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IOWA

Iowa 17 at Northwestern 12

NU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:02 · Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, downed at the Iowa 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−17.2Home team on offense−11.9Score differential−5.3Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Arland Bruce IV 10 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick) — IOWA win probability +4.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:05: Caleb Shudak 25 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:21: Evan Hull 31 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NU win probability +17.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:09: Timeout NORTHWESTERN, clock 02:09 — IOWA win probability +19.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 1:44: Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nwest 42 — NU win probability +11.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:34NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33NU 4th & 22 at NU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:38IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:56NU 4th & 12 at NU 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:16NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:41NU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.7%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:30NU 4th & 13 at NU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:34IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:11NU 4th & 4 at IOWA 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00IOWA 4th & 6 at NU 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:37IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:02NU 4th & 6 at NU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:05IOWA 4th & 6 at NU 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:05NU 4th & 6 at IOWA 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:58NU 4th & 12 at IOWA 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−4.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:30IOWA 4th & 5 at NU 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:49NU 4th & 2 at NU 26, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:20IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 42, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:20IOWA 4th & 5 at NU 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−0.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:51IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:22IOWA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:41IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:21NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2617% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.8%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
16.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
17.4%
Derek Adams punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1983% → 81%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
17.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
17.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
17.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
17.4%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-3
17.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
18.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 11:1519% → 24%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
18.6%
Andrew Marty run for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
18.5%
Andrew Marty run for 11 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 22
OWN 33
0
18.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 22
OWN 33
0
18.5%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 22
OWN 33
+1
19.2%
Derek Adams punt for 32 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
24.1%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5581% → 80%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
19.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
19.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
19.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
20.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 45 yds, fair catch by JJ Jefferson at the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4220% → 21%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
19.9%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
19.9%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+2
19.7%
Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
20.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+24
20.0%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
20.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
20.0%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
20.9%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1978% → 77%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
21.7%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the Iowa 16Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
21.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 7 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
21.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+1
22.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 1 yd to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2122% → 22%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
22.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
22.1%
Andrew Marty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
21.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+10
22.2%
Derek Adams punt for 33 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 10 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:5478% → 81%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
21.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 2 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+17
21.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 17 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.6%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+26
21.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 26 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
21.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.0%
Tyler Goodson 13 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0120% → 21%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.4%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
20.6%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
20.7%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.9%
Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:1880% → 85%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
20.4%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 3 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
20.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+19
20.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 19 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.6%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+41
19.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 41 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
19.3%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
19.3%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 8 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
19.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.2%
Arland Bruce IV 10 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:1116% → 16%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
16.3%
HULL, Evan rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the NU32 (CAMPBELL, Jack). PENALTY NU Holding on MANGIERI, Charlie enforced 10 yards from the NU25 to the NU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
16.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for no gain to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
16.2%
Andrew Marty run for 6 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+20
16.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 20 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
17.2%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
17.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
17.2%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 1
50
+1
17.2%
Malik Washington run for 1 yd to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
17.4%
Andrew Marty run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
16.9%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
16.7%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
15.9%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2084% → 85%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
15.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Charlie Jones for 12 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
15.4%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 14 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
14.9%
Alex Padilla sacked by Adetomiwa Adebawore for 0 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+8
15.6%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
15.3%
punt blocked by Raymond Niro III blocked by Raymond Niro IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2318% → 19%
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
17.5%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Iowa 8Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.5%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Iowa 8Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.1%
IOWA Penalty, Offsides (Zach VanValkenburg) to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.9%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
18.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14END OF HALF
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:0482% → 84%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
18.4%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 10 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
18.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
18.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 6 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
18.0%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
16.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+11
16.6%
Gavin Williams run for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
15.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
15.2%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
15.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+17
15.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 17 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1681% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
18.6%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+15
18.8%
PADILLA, Alex pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Keagan broken up by MITCHELL, Cameron at the NU45. PENALTY NU Pass Interference on MITCHELL, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the UI35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
18.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
18.5%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
17.9%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
18.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3518% → 17%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
18.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
18.3%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
18.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Charlie Schmidt) to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
17.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
17.2%
Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, downed at the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:5783% → 89%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
17.2%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
17.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+16
17.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 16 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
17.0%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
17.0%
Charlie Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
17.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
17.0%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+3
17.4%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
11.0%
Caleb Shudak 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:0713% → 16%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+38
12.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 38 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
14.3%
Evan Hull run for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
14.6%
Andrew Marty pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 4 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
14.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 17 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
15.3%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Andrew Clair for 7 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-8
15.5%
Raymond Niro III run for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+5
14.3%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+21
14.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 21 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
15.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+2
14.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 2 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+7
13.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Jacob Gill for 7 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
16.1%
Charlie Kuhbander 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2885% → 85%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
15.3%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+6
15.3%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
15.5%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
15.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1115% → 13%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
15.3%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+9
15.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
15.7%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
15.8%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+4
14.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+2
13.3%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2986% → 88%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.7%
Alex Padilla sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for 0 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
14.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+9
14.9%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 9 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
12.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by JJ Jefferson at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22INT
11 plays · 60 yds · 0:0014% → 19%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-10
14.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Evan Hull) to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+15
13.8%
MARTY, Andrew pass to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, JR., Stephon broken up by HANKINS, Matt at the NU18. PENALTY UI Pass Interference on HANKINS, Matt enforced 15 yards to the NU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
14.6%
IOWA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Matt Hankins) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
15.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
15.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
15.7%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+11
14.3%
MARTY, Andrew pass to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, JR., Stephon broken up by HANKINS, Matt at the UI42. PENALTY UI Pass Interference on HANKINS, Matt enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the UI41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
17.0%
Andrew Marty run for 6 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
18.5%
Andrew Marty sacked by Joe Evans for 0 yards to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+16
15.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 16 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
18.5%
Andrew Marty pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 3:4290% → 92%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
10.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 15 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
10.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 22 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
9.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
9.3%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
9.6%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
8.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 23 yds, downed at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 1:599% → 31%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
8.6%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
9.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 7 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
9.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+31
8.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 31 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
11.4%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
11.1%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 11 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
13.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Sam Gerak) to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+31
31.3%
Evan Hull 31 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1888% → 91%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
11.8%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
12.0%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
8.6%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
9.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by JJ Jefferson at the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
20.5%
Andrew Marty pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-20.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:09
Timeout NORTHWESTERN, clock 02:09
-19.4
TD · Q4 2:21
Evan Hull 31 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com