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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:30 · Jack Ansell punt for 36 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:20: Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:19: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +12.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:19: Chris Van Eekeren kickoff for 57 yds , Charlie Jones return for 36 yds to the Iowa 44 — IOWA win probability +3.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:20: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Iowa 48 — PUR win probability +3.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:29: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 21 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +16.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 10:31PUR 4th & 8 at IOWA 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal22.6%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q1 8:34IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.5%average punt
- Q2 10:58IOWA 4th & 4 at PUR 7, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.2%41% to convertField goalTheir call66.7%−0.591% to makePunt61.3%−5.9average punt
- Q2 8:31PUR 4th & 8 at IOWA 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.0%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call36.4%84% to makePunt32.4%−4.0average punt
- Q3 11:07PUR 4th & 4 at IOWA 14, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snapGo for it50.6%46% to convertField goalTheir call50.6%−0.184% to makePunt41.4%−9.2average punt
- Q3 8:39IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snapGo for it41.9%−0.937% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.7%average punt
- Q3 0:29IOWA 4th & 20 at IOWA 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it24.5%−3.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%average punt
- Q4 11:13IOWA 4th & 1 at PUR 10, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%71% to convertField goal8.0%−3.188% to makePunt-0.9%−12.0average punt
- Q4 5:30PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 40, up 17Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 2:37PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 15, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q4 1:08PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 12, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:38PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.3%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:20IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.1%97% to makeGo for two42.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:29PUR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1INT5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3878% → 77%
PURDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1323% → 23%
Q1 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
77.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 7 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
76.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 8 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
76.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5277% → 76%
PURDrive 4TD10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3724% → 30%
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
75.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
75.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
74.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 15 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
74.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 16 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5MISSED FG18 plays · 68 yds · 7:2771% → 67%
Q1 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
70.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 7 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+13
69.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 13 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+9
68.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 9 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6MISSED FG7 plays · 66 yds · 2:1735% → 37%
IOWADrive 7TD10 plays · 80 yds · 5:0363% → 74%
PURDrive 8TD13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5133% → 51%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 15 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
65.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 28 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+10
62.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 10 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
60.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 3 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+7
62.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the Iowa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0256% → 55%
PURDrive 10FG9 plays · 66 yds · 3:3847% → 55%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
52.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 11 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+47
50.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 47 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-8
47.0%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Seth Benson for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+12
47.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 12 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0845% → 42%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
44.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 13 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-1
43.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
41.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the Prdue 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12FUMBLE17 plays · 85 yds · 6:3757% → 71%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
43.1%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
42.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 24 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
38.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
38.7%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+14
35.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 14 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
33.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 3 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
31.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 1 yd to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
31.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 6 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 6 yds TJ Sheffield fumbled, recovered by IowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1932% → 28%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
32.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Branson Deen and Jack Sullivan for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 18
OWN 12
-2
30.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by George Karlaftis for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 10Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
27.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jackson Anthrop at the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD10 plays · 46 yds · 2:3272% → 91%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
27.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+15
30.2%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+20
28.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 20 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
8.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 21 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5913% → 12%
PURDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 35 yds · 5:3192% → 98%
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
7.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 1 yd to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+13
7.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 13 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
3.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 1 yd to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-4
2.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 36 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17INT8 plays · 51 yds · 1:414% → 4%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+16
3.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 16 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
3.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 7 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+12
3.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
3.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 12 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
3.9%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Cam Allen return for no gain to the Prdue 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
Q4 2:37
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+41
1.5%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 41 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
3.3%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Dedrick Mackey return for 4 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0998% → 99%
Q4 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
1.0%
Jack Ansell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 20 yds · 0:481% → 1%
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
1.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Terry Roberts for 7 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+12
0.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
1.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 12 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-11
1.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 21
OPP 28
0
1.1%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted, touchback. Cam Allen return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:29
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 21 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q2 0:19
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 3:20
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+10.5