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RUTG

Rutgers 20 at Illinois 14

ILL
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:32 · Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Avery Young returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+4.5Pregame prior−2.2Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:13: Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 52 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +9.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:28: Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 26 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +11.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:16: Noah Vedral run for 15 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +16.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:53: Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +13.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08: Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41 — RUTG win probability +14.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 1 at ILL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19RUTG 4th & 8 at ILL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23RUTG 4th & 1 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:38ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:19RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:32ILL 4th & 10 at RUTG 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:53RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:42RUTG 4th & 6 at ILL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:59ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:12RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 26, up 3
    Close callPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:10RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:04RUTG 4th & 8 at ILL 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:20ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00RUTG 4th & 5 at ILL 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:14ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−5.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:42RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−2.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:29ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−3.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:53RUTG 4th & 7 at ILL 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−23.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:08ILL 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−13.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−14.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:20RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:13ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:28ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4155% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
44.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 24 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.7%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
44.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
44.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
44.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.7%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
44.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
44.7%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
45.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0146% → 46%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
45.7%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+4
45.7%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+3
45.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 3 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
45.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds , Avery Young returns for no gain to the Rutgr 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:5854% → 58%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
45.8%
Noah Vedral run for 12 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
45.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 13 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
45.6%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
45.4%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
45.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Shameen Jones for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
46.4%
Johnny Langan run for 2 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
45.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
45.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
45.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
42.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4244% → 43%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Deuce Spann for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
44.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+12
43.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds , Avery Young returns for 12 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1957% → 57%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
42.6%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
42.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+4
42.9%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
43.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4743% → 43%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.2%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
43.0%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+21
42.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 21 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
44.3%
Brandon Peters run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+8
44.7%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for no gain to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
44.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
42.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3958% → 57%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
42.2%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
42.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
42.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
43.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:4043% → 53%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
42.9%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 33 Chase Brown fumbled, forced by Ifeanyi Maijeh, recovered by IllinSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+8
42.6%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+7
43.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 7 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
52.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 52 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2451% → 55%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
49.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
48.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
49.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+20
49.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Victor Konopka for 20 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
47.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+26
47.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 26 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.3%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Johnny LanganSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
46.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
47.0%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
44.8%
Valentino Ambrosio 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4347% → 47%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
48.5%
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
47.9%
Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
46.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4754% → 53%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
46.5%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
47.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Brandon Sanders for 5 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
46.9%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
46.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4447% → 62%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
47.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 31 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
50.3%
Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
50.6%
Chase Brown run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
61.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 26 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:0939% → 37%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
60.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 9 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
58.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
59.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
57.3%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
57.5%
PENALTY RUT False Start (Pierce,Hollin) 5 yards from RUT47 to RUT42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
59.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Johnny LanganSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 7
OWN 42
-5
61.3%
PENALTY RUT Delay Of Game 5 yards from RUT42 to RUT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
62.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
58.0%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:2857% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
57.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 10 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
57.6%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
58.3%
Williams,Isaiah rush for 7 yards gain to the ILL43 (Singleton,Drew) PENALTY ILL Chop Block (Barker,Daniel) 15 yards from ILL36 to ILL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+7
57.1%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+3
56.9%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+8
55.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+5
60.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds , Avery Young returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:2840% → 44%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
60.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
59.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
57.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
58.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 6 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
56.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
56.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
55.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+9
56.6%
Kyle Monangai run for 9 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
55.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
54.7%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Jovani HaskinsSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
56.6%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Brandon SandersSimilar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
56.0%
Valentino Ambrosio 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4459% → 56%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
58.5%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Kramer,Doug) 5 yards from ILL28 to ILL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
57.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+7
57.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
56.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 57 yds , Avery Young returns for no gain to the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 5:0442% → 65%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
57.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
58.2%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+27
59.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Johnny Langan for 27 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
53.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
53.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+7
53.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 7 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
53.2%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
51.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
53.6%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+13
57.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Bo Melton for 13 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
51.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
35.4%
Noah Vedral run for 15 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:0244% → 39%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.4%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
45.1%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
43.8%
Peters,Brandon pass complete to Marchese,Michael for 5 yards to the ILL37 (Singleton,Drew) PENALTY ILL Face Mask (Pearl,Julian) 15 yards from ILL32 to ILL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
42.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Chase BrownSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
39.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds , Avery Young returns for no gain to the Rutgr 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:3265% → 66%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
35.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
35.5%
Pacheco,Isaih rush for 5 yards gain to the RUT49 (Tolson,Khalan) PENALTY RUT Illegal Formation 5 yards from RUT44 to RUT39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+7
37.7%
Noah Vedral run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+3
36.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
33.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1340% → 36%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
39.5%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
39.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+1
37.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
35.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:3671% → 85%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
29.3%
Noah Vedral run for 10 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
27.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+20
27.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 20 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
27.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
27.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.2%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
15.5%
Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:4526% → 23%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.4%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
29.1%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
30.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
30.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 12 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
32.9%
Jakari Norwood run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
33.6%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
33.0%
Jakari Norwood run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
23.4%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0891% → 96%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
9.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
5.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
5.4%
Noah Vedral run for 9 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
4.2%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:16
Noah Vedral run for 15 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
-16.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:08
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41
-14.2
FG · Q4 3:53
Valentino Ambrosio 25 yd FG GOOD
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com