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CIN

Cincinnati 38 at Indiana 24

IU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:54 · Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ind 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior−11.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:33: Jerome Ford 6 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick) — CIN win probability +11.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:47: Jerome Ford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +18.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:54: D.J. Matthews Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +20.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:41: Jared Smolar kickoff for 64 yds , Tre Tucker return for 99 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith PAT MISSED) — CIN win probability +23.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 12:13: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +27.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:06CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37IU 4th & 11 at IU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:54CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:28IU 4th & 6 at IU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:18CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09IU 4th & 1 at CIN 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:36CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01CIN 4th & 6 at IU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:18IU 4th & 6 at IU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09CIN 4th & 12 at IU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:16IU 4th & 15 at IU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:34CIN 4th & 1 at IU 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−2.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−10.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41IU 4th & 9 at CIN 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:22IU 4th & 1 at IU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.2%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:27CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:48IU 4th & 10 at IU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:15IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:10IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:33CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:47CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:54IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:41CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:13CIN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:37CIN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.7%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1962% → 62%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
37.8%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-5
37.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
37.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+9
37.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
37.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, downed at the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3538% → 38%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
38.3%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
38.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
38.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
38.3%
James Evans punt for 55 yds, downed at the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3662% → 61%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
38.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
38.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+3
38.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+11
38.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 11 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
39.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1539% → 39%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
39.2%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-2
39.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+3
39.2%
James Evans punt for 38 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4261% → 60%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.4%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
39.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
39.9%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Marcelino McCrary-Ball return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2240% → 45%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+6
40.4%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+14
40.8%
D.J. Matthews Jr. run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
41.2%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
41.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+7
41.3%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
45.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 16 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5556% → 55%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
44.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
44.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
44.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
45.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:0445% → 49%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews Jr.Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
45.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stephen Carr for 9 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
45.7%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
46.7%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+10
47.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 10 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
47.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
48.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+6
48.6%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
48.6%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
49.6%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-1
50.4%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
50.0%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
49.4%
Michael Penix Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2551% → 48%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
48.9%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
49.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
49.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:0352% → 58%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
51.5%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
52.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jabari Taylor) to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
53.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
53.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 28 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.2%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
54.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+14
54.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 14 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
55.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
57.1%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-10
57.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Bryan Cook return for no gain CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0544% → 44%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
56.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
56.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+21
57.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 21 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
54.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-23
55.8%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Ryder Anderson for a loss of 23 yards to the Cincy 6 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by Cincy John Williams , return for 0 yards John Williams fumbled, recovered by Ind Micah McFadden , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3260% → 70%
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
60.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stephen Carr for 5 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
70.0%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3734% → 47%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
67.2%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
67.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.1%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete, PENALTY INDIANA personal foul 15 yards to the CINCINNATI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
67.6%
Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
67.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
67.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
67.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
65.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds to the Ind 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
65.3%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Ind 6Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
53.5%
Jerome Ford 6 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3660% → 63%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
60.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+13
59.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
62.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for 4 yds to the Ind 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:1944% → 44%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
56.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 28 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
55.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 4 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
56.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
57.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
55.8%
Cole Smith 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2454% → 52%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
53.6%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
53.9%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
52.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+27
51.8%
James Evans punt for 38 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 27 yds to the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0152% → 44%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
47.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-14
47.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the Ind 23 CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+8
51.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-2
50.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
55.9%
Cole Smith 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5356% → 56%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
55.5%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Matthew Bedford) to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
58.3%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
58.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
57.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Davion Ervin-PoindexterSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 15
OWN 27
-5
56.2%
James Evans punt for 47 yds , Tre Tucker returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2743% → 67%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
56.8%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+8
57.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 8 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
56.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 26 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
53.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 21 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
51.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 6 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-2
53.2%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 18Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+5
56.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+3
55.1%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
51.9%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.3%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4641% → 68%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+44
41.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 44 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
47.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 8 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
47.4%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
67.6%
D.J. Matthews Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:5044% → 57%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.1%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
43.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+29
38.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 29 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
45.9%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
46.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+10
45.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
47.8%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
47.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
45.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
57.1%
Charles Campbell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1744% → 81%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.6%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
54.5%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
54.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 11 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
52.4%
INDIANA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
50.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
50.1%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
48.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 8 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
20.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
19.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FUMBLE
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:3231% → 38%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.2%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
29.3%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
28.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
30.4%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
32.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+37
29.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 37 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
35.8%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
35.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 16 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
37.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (2 Yards) to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-2
37.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 4 Tim Baldwin Jr. fumbled, recovered by Cincy Darrian BeaversSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4576% → 82%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
24.2%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+3
23.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
19.7%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
19.4%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
18.1%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
17.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
17.8%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
17.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews Jr. at the Ind 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5225% → 21%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
24.5%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
21.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-39
20.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 39 yds to the Ind 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2691% → 98%
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
9.1%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Ind 6Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
8.7%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 7Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD, (Desmond Ridder pass to Leonard Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
1.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 18 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
1.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
1.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Matt BjorsonSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
1.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:13
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
-27.4
TD · Q3 3:41
Jared Smolar kickoff for 64 yds , Tre Tucker return for 99 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith PAT MISSED)
-23
TD · Q3 3:54
D.J. Matthews Jr. run for 14 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com