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WIS

Wisconsin 24 at Illinois 0

ILL
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense−20.4Pregame prior−13.3Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:14: Collin Larsh 25 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:27: John Chenal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:38: Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:52: Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 26 — ILL win probability +2.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:00: Braelon Allen run for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:58ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:58WIS 4th & 3 at ILL 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14WIS 4th & 7 at ILL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:12ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:17WIS 4th & 1 at ILL 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:05ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:44ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:25ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:55WIS 4th & 5 at ILL 38, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:32ILL 4th & 8 at WIS 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:41ILL 4th & 10 at WIS 22, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:27WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:38WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:00WIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0220% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
19.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
20.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 9:4480% → 76%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
20.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
20.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.1%
John Chenal run for 6 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
20.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
20.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
20.0%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-10
20.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
20.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for no gain to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+7
20.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+4
20.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
20.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
20.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 8 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
20.0%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
20.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.0%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
24.2%
Collin Larsh 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0224% → 24%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
24.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 6 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
23.9%
Brandon Peters sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
24.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1976% → 75%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
24.2%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Ferguson,Jake) 5 yards from WIS41 to WIS36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+13
24.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
24.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
24.1%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
24.5%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
24.6%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3626% → 26%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
25.7%
Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+2
25.7%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+15
25.2%
Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hicks,Faion) 15 yards from ILL01 to ILL16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
25.9%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
25.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
25.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
26.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:5073% → 80%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
26.7%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
26.1%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
26.4%
Jack Dunn run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+10
26.8%
Graham Mertz run for 10 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.7%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+23
25.8%
Braelon Allen run for 23 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
25.1%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
25.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
25.5%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
26.3%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
25.0%
Braelon Allen run for 17 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
John Chenal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:0721% → 21%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.2%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
21.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
20.9%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Bryant,Pat PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Williams,Caesar) 10 yards from ILL29 to ILL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
21.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
21.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick BryantSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
20.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3578% → 77%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
21.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
21.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+2
22.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
22.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 56 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:4021% → 21%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
21.2%
Chase Brown run for 23 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
22.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
21.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick BryantSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
20.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 2:0578% → 79%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
21.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
21.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
21.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
21.1%
Brady Schipper run for 7 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2279% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.0%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Seltzner,Josh) 5 yards from WIS25 to WIS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
21.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
21.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chez MellusiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
21.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 13 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
20.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 8 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
19.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
19.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
19.8%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
20.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 4 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
19.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
20.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
19.6%
Braelon Allen run for 12 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
10.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5412% → 12%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
11.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
11.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5289% → 91%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
10.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 26 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
9.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 22
OWN 44
+6
10.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 16
50
+12
10.2%
Chimere Dike run for 12 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
10.0%
Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
8.6%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Illin 27 Braelon Allen fumbled, forced by Tarique Barnes, recovered by Illin Kerby JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0711% → 11%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
11.1%
Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+15
10.9%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Roughing The Passer (Herbig,Nick) 15 yards from ILL26 to ILL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
12.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
11.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
11.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
11.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:4591% → 98%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
8.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 8 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+23
8.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 23 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
8.0%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
7.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 21 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
2.0%
Braelon Allen run for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:353% → 2%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.9%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
2.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
2.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
2.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
2.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+2
2.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 2 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
2.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3098% → 98%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
1.7%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
1.7%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
1.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
1.6%
Conor Schlichting punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:142% → 1%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
1.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
1.8%
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+10
1.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
1.9%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Melvin,Semar) 15 yards from ILL27 to ILL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
2.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 7 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+16
2.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 16 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
2.2%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
2.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
2.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
1.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick BryantSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
1.3%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Bryant,Pat, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Burton,Donte) 11 yard from WIS33 to WIS22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
1.4%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
1.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
1.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 56 yds · 6:4199% → 100%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
1.0%
Kendric Pryor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
1.0%
Brady Schipper run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
1.0%
Graham Mertz run for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.9%
Jack Dunn run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
0.9%
Brady Schipper run for 10 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
0.9%
Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
0.9%
Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.9%
John Chenal run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
0.3%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
0.3%
John Chenal run for 5 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:38
Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 1:00
Braelon Allen run for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q2 5:27
John Chenal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com