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Notre Dame 41 at Wisconsin 13

WIS
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Soldier Field
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:19 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense−7.6Pregame prior+9.7Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:48: Kevin Austin Jr. 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +10.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:53: Kendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +16.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:14: Collin Larsh 27 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:01: Chris Tyree 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +30.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: Kevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +18.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:42ND 4th & 15 at ND 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48WIS 4th & 6 at ND 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:09WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:12ND 4th & 7 at ND 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:13WIS 4th & 1 at ND 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:39ND 4th & 1 at WIS 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44ND 4th & 14 at WIS 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:46WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:08ND 4th & 14 at ND 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:56WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:54ND 4th & 11 at ND 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07ND 4th & 14 at ND 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:59WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:36ND 4th & 9 at WIS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:06WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:14WIS 4th & 9 at ND 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−15.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:28WIS 4th & 10 at ND 34, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:20ND 4th & 10 at ND 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:20ND 4th & 6 at WIS 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 4:48ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:53WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:01ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:34ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:13ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:01ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0531% → 31%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
69.1%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-7
69.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Matt Henningsen for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
69.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kyren Williams, broken up by Scott NelsonSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 15
OWN 17
+5
69.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4269% → 69%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
69.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 22 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
69.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
69.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
69.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
69.1%
Collin Larsh 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3MISSED FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:2831% → 31%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
69.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Isaiah Mullens and Keeanu Benton for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+20
69.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 20 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
68.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
68.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
68.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 18 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
68.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 16 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
68.3%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-1
68.2%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+6
68.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
68.1%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 13 Kyren Williams fumbled, forced by Faion Hicks, recovered by NDame Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
68.0%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-9
68.3%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+39
68.9%
Jonathan Doerer 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5169% → 68%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
68.8%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
68.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
68.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+6
68.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 47 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5332% → 31%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
68.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+3
68.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+6
69.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds , Dean Engram returns for 6 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:5069% → 69%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
68.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 4 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+43
68.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Clay Cundiff for 43 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
70.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
70.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
69.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 2 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
69.2%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FG
17 plays · 45 yds · 6:2431% → 34%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.6%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
68.7%
Jack Coan run for 8 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
68.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
68.2%
Jack Coan run for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
67.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
67.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
67.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
69.0%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
67.9%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
68.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
68.0%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
66.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-4
68.0%
Jack Coan sacked by C.J. Goetz for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+51
65.8%
Jonathan Doerer 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2567% → 67%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
67.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for no gain to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
66.3%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Pryor, Kendric, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Hamilton, Kyle) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor, broken up by Jack KiserSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
67.2%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Cam Hart return for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:1538% → 50%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
62.2%
Coan, Jack pass pass intended for Tyree, Chris intercepted by Chenal, Leo at the WISCONSIN45, Chenal, Leo return 16 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Burks, Noah) 3 yards to the WISCONSIN48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
61.2%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
61.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
60.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-5
60.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
49.6%
Kevin Austin Jr. 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4955% → 53%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
55.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
56.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
53.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+4
53.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 4 yds to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3048% → 49%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
51.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
51.7%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-3
50.6%
Jack Coan sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
51.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 72 yds, downed at the Wisc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:4952% → 49%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
51.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Howard Cross III) to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 5
OWN 14
-1
51.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+4
50.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
48.9%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 17 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
48.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
49.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0449% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jake Ferguson) to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
49.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
50.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
49.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
48.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
46.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5654% → 53%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
46.2%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
46.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+5
47.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5049% → 68%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
49.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 35 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
52.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Joe Tippmann) to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+15
51.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 15 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
51.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
67.6%
Kendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3540% → 37%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.1%
Jack Coan sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
60.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
61.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 15Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+6
61.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
62.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, downed at the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0363% → 62%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
62.5%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete, broken up by Bo BauerSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
62.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 46 yds, downed at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:1741% → 42%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
59.3%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+15
58.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Avery Davis for 15 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
57.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Avery Davis for 17 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
54.7%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
53.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
54.5%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr., broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
56.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2461% → 58%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
60.9%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
60.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+6
58.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 6 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+10
58.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 10 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -13 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-13
53.3%
Drew Pyne sacked by Rodas Johnson for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 39 Drew Pyne fumbled, forced by Rodas Johnson, recovered by Wisc Jack Sanborn , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3866% → 73%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
65.7%
Mellusi, Chez rush for 2 yards to the NOTREDAME37, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Ademilola, Jayson) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
67.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
65.3%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
66.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+9
66.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 9 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
66.9%
Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
67.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
72.5%
Collin Larsh 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3549% → 44%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
49.1%
Berger, Jalen rush for no gain to the WISCONSIN47, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Tippmann, Joe) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+1
44.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+8
44.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
43.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jayson Ademilola for 0 yards to the Wisc 46 Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by Jayson Ademilola, recovered by NDame Isaiah Foskey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4065% → 87%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
34.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Joe Alt) to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+6
36.6%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
34.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
34.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 7 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
31.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
31.0%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 16Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+16
13.0%
Kevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:5717% → 16%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
16.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chez MellusiSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
16.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 10 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
18.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 19 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
20.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
20.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
15.7%
Collin Larsh 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0189% → 91%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
11.2%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-5
10.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Michael Mayer) to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
10.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-3
9.3%
Drew Pyne run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+37
9.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the WISCONSIN 14 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28INT
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:1910% → 11%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
10.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 17 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-32
11.4%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Cam Hart return for 32 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3393% → 99%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.4%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
7.2%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
1.8%
Jonathan Doerer 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
1.5%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 30INT TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:483% → 1%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
3.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
3.0%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Dunn, Jack, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Hamilton, Kyle) 13 yards to the WISCONSIN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
3.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 19 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-66
1.0%
Jack Kiser 66 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 31INT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:591% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
0.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
0.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-45
0.0%
Drew White 45 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
0.0%
John Chenal run for 7 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:01
Chris Tyree 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-30.5
TD · Q4 9:34
Kevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-18
TD · Q3 9:53
Kendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com