.4%
Blake Corum run for 20 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.9%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 3
50
+4
88.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
88.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 10 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.1%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
88.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
87.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
88.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 16 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
88.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 1 yd Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0513% → 13%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
87.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+1
87.4%
Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:5686% → 92%
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
86.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
86.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
85.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.6%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
85.8%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+24
85.6%
Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
86.9%
McNamara, Cade pass incomplete to Johnson, Cornelius, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
86.8%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:009% → 9%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
90.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ryan HilinskiSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
90.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+26
91.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 26 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
90.0%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
90.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+13
90.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 13 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
89.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 7 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
89.3%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
88.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
88.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Wayne Dennis Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
88.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
89.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
90.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5491% → 90%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
90.5%
Andrel Anthony run for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3910% → 9%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
90.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Genson Hooper PriceSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
90.8%
Derek Adams punt blocked by Cornelius Johnson blocked by Cornelius Johnson Caden Kolesar return for 9 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:3192% → 97%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
91.7%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
91.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:264% → 4%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
96.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+1
96.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+19
96.3%
Derek Adams punt for 52 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0697% → 99%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
96.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 23 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
96.9%
McNamara, Cade pass complete to Anthony, Andrel for 9 yards to the NORTHWSTRN24, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+13
96.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 13 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-1
96.9%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
98.6%
Jake Moody 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-23
98.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted DJ Turner return for 23 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0299% → 100%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
99.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
99.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Malik Washington run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
99.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds Donovan Edwards fumbled, forced by Coco Azema, recovered by Nwest A.J. Hampton Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
99.8%
Carl Richardson pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 7 yds Jordan Mosley fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-2
99.8%
Carl Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 49 Carl Richardson fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 8 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+18
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 18 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 3
OPP 14
-15
99.9%
McCarthy, J.J. pass complete to Selzer, Carter for 7 yards to the NORTHWSTRN7, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+47
99.8%
Jake Moody 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:000% → 0%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Marcus Cisco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Jake Arthurs run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+16
99.9%
Marcus Cisco run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Marcus Cisco run for 5 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-2
99.9%
Jake Arthurs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Carl Richardson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 12 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Carl Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:36
Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 4:50
Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 2:22
Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com