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RUTG

Rutgers 13 at Michigan 20

MICH
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:21 · Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Mich 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+30.8Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:08: Valentino Ambrosio 40 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +1.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 14:40: Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds for a TD — MICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:30: Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 14 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:09: Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +4.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:15: Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 47 — MICH win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 3:01RUTG 4th & 3 at MICH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:08RUTG 4th & 3 at MICH 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:21RUTG 4th & 1 at MICH 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:56MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:11RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:03MICH 4th & 7 at RUTG 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22RUTG 4th & 10 at MICH 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:51RUTG 4th & 15 at RUTG 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:01MICH 4th & 10 at RUTG 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:48MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:09RUTG 4th & 6 at MICH 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:10MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:38RUTG 4th & 10 at MICH 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−3.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−12.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:03MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24RUTG 4th & 2 at MICH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−3.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:49MICH 4th & 9 at RUTG 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:16MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:40MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:30RUTG Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
18 plays · 74 yds · 7:3490% → 90%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
90.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
90.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 11 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
89.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
89.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
89.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
89.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+13
89.5%
Blake Corum run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+10
89.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
89.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
89.1%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
88.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.8%
Cade McNamara run for no gain to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 6:0211% → 14%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
89.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
89.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+9
88.6%
Bo Melton run for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
88.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
88.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aron CruickshankSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
88.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 9 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-2
88.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+3
88.4%
Johnny Langan run for 3 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
87.5%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
87.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
87.7%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
86.5%
Valentino Ambrosio 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:1487% → 89%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
86.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 24 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
87.2%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+41
87.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 38 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Christian Izien) to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0511% → 12%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Ross) to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
88.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
88.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+6
88.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
88.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 5 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
87.9%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
88.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
88.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:1989% → 89%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
89.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
89.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
89.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-1
89.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
88.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3911% → 11%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
88.8%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
88.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+5
88.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
89.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:0289% → 90%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
89.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 23 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
89.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
89.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
88.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
89.7%
Jake Moody 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:2910% → 9%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
89.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Johnny Langan for 7 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
89.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
90.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 12 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
89.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 16 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
88.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+3
90.0%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
90.8%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
91.1%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:1392% → 92%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+54
92.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 51 yds to the MICHIGAN 5 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Julius Turner) to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.7%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
92.1%
Jake Moody 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:097% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
92.9%
Noah Vedral run for no gain to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Isaih PachecoSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+29
93.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 29 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4493% → 94%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
93.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
93.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Andrew Vastardis) to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
93.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+2
93.2%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
93.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:226% → 15%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
93.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+7
93.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+16
93.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
93.3%
Noah Vedral sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+11
93.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
93.3%
Johnny Langan run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
93.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 8 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
93.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
93.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
94.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 10 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
93.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Nikhai Hill-Green) to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 14 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:2589% → 88%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
88.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 7 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
89.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
89.2%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-5
88.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 6
OWN 38
-5
88.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Erick All) to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:3012% → 16%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
87.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
86.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.8%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
86.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
85.9%
Noah Vedral run for 5 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
86.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 16 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
85.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 8 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
86.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
86.0%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
85.9%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
88.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
83.7%
Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5190% → 89%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
88.7%
Cade McNamara run for 7 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2514% → 13%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
86.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 26 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
83.9%
Noah Vedral run for 9 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
82.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
82.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 19 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
82.5%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
82.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Troy Rainey) to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+1
82.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Mich 11Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
85.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Isaiah WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
87.5%
Valentino Ambrosio 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2991% → 90%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
90.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+8
90.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 49 yds , Aron Cruickshank returns for 8 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3312% → 11%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
88.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+13
88.1%
Noah Vedral run for 13 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
87.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
88.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
88.0%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
89.2%
Johnny Langan run for 1 yd to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2694% → 95%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
93.6%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
93.9%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+15
95.4%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mohamed Toure) to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
96.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
96.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-2
95.9%
Cade McNamara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
95.4%
Jake Moody 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:078% → 7%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+19
92.9%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 35 Noah Vedral fumbled, forced by David Ojabo, recovered by Mich Junior Colson , return for 13 yds to the Rutgr 42 MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0197% → 97%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
97.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:30
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 14 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
-8.2
FG · Q4 14:09
Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOOD
-4.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:15
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 47
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com