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ILL

Illinois 20 at Penn State 18

PSU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGTDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:57 · J.Stout punts 55 yards to ILL 6, Center-PSU. Downed by C.Jacobs.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 67Pregame prior+29.1Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 11:54: J.McCourt 37 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL. — ILL win probability +8.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · OT 0:00: J.Stout 31 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU. — PSU win probability +21.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · OT 0:00: J.McCourt 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL. — ILL win probability +26.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · OT2 0:00: J.McCourt 22 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL. — ILL win probability +15.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: J.Stout 40 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU. — PSU win probability +29.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:25PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17PSU 4th & 8 at ILL 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:57PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:40ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:14PSU 4th & 20 at PSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:24PSU 4th & 10 at ILL 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:45ILL 4th & 8 at PSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:31PSU 4th & 10 at ILL 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:54ILL 4th & 15 at PSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:26PSU 4th & 23 at PSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−10.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:52ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−4.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:43PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−8.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:59ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1INT
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:176% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.2%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 34 for 9 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 34.Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
94.0%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington. PENALTY on PSU-T.Castro-Fields, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+18
94.0%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 32 for 18 yards. Tackled by T.Castro-Fields at PSU 32.Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
93.8%
A.Sitkowski pass INTERCEPTED at PSU 32. Intercepted by C.Jacobs at PSU 32. Tackled by ILL at PSU 34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:1294% → 93%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
93.9%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 31 for -3 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes at PSU 31.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+1
93.7%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 32 for 1 yards. Tackled by K.Tolson; D.Witherspoon at PSU 32.Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-5
93.5%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford sacked at PSU 27 for -5 yards (O.Carney)Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 17
OWN 27
+38
93.3%
J.Stout punts 38 yards to ILL 35, Center-PSU. Out of bounds. PENALTY on ILL-E.Smith, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:327% → 7%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.3%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 34 for 9 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 34.Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
93.1%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 44 for 10 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 44.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
92.9%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 44. Catch made by I.Williams at ILL 44. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at ILL 45.Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
92.8%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 46 for 1 yards. Tackled by B.Smith at ILL 46.Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
92.7%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington.Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+42
92.7%
B.Hayes punts 42 yards to PSU 12, Center-ILL. Fair catch by J.Dotson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1793% → 92%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
92.6%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 25 for 13 yards. Tackled by J.Martin; T.Strain at PSU 25.Similar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.6%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 33 for 8 yards. Tackled by S.Brown; K.Tolson at PSU 33.Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
92.5%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 33 for 0 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes at PSU 33.Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.2%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 34 for 1 yards. Tackled by D.Witherspoon; K.Tolson at PSU 34.Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+55
91.9%
J.Stout punts 55 yards to ILL 11, Center-PSU. Fair catch by D.Navarro.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:018% → 10%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
91.9%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 10 for -1 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker; D.Tangelo at ILL 10.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+8
91.7%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 18 for 8 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at ILL 18.Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
91.6%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 18. Catch made by C.Brown at ILL 18. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at ILL 24.Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
91.3%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 39 for 15 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at ILL 39.Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.9%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 39 for 0 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks; J.Porter at ILL 39.Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
90.7%
C.Washington steps back to pass. C.Washington pass incomplete intended for I.Williams.Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.8%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 46 for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at ILL 46.Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+47
90.3%
B.Hayes punts 47 yards to PSU 7, Center-ILL. Downed by K.Smith.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:4791% → 92%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
90.6%
N.Cain rushed to PSU 11 for 4 yards. Tackled by K.Randolph; I.Gay at PSU 11.Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+11
90.4%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 11. Catch made by J.Dotson at PSU 11. Gain of 11 yards. J.Dotson FUMBLES, forced by E.Smith. Fumble RECOVERED by PSU-P.Washington at PSU 22. Tackled by at PSU 22.Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+36
90.2%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 22. Catch made by J.Dotson at PSU 22. Gain of 36 yards. Tackled by J.Martin at ILL 42.Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
92.2%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 42. Catch made by K.Lambert-Smith at ILL 42. Gain of 42 yards. K.Lambert-Smith for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:098% → 9%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 26 for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa at ILL 26.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
