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IU

Indiana 0 at Penn State 24

PSU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.1PSU 99.2%Jordan Stout 50 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 24 · Q4 8:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:06 · Jordan Stout 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+4.7Home team on offense+31.6Score differential+22.4Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:28: Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:31: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:00: Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17 — PSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53: Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith — PSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:16: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 30 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10IU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 14:02IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:42IU 4th & 10 at IU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32PSU 4th & 7 at IU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:57IU 4th & 3 at IU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:13IU 4th & 1 at PSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:16IU 4th & 4 at IU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:54PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:16IU 4th & 9 at IU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:53PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:40PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 22, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:59IU 4th & 3 at IU 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:06PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 45, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:38IU 4th & 23 at IU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:16PSU 4th & 4 at IU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:29IU 4th & 6 at PSU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:36PSU 4th & 1 at IU 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:48IU 4th & 9 at IU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:06PSU 4th & 10 at IU 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:40IU 4th & 2 at PSU 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:43PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:28PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:31PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:16PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2819% → 19%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.5%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
81.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.4%
James Evans punt for 47 yds, downed at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2581% → 81%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
81.3%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+1
81.2%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
81.0%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
80.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
80.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:5819% → 20%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
80.8%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Ind 14Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
80.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+35
80.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 35 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
80.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
80.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
80.5%
James Evans punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:4780% → 82%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
80.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
80.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
79.9%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
80.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
80.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+9
80.2%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
80.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
80.0%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
79.8%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+9
79.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
79.9%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Johnson, Theo, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Williams, Jaylin) 15 yards to the INDIANA9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
79.8%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 10Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0819% → 19%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.2%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
80.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
81.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.4%
James Evans punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1181% → 81%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-23
81.2%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Raheem Layne II return for 23 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5720% → 20%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.8%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
79.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+9
80.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 9 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
80.2%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 96 yds · 3:3681% → 86%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
80.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+44
80.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 44 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
81.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
81.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 8 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
81.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 9 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+21
81.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 21 yds to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
81.8%
Jahan Dotson run for 1 yd to the Ind 3Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
82.3%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Strange, Brenton for 3 yards to the INDIANA0, PENALTY PENNST illegal touching (Strange, Brenton) 5 yards to the INDIANA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4415% → 15%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.8%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jacolby HewittSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
84.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.1%
James Evans punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1986% → 86%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
85.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 9 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-2
86.0%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
85.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0414% → 14%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
85.6%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Ind 10Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
85.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 5 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+6
85.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
85.7%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+6
86.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
86.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
86.3%
James Evans punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0786% → 86%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
86.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
86.6%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
85.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:1614% → 15%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
86.2%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+18
86.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 18 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+34
86.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 34 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
84.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Joey Porter Jr. return for 1 yd to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2086% → 86%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
86.3%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
86.9%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
86.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
86.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2113% → 13%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
86.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
86.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+1
87.0%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
86.9%
James Evans punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5389% → 88%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-8
88.7%
Ford, Devyn rush for 6 yards to the PENNST22, PENALTY PENNST holding (Hansard, Fred) 8 yards to the PENNST8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+12
88.3%
Devyn Ford run for 12 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3489% → 89%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
88.6%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
88.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
89.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
89.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
88.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:2511% → 11%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
88.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+14
88.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 14 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
88.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-1
88.9%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Brandon Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 16
OWN 20
-7
89.2%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 23
OWN 13
+2
89.4%
James Evans punt for 50 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:5491% → 96%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.6%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
90.7%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Cain, Noah for loss of 9 yards to the PENNST32, PENALTY INDIANA offside (Handy, Jaren) 5 yards to the PENNST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+7
91.0%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
91.7%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+13
91.1%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.1%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
92.1%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
92.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+30
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 30 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:163% → 2%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+24
97.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 24 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
97.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 27 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
97.2%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+5
97.7%
Charles Campbell 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Brandon Smith Derrick Tangelo return for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:1998% → 99%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.2%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
98.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+20
98.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 20 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
98.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 17 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
98.6%
Jahan Dotson pass complete to Parker Washington for 21 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
98.7%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre for 7 yards to the INDIANA13, PENALTY PENNST holding (Wallace, Caedan) 10 yards to the INDIANA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
98.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+6
98.7%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+18
98.7%
Sean Clifford run for 18 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.0%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Ind 4Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.0%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.0%
Tyler Warren run for no gain to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Ind 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.0%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Stephen Carr) to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.0%
Jack Tuttle run for 1 yd to the Ind 2Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
99.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
99.0%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+16
99.1%
James Evans punt for 46 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 16 yds to the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
99.2%
Jordan Stout 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.3%
Jack Tuttle run for 10 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 4 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
99.4%
Jack Tuttle run for no gain to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tariq Castro-Fields) to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Chris Childers for 8 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+7
99.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
99.4%
Jack Tuttle pass intercepted for a 1ST down Ji'Ayir Brown return for 4 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jonathan Sutherland) to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:3299% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+10
99.4%
John Lovett run for 10 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.4%
John Lovett run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.5%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
99.6%
John Lovett run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+1
99.6%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ty Fryfogle at the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.6%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+10
99.6%
Stephen Carr run for 10 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.7%
Stephen Carr run for 11 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:16
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 30 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 13:31
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q1 5:28
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds for a TD, (Jordan Stout KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com