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PSU

Penn State 20 at Iowa 23

IOWA
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.2IOWA 32.8%Jordan Stout 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 10 · Q3 6:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Jordan Stout 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−13.7Garbage-time factor−4.3Pregame prior+1.9Score differential−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:21: Sean Clifford run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:08: Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:36: Caleb Shudak 48 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +8.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:08: Caleb Shudak 36 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +7.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 6:26: Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 44 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +45.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:39IOWA 4th & 11 at PSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56IOWA 4th & 12 at PSU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31PSU 4th & 7 at IOWA 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:46PSU 4th & 26 at PSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:11IOWA 4th & 10 at PSU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37IOWA 4th & 2 at PSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:55PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:40PSU 4th & 17 at IOWA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:36IOWA 4th & 5 at PSU 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:08PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:58IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:35PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−2.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:35PSU 4th & 29 at PSU 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−9.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:39PSU 4th & 3 at IOWA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.2%−5.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:38IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:13PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:39IOWA 4th & 17 at PSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:02PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:37PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:08IOWA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:26IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:1655% → 56%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.4%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
55.4%
Spencer Petras run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
55.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 14 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
55.8%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
55.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Luke LacheySimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyler GoodsonSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
55.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
55.7%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Jestin Jacobs return for no gain to the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5256% → 56%
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
56.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 7Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
56.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
56.2%
Caleb Shudak 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1344% → 46%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
56.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
55.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
55.9%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
56.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
56.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 16 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
55.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 15 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
55.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
55.7%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.9%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1555% → 54%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.7%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
54.6%
Spencer Petras sacked by Curtis Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
54.0%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
53.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tariq Castro-Fields at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1246% → 47%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
54.4%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
54.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
54.6%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
53.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
53.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
53.5%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Jack Koerner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3154% → 54%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
54.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
54.2%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:0947% → 51%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+30
53.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
52.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 3 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.0%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1749% → 48%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
49.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 20 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
50.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
49.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
49.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
49.1%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
48.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
47.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 3:1452% → 59%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
48.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
47.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+9
47.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 9 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
46.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+3
46.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 3 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
46.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
45.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+22
44.9%
Sean Clifford run for 22 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 3 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
44.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
44.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
41.2%
Jordan Stout 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1642% → 48%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
42.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
42.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 8 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
41.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
41.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
41.2%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 7 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
39.6%
Monte Pottebaum run for 8 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Ivory Kelly-MartinSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
39.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+22
38.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 22 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
38.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
38.6%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
47.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -16 yds · 1:1456% → 54%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
43.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 21 Ta'Quan Roberson fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
44.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
45.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-5
45.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 24
OWN 11
-5
45.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+3
45.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
45.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2145% → 42%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
45.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 11 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
46.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
46.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 11 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
46.9%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+2
45.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
44.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
42.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1859% → 59%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
40.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 8
0
40.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass intercepted Riley Moss return for no gain to the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4144% → 43%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
44.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for no gain to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
43.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 8 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
44.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
43.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tariq Castro-Fields at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
7 plays · -9 yds · 0:3360% → 59%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
39.7%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 13
OWN 9
-2
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 15
OWN 7
-4
41.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 19
OWN 3
0
41.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for no gain to the PnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4960% → 59%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
39.2%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
39.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
41.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 58 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 32 IOWA Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the Iowa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2641% → 37%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
40.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
40.4%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
39.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 4 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
40.1%
IOWA Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
39.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 4 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
39.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 5 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
38.1%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+1
37.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:0563% → 67%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
36.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
35.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
35.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+12
34.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 12 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
34.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 10 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
33.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
33.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
32.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
31.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-11
32.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+44
32.8%
Jordan Stout 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5331% → 38%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
30.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
30.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 18 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.2%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
31.2%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
30.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 8 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
31.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+3
29.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
37.6%
Caleb Shudak 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2269% → 68%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.0%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
30.3%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
32.1%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0232% → 31%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
32.2%
Charlie Jones run for 7 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
33.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
32.0%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
32.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 12 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.9%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 39Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
32.3%
Charlie Jones run for 7 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
31.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2373% → 72%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
27.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
27.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
27.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+2
28.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
28.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2335% → 40%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
50
0
34.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
50
+42
31.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 42 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
35.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
35.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
32.6%
Spencer Petras sacked by Daequan Hardy for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+36
40.4%
Caleb Shudak 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -19 yds · 1:3369% → 68%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
31.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
31.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jahan Dotson for no gain to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-11
30.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 24
OWN 11
-5
30.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 29
OWN 6
0
30.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
32.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the PnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
77.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 44 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:3532% → 35%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
66.7%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 10 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
63.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
63.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
64.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
62.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+2
64.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4782% → 87%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
82.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
86.7%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-4
88.1%
Spencer Petras run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1719% → 16%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
80.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
81.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
82.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 10
OWN 8
-15
83.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for no gain to the PnSt 8 IOWA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3190% → 93%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
89.9%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-3
91.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-3
93.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
92.8%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1611% → 10%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
89.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
88.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
89.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
90.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:26
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 44 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+45
TD · Q2 7:08
Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+9.1
FG · Q3 1:36
Caleb Shudak 48 yd FG GOOD
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com