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NAVY

Navy 6 at Notre Dame 34

ND
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5ND 87.8%Jonathan Doerer 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 9:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:47 · Jonathan Doerer 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+32.9Home team on offense+2.0Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:46: Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +4.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:50: Kevin Austin Jr. 70 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:16: Bijan Nichols 21 Yd Field Goal — NAVY win probability +2.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q4 13:20: Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard, Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier Arline for a SAFETY — ND win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:55: Kyren Williams 20 Yd Run (Jack Coan Pass to Braden Lenzy for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:22ND 4th & 5 at ND 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39ND 4th & 6 at ND 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:34NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:44NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:03NAVY 4th & 28 at ND 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:28ND 4th & 4 at NAVY 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:32NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:47ND 4th & 5 at NAVY 6, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:46NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:16NAVY 4th & 4 at ND 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:24ND 4th & 5 at ND 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:14NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:09ND 4th & 5 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:58NAVY 4th & 5 at ND 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 47, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 2:46ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:55ND Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:13ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
93.1%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.1%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
92.9%
Jack Coan run for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 30 yds, downed at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:187% → 8%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
92.7%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+2
92.6%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+55
92.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NOTREDAME 25 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Barnes) to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1392% → 92%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
92.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
92.4%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-2
92.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
92.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FG
17 plays · 36 yds · 7:298% → 10%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
91.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
91.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
91.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
91.2%
Jayden Umbarger run for 32 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
90.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
90.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
90.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
90.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 18
OPP 22
-7
89.9%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 25
OPP 29
-5
90.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Lirion Murtezi) to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 30
OPP 34
+2
90.2%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 28
OPP 32
+49
89.8%
Bijan Nichols 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:2790% → 89%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.7%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
89.5%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
89.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 31 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
89.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
89.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
89.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 7 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 19
-11
88.8%
Jack Coan sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4812% → 12%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.5%
Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
88.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-2
87.6%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai LavataiSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4088% → 88%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
87.3%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jacob BusicSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+14
87.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+38
87.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 38 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-9
88.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 1 yd to the Navy 10 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (Braden Lenzy) to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 19
OPP 20
+1
88.0%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 18
OPP 19
+9
87.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+4
87.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
87.8%
Jonathan Doerer 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5713% → 14%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.8%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
86.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
86.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
86.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 16 yds to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5287% → 91%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
86.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
86.3%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
86.4%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
86.7%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
86.6%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
86.3%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
86.3%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY NAVY offside (Straw, Nicholas) 5 yards to the NAVY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+22
86.3%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Rayuan Lane) to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
86.7%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-1
86.6%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+11
85.8%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.5%
Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:5311% → 10%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.4%
James Harris II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
89.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (Xavier Watts) to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 65 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 0:5588% → 94%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
88.3%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
88.3%
Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 3 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+70
94.2%
Kevin Austin Jr. 70 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:336% → 7%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-1
93.1%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 9:307% → 11%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
92.6%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+18
92.7%
Chance Warren run for 18 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.1%
Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
91.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
91.8%
Arline, Xavier pass incomplete to Warren, Chance, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Griffith, Houston) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
91.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
91.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
91.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
90.9%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
90.9%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 18Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+10
91.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 10 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
90.7%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the NDame 4Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.1%
Bijan Nichols 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4091% → 91%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-6
91.4%
Jack Coan sacked by Michael McMorris for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+9
90.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
90.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:049% → 8%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
91.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
91.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds, downed at the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5992% → 92%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
91.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for no gain to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-1
92.3%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 5
50
0
91.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, downed at the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:449% → 7%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
91.0%
Mike Mauai run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
93.5%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard, Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier Arline for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:1396% → 99%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
95.6%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+14
95.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.8%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
95.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 14 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
95.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jarrett Patterson) to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
95.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 16 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.1%
Kyren Williams 20 Yd Run (Jack Coan Pass to Braden Lenzy for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:461% → 1%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
99.0%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 18 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.0%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
99.1%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
99.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+2
99.2%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Carlinos Acie, broken up by Isaiah PryorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:3599% → 100%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 7
50
+6
99.4%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+12
99.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.5%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-15
99.5%
Williams, Kyren rush for 6 yards to the NAVY20, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Lugg, Josh) 15 yards to the NAVY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+32
99.5%
Logan Diggs run for 23 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Rayuan Lane) to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.5%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Logan Diggs 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
100.0%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+8
100.0%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+6
100.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
Kevin Austin Jr. 70 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
+5.7
TD · Q2 2:46
Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
+4.7
TD · Q4 10:55
Kyren Williams 20 Yd Run (Jack Coan Pass to Braden Lenzy for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com