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ND

Notre Dame 45 at Stanford 14

STAN
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:23 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior−23.9Home team on offense−28.8Score differential−18.1Garbage-time factor−9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:30: Jack Coan pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:27: Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +1.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:47: Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:06: Austin Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +3.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:31: Jack Coan run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:39STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45ND 4th & 11 at ND 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27ND 4th & 5 at STAN 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03ND 4th & 2 at ND 11, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:23STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:00ND 4th & 18 at ND 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:32ND 4th & 10 at ND 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:08STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:01ND 4th & 4 at ND 28, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:39ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:30ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:47ND Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:06STAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:31ND Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:33ND Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:44STAN Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:58ND Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:528% → 9%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
8.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
8.5%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+5
8.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
8.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3691% → 91%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
9.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 33 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
9.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Offside Defense (Jordan Fox) to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+3
9.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
9.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
9.5%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
9.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 6 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
9.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 16 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5610% → 10%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.6%
E.J. Smith run for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
9.7%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
10.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
10.1%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
10.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2590% → 89%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
10.1%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+10
10.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
10.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-3
10.5%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2011% → 11%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
10.9%
E.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
11.1%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
11.2%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 3
OWN 33
-5
11.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 3:10
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
11.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2289% → 91%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
11.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
10.9%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+14
11.0%
Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
10.9%
Jack Coan sacked by Kendall Williamson for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+15
11.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 15 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
11.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
11.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
11.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (2 Yards) to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2610% → 10%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.1%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
10.2%
Tanner McKee sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 13 yards to the Stanf 23 Tanner McKee fumbled, forced by Rylie Mills, recovered by NDame Justin Ademilola , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1591% → 92%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
9.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 19
OPP 32
-5
9.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 24
OPP 37
0
9.4%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 24
OPP 37
+5
9.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+14
9.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
7.9%
Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:249% → 9%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
8.9%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
8.9%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
8.9%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
8.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5592% → 95%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
7.8%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
7.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 24 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
8.0%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
8.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 12 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
7.9%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+17
7.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 5 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
7.6%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
7.6%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Stanf 4Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
7.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.5%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:387% → 6%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
6.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
7.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
7.2%
E.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
7.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
7.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Block (Austin Jones) to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+6
6.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 19
OWN 47
0
6.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for no gain to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+2
6.7%
Tanner McKee run for 2 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
6.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds, downed at the NDame 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3096% → 96%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
4.2%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 1
OWN 12
0
4.1%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 1
OWN 12
-1
4.1%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
4.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 30 yds, downed at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+59
6.0%
Joshua Karty 59 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0696% → 96%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.3%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
4.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-23
4.4%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Jonathan McGill return for 23 yds to the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:297% → 10%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
7.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
10.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2592% → 97%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
8.1%
Braden Lenzy run for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+61
7.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 61 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.0%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the Stanf 1Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.1%
Jack Coan run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:004% → 4%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
4.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
4.3%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
3.7%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+7
3.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 7 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
3.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
2.7%
Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
2.7%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-7
2.6%
Jack Coan sacked by Aaron Armitage for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
2.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the Stanf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:573% → 3%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
3.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
3.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-7
3.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Jayson Ademilola for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
2.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1298% → 98%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
2.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
2.1%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
2.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 12 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.0%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
2.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
1.9%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
2.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
2.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:123% → 2%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
2.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 2 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-7
2.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bryce Farrell for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-5
2.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 9Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+12
2.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds Michael Wilson fumbled, recovered by Stanf Walter RouseSimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
2.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:2798% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+33
1.8%
Chris Tyree run for 33 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
1.7%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
0.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 33 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:180% → 2%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Tanner McKee run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 5 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
0.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 13 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
1.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 49 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
1.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 11 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
1.4%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-4
1.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+12
1.4%
Tyler Buchner run for 12 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:242% → 1%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
1.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-10
1.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+7
1.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 7 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+26
1.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 26 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
1.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+19
1.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 19 yds Michael Wilson fumbled, forced by Clarence Lewis, recovered by NDame Justin AdemilolaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4799% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
0.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 34 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
0.8%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
0.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
0.5%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
0.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gabe Reid) to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.5%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
0.5%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+13
0.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 13 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
0.4%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the Stanf 12Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
0.1%
Kyren Williams run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.1%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
0.1%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:31
Jack Coan run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 13:06
Austin Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q2 4:47
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com