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CIN

Cincinnati 24 at Notre Dame 13

ND
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:13 · Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 17 yds to the Cincy 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior−5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 27 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +14.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:19: Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +12.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:20: Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer PAT MISSED) — ND win probability +29.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:05: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 5 yds to the Cincy 30 — CIN win probability +12.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:08: Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +14.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:30ND 4th & 10 at CIN 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13ND 4th & 6 at ND 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:18CIN 4th & 9 at ND 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:32ND 4th & 17 at ND 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:32CIN 4th & 5 at ND 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:31ND 4th & 9 at ND 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:59CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 14, up 10
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:48ND 4th & 17 at CIN 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:05ND 4th & 5 at ND 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:58CIN 4th & 5 at ND 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:01ND 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:00CIN 4th & 1 at ND 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−4.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:45CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:19ND 4th & 10 at ND 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:28CIN 4th & 4 at ND 19, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−10.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:15ND 4th & 5 at ND 32, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:14ND 4th & 18 at CIN 49, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 12:09CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:40CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:19ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:20ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    33.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:08CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1INT
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:5144% → 46%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
44.1%
Kyren Williams run for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
44.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
44.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
44.8%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+11
44.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
44.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-3
45.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
45.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+20
45.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
45.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.0%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
46.1%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for 4 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0755% → 54%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
45.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+6
45.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 6 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
45.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-5
46.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Kyren Williams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0746% → 46%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
45.8%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
45.8%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
45.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
46.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
46.1%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+7
46.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 7 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
46.8%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+17
46.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 17 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5554% → 54%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
45.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
46.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
45.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+17
46.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 17 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
45.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
45.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
46.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2847% → 47%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
47.4%
Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+9
47.3%
Tyler Buchner run for 9 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
47.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
46.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 12
OWN 18
-5
46.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
46.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1654% → 52%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.9%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
46.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
46.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
47.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1248% → 47%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
48.0%
Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
48.0%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-27
47.4%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 27 yds to the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:0256% → 62%
Q2 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.5%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
44.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2062% → 63%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
38.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
37.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
37.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
37.9%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
37.5%
Cole Smith 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:4937% → 35%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
37.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
37.0%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
37.5%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+10
36.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
36.9%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
36.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+9
34.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-5
35.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
34.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1765% → 64%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
35.2%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+7
35.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 7 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
35.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+49
36.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NOTREDAME 47 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4235% → 33%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
34.6%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
34.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+23
33.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 23 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.9%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
35.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-7
35.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Darrian Beavers and Curtis Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
32.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:5968% → 84%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
32.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+27
32.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 27 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
30.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 22 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
16.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 27 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2323% → 22%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
22.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
22.8%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
22.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, downed at the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
18.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:5579% → 81%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
20.3%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+45
19.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 45 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
18.2%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
18.1%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
17.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
18.8%
Cole Smith 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2920% → 19%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
19.8%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
19.8%
Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
18.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
20.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 17 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
20.6%
Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
20.1%
Drew Pyne run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
20.2%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
19.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:2085% → 90%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
14.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
14.1%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
12.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
12.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
12.0%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
12.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
10.6%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+19
10.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 19 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+28
9.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 38 Desmond Ridder fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew White , return for 0 yards , return for 28 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:4116% → 30%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
16.4%
Avery Davis run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+16
17.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
17.0%
Drew Pyne run for 11 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.8%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2577% → 75%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.3%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
22.7%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
24.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
24.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 24 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2124% → 21%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
23.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
23.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
22.1%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
21.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5178% → 81%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
22.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+44
23.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
19.6%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
17.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 5 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
17.2%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
19.2%
Cole Smith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5519% → 48%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
18.7%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
17.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 14 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.8%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.5%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+20
16.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
18.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+32
48.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5770% → 93%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
29.1%
Jerome Ford run for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
25.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
26.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+36
24.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 36 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
21.5%
Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
7.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 24 yds · 2:4510% → 5%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
9.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
9.6%
Drew Pyne run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
8.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+8
8.4%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+10
6.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
7.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
7.2%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+12
7.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
8.0%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-8
7.8%
Drew Pyne sacked by Jabari Taylor and Malik Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 18
OPP 49
0
6.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
5.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4997% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
3.5%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
3.2%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:20
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer PAT MISSED)
+29.3
TD · Q2 0:40
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 27 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q4 5:08
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com