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Northwestern 14 at Illinois 47

ILL
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:09 · Derek Adams punt for 38 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 37 yds to the Nwest 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense+17.0Score differential+11.1Pregame prior+13.8Blowout margin+0.5Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:08: Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 39 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +3.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:50: Chase Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +6.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:22: Isaiah Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:58: Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +3.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 1:44: James McCourt 37 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 13:21ILL 4th & 4 at NU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49NU 4th & 6 at NU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:49NU 4th & 6 at NU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:19ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:43NU 4th & 15 at NU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:08NU 4th & 1 at NU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:10NU 4th & 5 at ILL 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:22NU 4th & 1 at ILL 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−3.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    -5.2%−13.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:07ILL 4th & 7 at NU 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:09NU 4th & 9 at NU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:44ILL 4th & 2 at NU 19, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:24NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:54NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:54ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 48, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:15ILL 4th & 3 at NU 31, up 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:08NU 4th & 19 at NU 31, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:41ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 41, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:37NU 4th & 19 at NU 10, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:13NU 4th & 5 at NU 18, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:51NU 4th & 2 at ILL 23, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:26ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:08ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:50ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:22ILL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:58NU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:59ILL Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:24NU Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:3975% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
74.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
74.5%
Brandon Peters run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
74.5%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3226% → 26%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
74.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
74.2%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
74.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
74.1%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
74.1%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
74.2%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Andrew ClairSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+14
73.8%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 42 , Donny Navarro III returns for 14 yds to the Nwest 32 ILLINOIS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Gay) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+14
73.8%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 43 , Donny Navarro III returns for 14 yds to the Illin 32 ILLINOIS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Gay) to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3074% → 73%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
73.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
74.0%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
73.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
73.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by JJ Jefferson at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4827% → 27%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
73.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
73.0%
Andrew Marty sacked for 0 yards to the Nwest 8 Andrew Marty fumbled, recovered by Illin Isaiah Gay , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
75.6%
Daniel Barker run for 8 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4325% → 24%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.0%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
74.9%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
75.0%
Andrew Marty sacked by Tarique Barnes for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 20 Andrew Marty fumbled, recovered by Nwest Andrew Marty , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+17
75.6%
Derek Adams punt for 46 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 17 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:3576% → 79%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 12
OWN 49
+12
75.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
78.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 39 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:5822% → 21%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.6%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
77.4%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
77.3%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
77.2%
PENALTY NWU False Start (Wrather,Ben) 5 yards from NWU46 to NWU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
77.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
77.4%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.2%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
77.2%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
77.2%
Andrew Clair run for 15 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
76.7%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
76.7%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+1
77.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
78.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:1081% → 88%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.6%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Chase BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+10
80.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
80.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 56 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.3%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
81.3%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2013% → 12%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.4%
Ryan Hilinski run for 9 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
87.6%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
88.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
93.6%
Isaiah Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:246% → 11%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
93.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 27 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
93.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 18 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
92.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
92.6%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
92.3%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
92.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+14
92.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 14 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.4%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
92.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.0%
Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5191% → 92%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
91.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 27 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+31
91.4%
Chase Brown run for 31 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
91.4%
Joshua McCray run for 8 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-15
91.4%
PENALTY ILL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Reiman,Tip) 15 yards from NWU05 to NWU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
91.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+10
91.2%
Brandon Peters run for 10 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
92.4%
James McCourt 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:588% → 8%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.7%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
91.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Andrew ClairSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+37
92.1%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 37 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2594% → 97%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.5%
Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+1
93.5%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+3
93.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
97.2%
James McCourt 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:202% → 2%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke FordSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
97.6%
Brandon Peters run for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
97.6%
Brandon Peters sacked by Sean McLaughlin for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+8
97.2%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
97.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
97.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+21
97.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 21 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
97.9%
James McCourt 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:062% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.2%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
98.0%
PENALTY NWU False Start (Robinson, Jr.,Stephon) 5 yards from NWU34 to NWU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Derek Adams punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:3999% → 99%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.7%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
98.7%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
98.5%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+14
98.4%
Chase Brown run for 14 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
98.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
98.7%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+2
98.7%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
99.3%
James McCourt 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.3%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-15
99.3%
Hilinski,Ryan pass incomplete PENALTY NWU Pass Interference (Niro III,Raymond) 15 yards from NWU42 to NWU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 23
OWN 27
+4
99.4%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 19
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Patrick Bryant for 11 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.5%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Patrick BryantSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+8
99.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 8 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.6%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 11
OWN 18
-8
99.6%
Ryan Hilinski sacked by Tony Adams for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
99.7%
Derek Adams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
99.6%
Chase Brown run for 29 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.6%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-10
99.6%
Brown,Chase rush for 6 yards gain to the NWU07 (Azema,Coco) PENALTY ILL Holding (Pearl,Julian) 10 yards from NWU13 to NWU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 17
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke FordSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 17
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Brandon Peters pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
99.8%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+1
99.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Jake Genyk punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:14100% → 100%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.8%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
99.8%
Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
99.7%
Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
99.8%
Joshua McCray run for 10 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
99.8%
Love III,Reggie rush for 23 yards gain to the NWU05 (Jackson,Bryce) PENALTY ILL Holding (Ford,Luke) 10 yards from NWU28 to NWU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+6
99.8%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+15
99.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Michael Marchese for 15 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.8%
Daniel Barker run for 7 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
99.8%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Joshua McCray run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:270% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 17 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+20
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 20 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 15 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
100.0%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:50
Chase Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 11:22
Isaiah Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
+5.2
FG · Q2 1:44
James McCourt 37 yd FG GOOD
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com