Try the model
IOWA

Iowa 7 at Wisconsin 27

WIS
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:40 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+9.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:40: G. Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +14.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:20: Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27 — IOWA win probability +6.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:05: Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST down — WIS win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:51: Collin Larsh 32 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:21: S. Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +13.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 13:26IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:07IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:07IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:13IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:13IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18WIS 4th & 3 at IOWA 11, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:30WIS 4th & 1 at IOWA 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−9.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:17IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:17IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:18WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:51WIS 4th & 6 at IOWA 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:55IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:49WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 23, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:23IOWA 4th & 4 at WIS 48, down 20
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:49WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 13, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:26WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 3:53IOWA 4th & 1 at WIS 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−3.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−2.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:48IOWA 4th & 13 at WIS 39, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:18WIS 4th & 4 at IOWA 45, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:42IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 11, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:24WIS 4th & 2 at IOWA 46, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:56IOWA 4th & 4 at WIS 29, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:08WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:40WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:21IOWA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:54WIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1939% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.7%
Spencer Petras sacked by Nick Herbig and Jack Sanborn for 0 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+5
60.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
60.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
60.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:3361% → 61%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
60.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
60.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 7 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
60.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
61.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
61.0%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.2%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
61.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+9
60.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 9 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
60.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
60.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0939% → 39%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
60.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+6
60.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 6 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
60.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+6
61.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 55 yds , Dean Engram returns for 6 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+6
61.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 55 yds , Dean Engram returns for 6 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2861% → 66%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
60.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 7 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
61.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
61.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 16 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 3 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+22
61.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 22 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
61.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Iowa 8Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
62.0%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
65.7%
G. Mertz pass,to J. Ferguson for 4 yds for a TD, (C. Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4535% → 34%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
64.8%
KELLY-MARTIN, Ivory rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the IWA19 (BLAYLOCK, Travian). PENALTY Before the snap, IWA Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the IWA16 to the IWA11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
64.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 11
-5
64.8%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 6Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+7
65.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 7 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
65.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
65.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4666% → 67%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
66.4%
Braelon Allen run for 28 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
66.9%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+6
67.6%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
67.9%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
68.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-1
67.0%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
66.7%
Collin Larsh 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 1:1833% → 32%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
67.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Isaiah Mullens and Leo Chenal for 0 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 17
OWN 14
0
67.4%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 17
OWN 14
0
68.4%
Spencer Petras sacked for 0 yards to the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0769% → 68%
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
68.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
69.1%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.1%
John Chenal run for no gain to the Iowa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2731% → 30%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
69.5%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the Iowa 2Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
69.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 1 fumbled, recovered by Wisc Noah BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
G. Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0322% → 21%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.6%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
79.1%
Spencer Petras run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
79.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, downed at the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
79.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, downed at the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4787% → 85%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
86.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
86.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
86.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
86.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Max Cooper returns for 3 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1286% → 91%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
86.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
86.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
85.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
91.3%
Collin Larsh 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4011% → 10%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
89.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by C.J. Goetz for 0 yards to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
90.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 61 yds, downed at the Wisc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15Uncategorized
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:3793% → 92%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
92.9%
John Chenal run for 8 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+6
92.5%
John Chenal run for 6 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
92.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5192% → 92%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
92.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+10
91.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 10 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
92.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
91.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
91.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 36 yds, downed at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2194% → 94%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
94.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
93.9%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+17
93.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 17 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:218% → 21%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.1%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
92.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 12 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
92.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+13
92.9%
PETRAS, Spencer pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Charlie thrown to the WIS10. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on HICKS, Faion enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the WIS14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
92.9%
Keagan Johnson run for 12 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.2%
Monte Pottebaum run for 1 yd to the Wisc 1Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
S. Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4184% → 83%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.4%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
83.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
83.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1818% → 14%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
82.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-3
81.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
82.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
81.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 11
50
+9
82.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 9 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
84.8%
Monte Pottebaum run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
85.8%
Monte Pottebaum run for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:5291% → 99%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
90.5%
Braelon Allen run for 15 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.9%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
91.3%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+14
91.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 14 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.9%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+11
92.1%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
93.6%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
93.7%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+7
93.9%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS III, Danny thrown to the IWA0. PENALTY IWA Pass Interference on HANKINS, Matt enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the IWA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.4%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Iowa 1Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.8%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Iowa 1Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
G. Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:522% → 1%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
98.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 18 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
98.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 23 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.4%
Spencer Petras sacked by Nick Herbig for 0 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 17
OPP 43
0
98.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+4
98.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
98.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:2299% → 99%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.7%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+8
98.8%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 9
50
+1
98.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
98.9%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.0%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-3
99.2%
Alex Padilla run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 18Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Alex Padilla sacked by Noah Burks for 0 yards to the Iowa 11Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
99.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
99.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
99.4%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+11
99.4%
Conor Schlichting punt for 34 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.4%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
99.4%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
99.4%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 27 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.4%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:40
G. Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Larsh KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q3 8:21
S. Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Shudak KICK)
-13.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:05
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 13 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST down
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com