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MSU

Michigan State 20 at Indiana 15

IU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:42 · James Evans punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScoring-chance index
+18.5+9.30−9.3−18.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense+11.8Pregame prior−0.9Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin−1.1Scoring-chance index−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:02: Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +2.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:33: Cal Haladay 30 Yd Interception Return (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:55: Charles Campbell 25 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +4.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:49: Jared Smolar kickoff for 61 yds , Jayden Reed return for 21 yds to the INDIANA 44 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the MchSt 9 — MSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:31: Matt Coghlin 49 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +7.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:03MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:02IU 4th & 6 at MSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37IU 4th & 7 at IU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:21IU 4th & 3 at MSU 26, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:28MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:28IU 4th & 1 at MSU 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:55IU 4th & 4 at MSU 7, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:17MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:28IU 4th & 4 at MSU 47, up 2
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:25MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:58IU 4th & 4 at MSU 39, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−2.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:54MSU 4th & 5 at IU 34, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:31IU 4th & 3 at IU 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:31MSU 4th & 5 at IU 31, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:42IU 4th & 9 at IU 26, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−4.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:43MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:03IU 4th & 21 at IU 26, up 5
    Numbers favored punt by 6.2 ptsWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%−6.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:33MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4958% → 57%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
42.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
42.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
43.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0143% → 46%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
43.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-5
43.1%
PENALTY IND False Start (Haggard,Luke) 5 yards from IND31 to IND26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
43.1%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+16
42.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 16 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.2%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
43.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Javon Swinton for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+22
43.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 22 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
43.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Javon Swinton for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+11
43.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
43.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 14 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
43.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
43.4%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
43.3%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Noah Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
45.5%
Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1355% → 54%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
45.7%
Thorne,Payton pass incomplete to Reed,Jayden PENALTY IND Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
45.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
44.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
45.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+8
45.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
46.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1646% → 43%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
46.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
45.9%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-30
42.9%
Cal Haladay 30 Yd Interception Return (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5643% → 43%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Javon Swinton for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
43.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
42.7%
James Evans punt for 55 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4956% → 55%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
43.6%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Heyward,Connor) 5 yards from MSU21 to MSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+1
43.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 14
OWN 17
-11
43.8%
Payton Thorne sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 25
OWN 6
0
44.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
44.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2745% → 46%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
45.2%
Donaven McCulley run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
45.3%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
46.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+8
46.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
45.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Jacolby HewittSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
46.3%
Charles Campbell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:5355% → 54%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
44.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.6%
Harold Joiner run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
44.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-5
46.0%
Baringer,Bryce punt 58 yards to the IND05 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from MSU37 to MSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
46.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:3346% → 53%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
45.8%
Chris Childers run for 25 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
47.7%
Jack Tuttle run for 9 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
48.1%
Chris Childers run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
48.1%
Chris Childers run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
48.1%
Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete to Bjorson,Matt QB hurried by Panasiuk,Jacub PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (Panasiuk,Jacub) 15 yards from MSU40 to MSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
48.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 6 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
47.9%
Chris Childers run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
47.0%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
48.7%
Donaven McCulley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
48.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Chris Childers for 3 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
47.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
52.5%
Charles Campbell 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:3849% → 47%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Samac,Nick) 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
51.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-10
51.2%
Thorne,Payton pass complete to Reed,Jayden for 6 yards to the MSU28 (Williams,Jaylin) PENALTY MSU Holding (Jarvis,Kevin) 10 yards from MSU22 to MSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
51.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+12
52.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:4952% → 54%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
52.4%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
52.3%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+29
51.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 29 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
54.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
54.5%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
53.9%
James Evans punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0348% → 45%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
52.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
52.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
53.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
54.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:2556% → 58%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
55.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 6 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
56.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
56.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 10 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+55
57.5%
Charles Campbell 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:5759% → 61%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
59.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+19
59.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 19 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
61.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
60.2%
Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete to Marshall,Miles PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Kimbrough,Chester) 15 yards from IND40 to MSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
62.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
62.1%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
61.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
61.3%
James Evans punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0441% → 41%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
58.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 23 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
56.2%
Walker III,Kenneth rush for 5 yards gain to the MSU48 (Bryant,Alfred; Layne,Raheem) PENALTY MSU Holding (Horst,Jarrett) 10 yards from MSU43 to MSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+2
58.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+15
58.9%
Thorne,Payton pass incomplete to Reed,Jayden PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Pierre,Noah) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
54.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
54.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
54.5%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
54.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 2 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+7
57.1%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
58.6%
Matt Coghlin 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2363% → 63%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
64.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
62.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.6%
James Evans punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 38 , Jayden Reed returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:0641% → 42%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
59.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 19 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
56.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
56.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ronald WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
57.7%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:0165% → 66%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
64.8%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
65.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 1 yd to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
63.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Chris Childers for 5 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
65.8%
Chris Childers run for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
66.4%
Jack Tuttle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3543% → 42%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
57.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+15
55.5%
pass incomplete for a 1ST down to Payton Thorne for 15 yds to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
56.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
57.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:5366% → 73%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
67.5%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
67.7%
Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete to Marshall,Miles broken up by Williams Jr.,Ronald PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Williams Jr.,Ronald) 15 yards from IND39 to MSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
70.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
70.1%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
70.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 9 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
71.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Chris ChildersSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
71.7%
Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete to Fryfogle,Ty, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Lowery,Marqui) 15 yards from MSU24 to MSU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete pass complete to for 9 ydsSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
73.8%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1835% → 35%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
65.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
65.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+11
66.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
64.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Connor Heyward) to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
64.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
64.6%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
63.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+28
63.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
58.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
55.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
57.7%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
64.7%
Matt Coghlin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4977% → 79%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.4%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
75.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.8%
James Evans punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5935% → 26%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
64.8%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
61.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-4
66.3%
Payton Thorne sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
74.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FUMBLE
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:4482% → 85%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
82.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Javon Swinton for 2 yds to the Ind 8Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+7
81.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Stephen Carr for 7 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
82.0%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to A.J. BarnerSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
82.7%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to A.J. BarnerSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+11
81.7%
Jack Tuttle run for 11 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
83.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
84.5%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Chester Kimbrough for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 23 Jack Tuttle fumbled, recovered by MchSt Chester Kimbrough , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4537% → 36%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
63.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
63.8%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1187% → 90%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.2%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
86.7%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Miles Marshall for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Maverick Hansen) to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
88.1%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 11 yards to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 21
OWN 26
0
86.5%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Chris ChildersSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 21
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Chris ChildersSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0335% → 30%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
64.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
64.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Ind 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
63.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 16Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-2
63.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+10
69.7%
INDIANA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Demarcus Elliott) to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-69.7
FG · Q4 8:31
Matt Coghlin 49 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
FG · Q2 6:55
Charles Campbell 25 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com