91.6%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 34 for 8 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Brisker at ILL 34.Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 37 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Jacobs; B.Smith at ILL 37.Similar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
91.2%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 39 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Jacobs; A.Vanover at ILL 39.Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-14
90.9%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski sacked at ILL 25 for -14 yards (B.Smith) A.Sitkowski FUMBLES, forced by B.Smith. Fumble RECOVERED by PSU-D.Ellies at ILL 25. Tackled by ILL at ILL 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3692% → 92%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.8%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 38 for 2 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes; J.Newton at ILL 38.Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+19
91.8%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 38. Catch made by B.Strange at ILL 38. Gain of 19 yards. Tackled by K.Tolson at ILL 19.Similar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
91.8%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 17 for 2 yards. Tackled by R.Perry; J.Newton at ILL 17.Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
91.7%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
91.4%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for P.Washington.Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 8
OPP 17
0
91.5%
J.Stout 35 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:139% → 16%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 25 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa; N.Tarburton at ILL 25.Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
A.Sitkowski scrambles to ILL 31 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at ILL 31.Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.4%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 31. Catch made by D.Barker at ILL 31. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 36.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.1%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 40 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Brown; K.King at ILL 40.Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+27
90.8%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 33 for 27 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Brown at PSU 33.Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.3%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 33 for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Tangelo at PSU 33.Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
90.2%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 25 for 8 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at PSU 25.Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
90.2%
A.Sitkowski rushed to PSU 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Katshir at PSU 22.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
89.7%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for L.Ford.Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
89.8%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 16 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa at PSU 16.Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
89.9%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 12 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at PSU 12.Similar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
89.3%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 7 for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Castro-Fields at PSU 7.Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
89.2%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 4 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Izzard at PSU 4.Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
89.7%
A.Sitkowski rushed to PSU 1 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Izzard; A.Ebiketie at PSU 1.Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.0%
C.Brown rushed to PSU End Zone for 1 yards. C.Brown for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5586% → 85%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.1%
J.Lovett rushed to PSU 43 for 18 yards. Tackled by J.Woods at PSU 43.Similar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
86.9%
J.Lovett rushed to PSU 45 for 2 yards. Tackled by I.Gay at PSU 45.Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
86.9%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson. PENALTY on PSU-J.Scruggs, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, declined.Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-6
85.9%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford sacked at PSU 39 for -6 yards (K.Tolson)Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 14
OWN 39
+55
84.6%
J.Stout punts 55 yards to ILL 6, Center-PSU. Downed by C.Jacobs.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0614% → 14%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
85.7%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 23 for 17 yards. Tackled by T.Castro-Fields at ILL 23.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
85.4%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 23. Catch made by D.Navarro at ILL 23. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 31.Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
84.4%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 31. Catch made by D.Navarro at ILL 31. Gain of 4 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Castro-Fields at ILL 35.Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
84.9%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski sacked at ILL 31 for -4 yards (J.Luketa; A.Ebiketie)Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
85.2%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington.Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
85.8%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington.Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+37
86.1%
B.Hayes punts 37 yards to PSU 32, Center-ILL. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2085% → 84%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.2%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
85.0%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for K.Lambert-Smith.Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-2
84.2%
J.Lovett rushed to PSU 30 for -2 yards. Tackled by J.Martin at PSU 30.Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+53
83.5%
J.Stout punts 53 yards to ILL 17, Center-PSU. Fair catch by D.Navarro.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
84.7%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 23 for 6 yards. Tackled by C.Izzard; T.Castro-Fields at ILL 23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:4685% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.7%
K.Lee rushed to PSU 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by O.Carney at PSU 29.Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
84.8%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 29. Catch made by P.Washington at PSU 29. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by J.Martin at PSU 35.Similar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
85.3%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 35. Catch made by J.Dotson at PSU 35. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by T.Adams at PSU 50.Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
86.8%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
86.8%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for PSU. PENALTY on PSU-N.Cain, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
85.1%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for N.Cain.Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
84.3%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+48
83.6%
J.Stout punts 48 yards to ILL 12, Center-PSU. Downed by PSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4916% → 19%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
