2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:15 · Donaven McCulley run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:58: Peyton Hendershot 7 Yd pass from Jack Tuttle (Charles Campbell Kick) — IU win probability +1.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:25: TreVeyon Henderson 21 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:47: TreVeyon Henderson 14 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:24: Chris Olave 16 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:45: TreVeyon Henderson 6 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 0:30IU 4th & 16 at IU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q2 6:14IU 4th & 19 at IU 16, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it6.4%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 3:27IU 4th & 2 at IU 28, down 30Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:15IU 4th & 5 at OSU 23, down 37Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−<0.140% to convertField goal1.1%70% to makePunt0.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:32OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 28, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q3 6:19IU 4th & 4 at IU 43, down 37Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:42IU 4th & 11 at IU 24, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 8:49OSU 4th & 6 at IU 8, up 44Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%90% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:32IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 2:49OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 48, up 47Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:50OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:58IU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.0%97% to makeGo for two15.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:25OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:47OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:24OSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:45OSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31OSU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:15OSU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1092% → 91%
Q1 14:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
8.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 8 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
8.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
10.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the Ind 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:5210% → 14%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
9.7%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
9.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
10.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-3
10.8%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Zach Harrison for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+7
10.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
11.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Miles Marshall for 12 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
14.3%
Peyton Hendershot 7 Yd pass from Jack Tuttle (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3386% → 89%
IUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5512% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:4389% → 91%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
11.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 9 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+13
11.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
9.5%
TreVeyon Henderson 14 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6SF5 plays · -22 yds · 2:0810% → 10%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
10.4%
Grant Gremel pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-5
10.2%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 20 Stephen Carr fumbled, recovered by Ind Matthew BedfordSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-6
10.0%
Grant Gremel sacked by Ty Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD8 plays · 39 yds · 1:3591% → 95%
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
8.3%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Ruckert, Jeremy for 14 yards to the INDIANA0, PENALTY OHIOST ineligible downfield on pass (Jones, Matthew) 5 yards to the INDIANA19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 2:107% → 7%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
6.9%
Jack Tuttle run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 18 Jack Tuttle fumbled, recovered by Ind Jack TuttleSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
7.1%
Donaven McCulley sacked by J.T. Tuimoloau and Taron Vincent for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+20
7.1%
James Evans punt for 34 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 20 yds to the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:2995% → 97%
IUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:133% → 3%
OSUDrive 11TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5697% → 98%
Q2 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
3.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
50
+15
2.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 15 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
2.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 6 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+13
2.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 13 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13DOWNS10 plays · 47 yds · 3:451% → 1%
Q3 14:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+30
1.3%
Donaven McCulley pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 30 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+10
1.3%
McCulley, Donaven pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the OHIOST43 (Harrison, Zach), PENALTY OHIOST holding (Brown, Cameron) 10 yards to the OHIOST30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
IUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:131% → 1%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
0.9%
Donaven McCulley sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
0.8%
Grant Gremel pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
0.7%
Grant Gremel pass complete to Javon Swinton for 3 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
0.7%
James Evans punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:0499% → 99%
Q3 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+5
0.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 5 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+18
0.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 18 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+25
0.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 25 yds to the Ind 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 14:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.2%
James Evans punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FG12 plays · 67 yds · 5:5399% → 100%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Evan Pryor for 10 yds to the OhSt 35 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 25Similar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
0.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Evan Pryor for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+20
0.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 20 yds to the Ind 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:170% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 40 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
0.3%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Chris Booker for 11 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
0.3%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the OhSt 31 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 19
OWN 21
+24
0.3%
Jack Miller III pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 17 yds · 2:230% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:24
Chris Olave 16 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)
-3.2
TD · Q2 12:47
TreVeyon Henderson 14 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)
-2.4
TD · Q1 1:25
TreVeyon Henderson 21 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)
-2.3