Try the model
ILL

Illinois 14 at Minnesota 6

MINN
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:45 · Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+6.3Home team on offense−35.0Score differential−17.5Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:07: Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 01:07 — ILL win probability +7.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — MINN win probability +8.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:33: Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 32 — ILL win probability +8.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:29: Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 46 ILLINOIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel Barker) to the Illin 31 — ILL win probability +8.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:49: Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett PAT MISSED) — MINN win probability +11.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 5:44MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:57MINN 4th & 1 at ILL 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−5.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:47ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 31, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:43MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:11ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−4.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03MINN 4th & 18 at ILL 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:27ILL 4th & 15 at MINN 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:39MINN 4th & 6 at ILL 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:24ILL 4th & 18 at MINN 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:43MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:45ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:49MINN 4th & 1 at ILL 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12ILL 4th & 3 at MINN 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:15ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:49MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4984% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
83.9%
Ky Thomas run for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
83.7%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
83.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-6
83.3%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Tarique Barnes return for 6 yds to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4317% → 20%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
83.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 9 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
82.8%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
82.6%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
82.3%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
82.1%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
82.0%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
81.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Michael Marchese for 15 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.9%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2180% → 79%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.3%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
80.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Axel Ruschmeyer) to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
80.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Sydney Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 18 Tanner Morgan fumbled, forced by Sydney Brown, recovered by Minn Tanner Morgan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
78.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 13 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
78.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 55 yds, downed at the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:4921% → 31%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
78.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Josh Kreutz) to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+10
78.7%
Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
78.2%
Brandon Peters run for 11 yds to the Illin 30 Brandon Peters fumbled, recovered by Illin Brandon Peters for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
77.5%
Chase Brown run for 19 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
76.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
76.3%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
75.8%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
75.0%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
74.3%
Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
73.8%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
73.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 8 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
68.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Tip Reiman for 15 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5270% → 67%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
70.2%
Cole Kramer run for 13 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
70.1%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Ko Kieft for 20 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
69.9%
Cole Kramer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
69.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+11
68.2%
Tanner Morgan run for 11 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
67.1%
Cole Kramer run for no gain to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5835% → 38%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
63.8%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
63.2%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
62.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 52 yds, downed at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3162% → 58%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
62.2%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
61.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
61.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ky Thomas for 11 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
60.7%
Cole Kramer run for 9 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
60.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 5 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
60.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+5
59.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ky Thomas for 5 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
58.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Ky ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
57.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2044% → 45%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
56.5%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
55.5%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+5
55.7%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+10
54.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds , Brock Annexstad returns for 10 yds to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2757% → 53%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
56.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
50
-1
55.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
54.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
53.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3449% → 51%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
50.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
49.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-4
49.0%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 11
OWN 9
+13
49.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Brock Annexstad returns for 13 yds to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3352% → 46%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
51.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 24 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
52.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Roderick Perry II for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-10
44.7%
Morgan, Tanner rush for 5 yards to the ILLINOIS15, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding 10 yards to the ILLINOIS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 21
OPP 30
0
44.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 21
OPP 30
+3
43.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ky Thomas for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+45
46.0%
Matthew Trickett 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:2854% → 65%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
44.7%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
43.4%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
41.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
40.3%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
38.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 6 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
37.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
35.7%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
33.3%
Caleb Griffin pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-7
33.1%
Brandon Peters sacked by Thomas Rush for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
35.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14DOWNS
19 plays · 60 yds · 6:2636% → 28%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
36.3%
Ky Thomas run for 8 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+2
36.5%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
34.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
34.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+15
33.7%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, Chris, PENALTY ILLINOIS roughing passer (Gay, Isaiah) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
35.6%
Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
37.0%
Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
36.2%
Thomas, Ky rush for 5 yards to the ILLINOIS44, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Ruschmeyer, Axel) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+8
33.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+12
33.6%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Brown-Stephens, Mike, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Witherspoon, Devon) 12 yards to the ILLINOIS39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
34.7%
Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
35.2%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
32.7%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
32.5%
Irving, Mar'Keise rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS26, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Faalele, Daniel) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+3
30.7%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 17
OPP 33
0
29.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+11
28.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 11 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 6
OPP 22
-7
28.3%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0980% → 87%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
19.9%
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
19.2%
Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+23
18.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 23 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
16.2%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
14.5%
Brown, Chase rush for 3 yards to the MINNESOTA29, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Palczewski, Alex) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
14.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+3
14.6%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 17
OPP 39
-1
12.4%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
12.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2419% → 17%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
19.3%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
18.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Isaiah Gay and Calvin Avery for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
17.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
17.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 39 yds, downed at the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4491% → 92%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
9.0%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 46 ILLINOIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel Barker) to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+1
9.3%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 24
OWN 32
+13
8.8%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
7.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
15 plays · 86 yds · 4:5013% → 21%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
12.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
11.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
10.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Mike Brown-StephensSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+15
10.2%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Brown-Stephens, Mike, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Adams, Tony) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
11.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-2
11.9%
Ky Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+10
10.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 10 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
10.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 9 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
11.9%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
10.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 17 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
10.4%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
9.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 7 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
10.1%
Thomas, Ky rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS1, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside 0 yards to the ILLINOIS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.8%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:3088% → 96%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.9%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
10.6%
Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
9.9%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
7.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
7.2%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+2
5.8%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
4.5%
Brandon Peters run for 3 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
3.5%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
4.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
4.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:264% → 4%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+36
4.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 36 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-11
4.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Isaiah Gay for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 21
OWN 27
-12
3.8%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Kerby Joseph return for 12 yds to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:49
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett PAT MISSED)
+11.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:33
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 32
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:29
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 46 ILLINOIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel Barker) to the Illin 31
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com