84.0%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 17 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at ILL 17.Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+22
83.7%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 39 for 22 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at ILL 39.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.2%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 39 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at ILL 39.Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
82.1%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 39. Catch made by I.Williams at ILL 39. Gain of 6 yards. I.Williams ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-11
81.4%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski sacked at ILL 34 for -11 yards (D.Tangelo) A.Sitkowski FUMBLES, forced by D.Tangelo. Fumble RECOVERED by PSU-J.Brisker at ILL 34. Tackled by ILL at ILL 22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3886% → 83%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
85.8%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 19 for 3 yards. Tackled by R.Perry; T.Barnes at ILL 19.Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-3
85.5%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 19. Catch made by P.Washington at ILL 19. Gain of -3 yards. Tackled by T.Adams at ILL 22.Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
84.8%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson. PENALTY on PSU-M.Miranda, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, declined.Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
83.1%
J.Stout 40 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3418% → 20%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
82.1%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 50 for 28 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at ILL 50.Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
78.2%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 49 for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa at PSU 49.Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
78.9%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 49 for 0 yards. Tackled by B.Smith at PSU 49.Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
79.5%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington. PENALTY on PSU-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
77.5%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 32 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Jacobs at PSU 32.Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
77.1%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for L.Ford.Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
78.2%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington.Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
80.1%
J.McCourt 50 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0982% → 80%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.9%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for K.Lambert-Smith.Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
81.7%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 32. Catch made by J.Lovett at PSU 32. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by D.Witherspoon at PSU 34.Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
80.7%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 34. Catch made by P.Washington at PSU 34. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by D.Witherspoon at PSU 44. PENALTY on ILL-ILL, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.5%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for T.Johnson.Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
83.3%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 41. Catch made by J.Lovett at ILL 41. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by J.Martin at ILL 41.Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
81.9%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for PSU.Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+30
79.8%
J.Stout punts 30 yards to ILL 11, Center-PSU. Downed by C.Jacobs.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 7:2820% → 33%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
80.1%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 14 for 4 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks; A.Ebiketie at ILL 14.Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+17
79.9%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 32 for 17 yards. Tackled by N.Tarburton at ILL 32.Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
79.2%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 40 for 8 yards. Tackled by A.Ebiketie at ILL 40.Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
76.9%
A.Sitkowski rushed to ILL 42 for 2 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at ILL 42.Similar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
77.3%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 42 for 16 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at PSU 42.Similar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
74.9%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 36 for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Smith at PSU 36.Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+10
74.0%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 26 for 10 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at PSU 26.Similar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
72.4%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 21 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa; B.Smith at PSU 21.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
72.3%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 18 for 3 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at PSU 18.Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
74.4%
A.Sitkowski rushed to PSU 15 for 3 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at PSU 15.Similar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
72.4%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 14 for 1 yards. Tackled by A.Ebiketie at PSU 14.Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
72.0%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to PSU 14. Catch made by D.Barker at PSU 14. Gain of yards. D.Barker for yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ILL-C.Sandy, Offensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 24
OPP 29
0
70.5%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 29 for 0 yards. Tackled by PSU at PSU 29. PENALTY on PSU-A.Ebiketie, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
71.7%
C.Brown rushed to PSU End Zone for yards. C.Brown for yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ILL-A.Palczewski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
73.1%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for D.Barker.Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+5
73.7%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 19 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Luketa at PSU 19.Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
75.4%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for C.Washington.Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
66.9%
J.McCourt 37 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:2369% → 62%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.1%
J.Lovett rushed to PSU 27 for 2 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes; J.Newton at PSU 27.Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
68.8%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 27. Catch made by K.Lambert-Smith at PSU 27. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by S.Brown at PSU 32.Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
67.8%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 32. Catch made by J.Dotson at PSU 32. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by ILL at PSU 41. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion and the play was upheld.Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
70.9%
J.Lovett rushed to PSU 42 for 1 yards. Tackled by T.Adams at PSU 42.Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-3
