Try the model
PUR

Purdue 13 at Notre Dame 27

ND
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playND scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:51 · Brendan Cropsey punt for 56 yds, downed at the NDame 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+5.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 11:06: Mitchell Fineran 34 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +3.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 9:59: Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 62 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +8.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:08: Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +15.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 10:50: Jonathan Doerer 30 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +8.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:05: Kyren Williams run for 51 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +12.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 11PUR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:39ND 4th & 18 at ND 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58PUR 4th & 6 at ND 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42ND 4th & 19 at ND 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:18PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:04ND 4th & 8 at ND 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:05PUR 4th & 1 at ND 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:51ND 4th & 3 at PUR 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:58PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:45ND 4th & 3 at PUR 10, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:02PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:46ND 4th & 8 at PUR 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:51PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:51ND 4th & 10 at ND 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:06PUR 4th & 7 at ND 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:58ND 4th & 10 at ND 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:10PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:50ND 4th & 11 at PUR 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−15.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:45PUR 4th & 23 at PUR 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:05ND 4th & 9 at PUR 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:16PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:09PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:06ND 4th & 1 at ND 29, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:51ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:59ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:08PUR Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:05ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:1569% → 69%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
68.9%
Jack Coan sacked by Jaylan Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-5
68.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Lorenzo Styles Jr.) to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+6
68.8%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
68.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+10
68.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 10 yds to the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:3731% → 32%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
68.5%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
68.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 9 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
68.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
68.1%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+11
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 11 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
67.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
67.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+4
67.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 4 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
67.8%
Mitchell Fineran 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1168% → 67%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
67.8%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jalen Graham) to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
68.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 6 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-15
68.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 19
OWN 37
0
67.1%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
66.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the Prdue 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 4:2033% → 34%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.4%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
67.2%
Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
67.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 6 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
66.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-2
66.2%
Dylan Downing run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 41 Dylan Downing fumbled, recovered by Prdue Dylan DowningSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
66.4%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Jack Ansell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1166% → 65%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
65.8%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-2
65.7%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
65.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+4
64.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 35 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 4 yds to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5335% → 35%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.9%
King Doerue run for no gain to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
64.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 7 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
64.1%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
64.9%
Milton Wright run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0766% → 69%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
65.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 20 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
66.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 5 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
66.8%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-1
66.5%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 39Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+39
69.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 39 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4831% → 30%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.4%
Dylan Downing run for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
68.6%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
68.9%
Dylan Downing run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 26 yds, downed at the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:0970% → 73%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
69.8%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
70.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 2
50
+3
69.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
70.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
70.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+10
69.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Graham, Jalen) 10 yards to the PURDUE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
71.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Brown, Jamari) 15 yards to the PURDUE17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
71.1%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
71.2%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Prdue 10Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
69.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
72.9%
Jonathan Doerer 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3127% → 25%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
72.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 3 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-7
73.5%
Milton Wright sacked by Nana Osafo-Mensah for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
74.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to King DoerueSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
75.0%
Jack Ansell punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0975% → 76%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
75.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
75.6%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
75.7%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
75.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-5
75.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
76.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
75.5%
Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5025% → 24%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
75.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 9 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Dylan Downing run for no gain to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-3
74.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Dylan Downing for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
76.3%
Brendan Cropsey punt for 56 yds, downed at the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:5775% → 74%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
75.4%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
75.2%
Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 11
OWN 10
-5
74.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Tosh Baker) to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 16
OWN 5
+20
74.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 20 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
75.2%
Jack Coan sacked by George Karlaftis and Jack Sullivan for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+17
74.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 17 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
75.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
75.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 3 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:4624% → 25%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
76.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
75.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
75.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
75.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 8 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+6
73.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 6 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
75.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayson Ademilola) to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:4427% → 33%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
73.5%
King Doerue run for 6 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
72.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 8 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
72.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 22 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
70.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Broc Thompson for 11 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
69.9%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Payne Durham) to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+7
71.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Broc Thompson for 7 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
70.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 1 yd to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
70.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
66.7%
Mitchell Fineran 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0271% → 81%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Mackey, Dedrick) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.6%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
73.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for no gain to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+62
81.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 62 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4519% → 37%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+31
79.7%
King Doerue run for 31 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
78.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 32 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.1%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.2%
King Doerue run for no gain to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.8%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Bell, David, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Lewis, Clarence) 1 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0672% → 70%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
71.9%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
74.1%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
73.2%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
71.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+2
69.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 2 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:4430% → 28%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
70.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+7
70.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
69.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
69.6%
Jack Plummer run for 11 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
68.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
69.9%
King Doerue run for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to King DoerueSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+7
72.0%
Brendan Cropsey punt for 40 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 7 yds to the NDame 42 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Colin Gutzmer) to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:2073% → 85%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
72.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Tosh Baker) to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
72.4%
Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
72.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.8%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+19
75.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 19 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
76.7%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
76.8%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+15
75.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 15 yds to the Prdue 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
77.0%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-4
77.1%
Jack Coan sacked by DaMarcus Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
76.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
85.4%
Jonathan Doerer 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:5619% → 16%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
81.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
81.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-13
82.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Foskey and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for a loss of 13 yards to the Prdue 8Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
83.6%
Brendan Cropsey punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3388% → 86%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
88.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
87.8%
Jack Coan sacked by Lawrence Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+8
86.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 8 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
86.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, downed at the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:4617% → 14%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
83.0%
King Doerue run for no gain to the Prdue 1Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+27
85.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 27 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
83.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 5 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
84.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+23
85.7%
Jack Ansell punt for 41 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 23 yds to the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
98.0%
Kyren Williams run for 51 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25INT
15 plays · 64 yds · 3:306% → 6%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
94.4%
Aidan O'Connell run for 8 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
93.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 13 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.2%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Eric Miller) to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+16
95.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
94.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 4 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
93.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 8 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+12
93.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 12 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
93.9%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
94.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted, touchback. Kyle Hamilton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.7%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
98.9%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+15
99.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 15 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
97.2%
O'Connell, Aidan pass complete to Anthrop, Jackson for 9 yards to the PURDUE48, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Craig, Cam) 10 yards to the PURDUE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+7
97.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+6
97.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 6 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted DJ Brown return for no gain to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:08
Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q4 6:05
Kyren Williams run for 51 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+12.3
FG · Q4 10:50
Jonathan Doerer 30 yd FG GOOD
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com