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USC

USC 16 at Notre Dame 31

ND
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:10 · Jack Coan run for 1 yd to the USC 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+20.0Pregame prior+4.5Score differential+8.4Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:09: Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:13: Kyren Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:51: Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:52: Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +6.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:51: Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) (Parker Lewis PAT MISSED) — USC win probability +11.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:25ND 4th & 4 at USC 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02USC 4th & 7 at USC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:24ND 4th & 3 at USC 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:29USC 4th & 11 at ND 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:32USC 4th & 2 at ND 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:40USC 4th & 10 at ND 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:49ND 4th & 12 at ND 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:08USC 4th & 8 at USC 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:10ND 4th & 1 at USC 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−2.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:45USC 4th & 18 at USC 34, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:09ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:13ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:51ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52USC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:51USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:52ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:2564% → 64%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
64.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
64.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+10
64.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
64.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
64.3%
Braden Lenzy run for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
64.4%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
64.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
64.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
64.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 18 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
64.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
64.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
64.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+36
64.3%
Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1836% → 36%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
63.9%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jayson Ademilola for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 12Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+11
64.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
64.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
64.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:4564% → 69%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
63.9%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
64.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
64.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
64.8%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
64.6%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
64.8%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+15
65.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
65.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+5
65.2%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
65.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4INT
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:1833% → 33%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
66.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
66.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+14
66.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 14 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
66.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 29 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
66.2%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 23 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC Kedon Slovis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 19
OPP 23
+11
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-79
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Bo Bauer return for 79 yds to the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1670% → 71%
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.3%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the USC 4Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
70.5%
Avery Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
70.5%
Jonathan Doerer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:4129% → 29%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
70.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
69.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+9
69.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
70.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
70.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-5
70.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jalen McKenzie) to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+11
70.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
70.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+8
70.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
70.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jalen McKenzie) to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+4
70.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
71.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
71.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
71.0%
Parker Lewis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0572% → 82%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
71.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 29 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
73.6%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
73.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
74.3%
Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
74.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
75.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+16
74.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
75.3%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 5Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.7%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8END OF HALF
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:5620% → 20%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
79.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
79.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
80.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 8 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
79.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
80.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
79.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+10
82.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
80.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
79.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 6 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:0918% → 17%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
82.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+3
81.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
82.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
81.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
81.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
81.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 30 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darwin BarlowSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
80.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
82.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
83.3%
Parker Lewis 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4685% → 85%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
85.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
84.9%
Jack Coan sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
84.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3415% → 15%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
85.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 21 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
83.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
84.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
84.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:1187% → 97%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+13
87.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
88.0%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+38
88.4%
Kyren Williams run for 38 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.4%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+5
89.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY USC pass interference (Alford, Xavion) 5 yards to the USC19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
89.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
90.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+5
91.1%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
90.7%
Jack Coan run for 1 yd to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
91.4%
USC Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the USC 4Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.6%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.4%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:463% → 9%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
96.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 22 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
96.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+18
97.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 18 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
96.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
97.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+13
97.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
97.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
97.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
91.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2294% → 95%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
94.0%
Diggs, Logan rush for 12 yards to the NOTREDAME42, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Takacs, George) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
94.0%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
94.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 17 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
94.8%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
95.0%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+15
95.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 15 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.4%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Chris Steele return for no gain to the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:246% → 18%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+44
93.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 44 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
93.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
93.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
93.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
93.5%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Manjack IV, Joseph, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
92.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
93.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
93.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 1 yd to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) (Parker Lewis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5090% → 98%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.8%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
91.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 6 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
91.9%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
92.3%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY USC pass interference (Steele, Chris) 15 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
92.6%
Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
93.4%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavion Alford) to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
93.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
95.0%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:533% → 2%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
97.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
97.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 13 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
97.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-10
97.3%
Ingram, Keaontay rush for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY USC holding (Neilon, Brett) 10 yards to the USC38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 14
OWN 38
-3
97.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-1
97.7%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 39 USC Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Kedon Slovis) to the USC 34Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+3
97.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 17 yards to the USC 14 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by NDame TaRiq Bracy , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18END OF GAME
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:0398% → 99%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
98.4%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
98.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
98.7%
Tyler Buchner run for 5 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
98.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the USC 8Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:51
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) (Parker Lewis PAT MISSED)
-11.6
TD · Q2 4:13
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q4 14:52
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com