69.4%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 42. Catch made by J.Dotson at PSU 42. Gain of -3 yards. Tackled by D.Witherspoon at PSU 39.Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-11
65.6%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford sacked at PSU 28 for -11 yards (D.Witherspoon)Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 23
OWN 28
+45
62.4%
J.Stout punts 45 yards to ILL 27, Center-PSU. Fair catch by D.Navarro.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:2439% → 41%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
61.1%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 31 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Brisker at ILL 31.Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
59.6%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 36 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at ILL 36.Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
56.4%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at ILL 39.Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
55.6%
J.McCray rushed to ILL 41 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Izzard at ILL 41.Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
53.9%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 41 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Jacobs; C.Izzard at ILL 41.Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-2
55.2%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski sacked at ILL 39 for -2 yards (A.Ebiketie)Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+46
58.9%
B.Hayes punts 46 yards to PSU 15, Center-ILL. Fair catch by J.Dotson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0162% → 55%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
62.0%
N.Cain rushed to PSU 21 for 6 yards. Tackled by K.Tolson; K.Randolph at PSU 21.Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+6
62.4%
N.Cain rushed to PSU 27 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Newton at PSU 27.Similar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
61.9%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 27. Catch made by K.Lambert-Smith at PSU 27. Gain of 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Adams at PSU 29.Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
61.3%
N.Cain rushed to PSU 34 for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes; K.Joseph at PSU 34.Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
60.7%
S.Clifford pass complete to PSU 34. Catch made by P.Washington at PSU 34. Gain of 4 yards. Pushed out of bounds by ILL at PSU 38.Similar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
62.3%
S.Clifford scrambles to PSU 36 for -2 yards. Tackled by ILL at PSU 36.Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+3
59.2%
N.Cain rushed to PSU 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by K.Randolph at PSU 39.Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
58.4%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for P.Washington.Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+51
55.1%
J.Stout punts 51 yards to ILL 10, Center-PSU. D.Navarro MUFFS catch. Fumble RECOVERED by ILL-T.Leitzsey at ILL 8. Tackled by PSU at PSU 39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23END OF HALF
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:2548% → 52%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
52.4%
A.Sitkowski rushed to ILL 14 for 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Porter at ILL 14.Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+10
51.8%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 24 for 10 yards. Tackled by J.Brown; A.Ebiketie at ILL 24.Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
51.1%
C.Brown rushed to ILL 42 for 18 yards. Tackled by J.Porter at ILL 42.Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.5%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for I.Williams.Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
47.6%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to ILL 42. Catch made by J.Norwood at ILL 42. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by B.Smith at ILL 44.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0068% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
67.5%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 25. Catch made by N.Cain at ILL 25. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by ILL at ILL 22.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
67.5%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 17 for 5 yards. Tackled by I.Gay at ILL 17.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
65.1%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 17. Catch made by T.Johnson at ILL 17. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by T.Adams at ILL 16.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
62.1%
T.Warren rushed to ILL 14 for 2 yards. Tackled by R.Perry at ILL 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
67.5%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 14. Catch made by B.Strange at ILL 14. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by O.Carney at ILL 9.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
67.5%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford pass incomplete intended for J.Dotson.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-4
65.1%
S.Clifford steps back to pass. S.Clifford sacked at ILL 13 for -4 yards (K.Joseph)Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
86.8%
J.Stout 31 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 49%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
71.3%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 19 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at PSU 19.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-2
71.2%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 21 for -2 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks; A.Ebiketie at PSU 21.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
77.2%
C.Washington steps back to pass. C.Washington pass incomplete intended for A.Sitkowski.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
51.1%
J.McCourt 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0060% → 73%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
39.9%
C.Brown rushed to PSU 24 for 1 yards. Tackled by E.Brooks at PSU 24.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
39.9%
A.Sitkowski pass complete to PSU 24. Catch made by D.Barker at PSU 24. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at PSU 18.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+11
42.4%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 7 for 11 yards. Tackled by J.Brown at PSU 7.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
39.8%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 6 for 1 yards. Tackled by A.Ebiketie at PSU 6.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
39.8%
J.McCray rushed to PSU 4 for 2 yards. Tackled by T.Castro-Fields at PSU 4.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.5%
A.Sitkowski steps back to pass. A.Sitkowski pass incomplete intended for L.Ford.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
26.7%
J.McCourt 22 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 61%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
37.8%
S.Clifford pass complete to ILL 25. Catch made by J.Dotson at ILL 25. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by T.Adams; J.Newton at ILL 24.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
35.6%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 17 for 7 yards. Tackled by T.Barnes at ILL 17.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
35.1%
N.Cain rushed to ILL 17 for 0 yards. Tackled by K.Randolph at ILL 17.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
31.9%
PENALTY on PSU-J.Stout, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
61.3%
J.Stout 40 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-61.3
FG · OT2 0:00
J.Stout 40 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-PSU, Holder-PSU.
+29.3
FG · OT 0:00
J.McCourt 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ILL, Holder-ILL.
-26.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com