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NEB

Nebraska 22 at Illinois 30

ILL
2021 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:51: Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +13.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:56: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +11.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:01: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:48: Adrian Martinez run for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +9.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:41: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED) — NEB win probability +7.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:24NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52ILL 4th & 16 at NEB 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:16ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15NEB 4th & 5 at ILL 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:34NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:11NEB 4th & 20 at NEB 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:17ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:09NEB 4th & 16 at ILL 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:23ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:41NEB 4th & 4 at ILL 4, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:54ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:11NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:25NEB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:51ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:56ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:01ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48NEB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:41NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3164% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.6%
Gabe Ervin run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
35.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 16 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.0%
Gabe Ervin run for no gain to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
36.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wyatt Liewer for 6 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
36.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
36.5%
Daniel Cerni punt for 26 yds, downed at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1237% → 37%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
36.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 19 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
37.1%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-3
37.2%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+9
37.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
37.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1163% → 61%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
37.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+11
37.6%
Gabe Ervin run for 11 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
37.8%
Gabe Ervin run for 1 yd to the Neb 13Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
37.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+6
38.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
38.7%
Daniel Cerni punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4SF
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:3539% → 40%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.5%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
39.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
38.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
39.7%
Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
39.9%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-9
39.8%
Brandon Peters sacked by Pheldarius Payne for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 17
OWN 40
-1
40.0%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:0841% → 41%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+45
40.9%
Mike Epstein run for 45 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
42.6%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-6
43.0%
Brandon Peters sacked by Deontre Thomas and Garrett Nelson for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-2
41.8%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Pheldarius Payne for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 16
OPP 37
+55
40.9%
James McCourt 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2159% → 63%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
41.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
40.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Neb 41 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Owen Carney Jr.) to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
40.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Markese Stepp for 30 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
39.9%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the Illin 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
40.2%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+4
40.8%
Samori Toure run for 4 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.8%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5939% → 38%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.6%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
39.8%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
39.5%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
38.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds , Cam Taylor-Britt returns for 2 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4562% → 66%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+43
38.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 43 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
36.7%
Gabe Ervin run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
36.8%
Gabe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
37.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Wyatt LiewerSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
36.5%
Samori Toure run for 5 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
37.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Austin AllenSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
33.8%
Connor Culp 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0935% → 50%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.9%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
35.2%
Jakari Norwood run for 12 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
35.3%
Jakari Norwood run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
35.5%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
34.7%
Sitkowski, Artur pass pass intercepted by Taylor-Britt, Cam at the ILLINOIS46, Taylor-Britt, Cam return 0 yards to the ILLINOIS46, PENALTY NEBRASKA roughing passer (Tannor, Caleb) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
36.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Tannor) to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
37.4%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
37.4%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
36.3%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
37.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Mike Epstein for 2 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
37.5%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+7
36.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 7 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.8%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:1257% → 55%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.7%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
42.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 9 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Austin AllenSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-7
41.9%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Calvin Hart Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
44.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Chris HickmanSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+7
44.7%
Daniel Cerni punt for 46 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:2546% → 47%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
46.4%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
47.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
47.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 21 yds Donny Navarro III fumbled, forced by Luke Reimer, recovered by Neb Myles FarmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1659% → 44%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Chris HickmanSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
41.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+41
56.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 6 yards Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Illin Calvin Hart Jr. , return for 41 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:2041% → 41%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
59.2%
Gabe Ervin run for 4 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-11
59.4%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 11 yards to the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:5760% → 83%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.0%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
60.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
62.9%
Chase Brown run for 15 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
64.1%
Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-3
64.1%
Artur Sitkowski run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
64.5%
Artur Sitkowski run for 9 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
66.3%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
66.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
67.8%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
69.6%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+14
69.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the Neb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.8%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Neb 2Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.4%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Neb 2Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3420% → 18%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Chris HickmanSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
80.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-10
79.7%
Martinez, Adrian rush for 2 yards to the NEBRASKA29, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Banks, Brant) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-7
81.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 10Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
82.0%
Daniel Cerni punt for 37 yds, downed at the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:0185% → 94%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
85.4%
Jakari Norwood run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+45
86.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Deuce Spann for 45 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1486% → 89%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.2%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
86.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 9 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.0%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
89.4%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
89.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:0115% → 12%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
84.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 18 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
83.2%
Gabe Ervin run for 5 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
84.5%
Martinez, Adrian pass complete to Toure, Samori for 24 yards to the ILLINOIS25, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Martin, Oliver) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 36
-1
86.8%
Gabe Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+28
86.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 28 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
84.5%
Martinez, Adrian rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS37, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Jurgens, Cameron) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-6
85.5%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Roderick Perry II for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 26
OWN 47
+10
87.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 10 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
87.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
87.9%
Daniel Cerni punt for 19 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3692% → 94%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.6%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
92.5%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.1%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
93.8%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
94.3%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 46 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
94.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
94.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
94.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD
20 plays · 91 yds · 6:349% → 14%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
91.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 9 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
89.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wyatt Liewer for 7 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.6%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
90.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 16 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
90.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
90.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 9 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
90.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for 7 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Rahmir Johnson run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+10
91.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 10 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-14
90.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Illin 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Gabe ErvinSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 24
OPP 41
+26
92.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 26 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
91.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 5 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
93.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Wyatt LiewerSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
93.2%
Gabe Ervin run for 5 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.4%
Gabe Ervin run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.7%
Gabe Ervin run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:3595% → 97%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.6%
Reggie Love III run for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
95.9%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
96.1%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
96.7%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
96.9%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:375% → 4%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+14
95.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 14 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
95.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Wyatt LiewerSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
95.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Wyatt LiewerSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:51
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q3 6:56
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+11
TD · Q3 3:48
Adrian Martinez run for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com