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MICH

Michigan 38 at Wisconsin 17

WIS
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:28 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+7.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:17: Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +4.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:07: Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +14.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +11.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:21: Jake Moody 48 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Cade McNamara pass to Cornelius Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +6.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:50MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28WIS 4th & 5 at MICH 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:44MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:18WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:25MICH 4th & 2 at WIS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:25WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:50MICH 4th & 7 at WIS 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:17MICH 4th & 8 at WIS 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:45WIS 4th & 20 at WIS 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:36MICH 4th & 3 at WIS 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:31WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.1%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:32WIS 4th & 2 at MICH 16, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:27MICH 4th & 5 at WIS 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:55WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:53MICH 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.7%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:26MICH 4th & 1 at WIS 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−16.0
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:33WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:55MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 36, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:21MICH 4th & 7 at WIS 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:04WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:07WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:17MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:26MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:34MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:07MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:32WIS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:4942% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
58.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
58.0%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
58.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
58.1%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3259% → 59%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
58.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
58.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
58.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
58.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3642% → 41%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
58.3%
Cade McNamara run for 2 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
58.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 4Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+8
58.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
58.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
58.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+5
58.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
58.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2058% → 58%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
58.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
57.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+19
57.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:5143% → 47%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
57.4%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
57.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
57.1%
A.J. Henning run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
57.0%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-5
57.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hayes) to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+12
58.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 12 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
57.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 6 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
52.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3554% → 52%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
53.7%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
52.3%
Graham Mertz sacked by Christopher Hinton for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 22 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Brunner) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
51.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2347% → 49%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
52.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+17
52.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 17 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
51.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
50
+5
51.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
50.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
51.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
51.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for no gain to the Wisc 5 Hunter Wohler fumbled, recovered by Mich Joey VelazquezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2350% → 51%
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
49.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 4Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
49.5%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 8Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
48.8%
Jake Moody 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:2248% → 46%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.1%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
47.8%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
46.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (Graham Mertz) to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
45.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
45.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mike Sainristil at the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0454% → 53%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
46.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
46.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
46.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:5745% → 46%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
45.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 19 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
45.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
44.3%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
44.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
44.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 7 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
44.3%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
43.3%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
44.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 13 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
44.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
45.2%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
45.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
44.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+8
43.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 8 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
46.1%
Collin Larsh 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:5558% → 63%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
41.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
40.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.8%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
39.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+13
39.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
38.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 4 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
37.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
38.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
37.4%
Jake Moody 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:1339% → 54%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
38.5%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+36
38.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 36 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
53.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
49.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0152% → 49%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
50.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Josh Ross and Daxton Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 17 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+13
49.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 55 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 13 yds to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:2152% → 66%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
48.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
47.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
48.0%
Cade McNamara run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 1
50
+2
49.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.1%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
47.0%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Blake CorumSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+38
48.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 38 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
45.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:4233% → 29%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.2%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
33.7%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
32.6%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.1%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.5%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
30.5%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
31.9%
Chase Wolf pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
31.4%
Chase Wolf pass incomplete to Jack EschenbachSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
29.9%
Chase Wolf pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
28.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:2371% → 73%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
28.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
28.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+8
28.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
27.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 6 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
26.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
26.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:3926% → 25%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
25.8%
Kendric Pryor run for 13 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
26.0%
Chase Wolf run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
26.9%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
24.8%
Chase Wolf sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 33 Chase Wolf fumbled, forced by David Ojabo, recovered by Mich Christopher Hinton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4077% → 88%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
22.7%
A.J. Henning run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
22.0%
McNamara, Cade pass complete to Wilson, Roman for 13 yards to the WISCONSIN21, PENALTY MICHIGAN illegal touching (Wilson, Roman) 0 yards to the WISCONSIN34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+4
22.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
12.2%
Jake Moody 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.0%
Chase Wolf pass intercepted Daxton Hill return for no gain to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0391% → 99%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
9.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
9.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 19 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
8.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
8.0%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
1.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Cade McNamara pass to Cornelius Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:213% → 2%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.8%
Kendric Pryor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Chase Wolf pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
2.6%
Chase Wolf sacked by David Ojabo and Mike Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
2.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2699% → 100%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
1.3%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
1.2%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
0.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
0.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 56 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
0.1%
Chase Wolf sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 5 yds to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
0.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
0.2%
Dan Villari run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Alexander Smith return for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:300% → 1%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
0.1%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 18 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
1.1%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Clay Cundiff for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
Leon Franklin run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 8:26
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
-11
FG · Q4 12:21
Jake Moody 48 yd FG GOOD
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com