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TOL

Toledo 29 at Notre Dame 32

ND
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:29 · Jay Bramblett punt for 58 yds, downed at the Toled 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:46: Chris McDonald 27 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +10.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: One-score game).
  2. TD · Q4 10:57: Chris Tyree 55 Yd pass from Tyler Buchner (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +19.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:48: Bryant Koback 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TOL win probability +20.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 1:35: Dequan Finn 26 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +50.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:09: Michael Mayer 18 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Avery Davis Pass to Kyren Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +59.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:06TOL 4th & 12 at ND 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:14TOL 4th & 5 at ND 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:32ND 4th & 16 at ND 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:26TOL 4th & 27 at TOL 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07ND 4th & 10 at ND 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34TOL 4th & 15 at ND 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:04ND 4th & 1 at ND 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:04TOL 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:03TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, up 2
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:29ND 4th & 27 at ND 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−6.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:06TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:03ND 4th & 10 at TOL 37, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:36TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−3.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:25ND 4th & 10 at TOL 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−4.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:06TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:45ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46TOL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:57ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:48TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:35TOL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:09ND Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0586% → 86%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
86.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 14 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
86.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 28 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
86.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
86.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 8 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
86.0%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.2%
Michael Mayer 4 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:2814% → 15%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
86.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
86.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+66
86.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 66 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
85.5%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
85.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
85.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
85.2%
Thomas Cluckey 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5885% → 85%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.1%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
85.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
84.9%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.8%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+18
84.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 18 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
85.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
85.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Quinyon Mitchell for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 44 Jack Coan fumbled, forced by Quinyon Mitchell, recovered by Toled Quinyon Mitchell , return for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:4316% → 17%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
84.5%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
84.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 23 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.1%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
83.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+1
84.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
83.2%
Thomas Cluckey 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3784% → 83%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
83.7%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
83.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
82.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:0218% → 17%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
82.5%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Mitchell, Bryce, PENALTY TOLEDO face mask (Dumont, Lavel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 25
OWN 25
-2
83.0%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 27
OWN 23
0
83.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 27
OWN 23
0
83.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 68 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1583% → 82%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
82.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
82.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
82.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
82.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:2618% → 19%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
81.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+4
82.1%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+13
82.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
80.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.4%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
80.1%
Carter Bradley sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+5
81.1%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 yds, downed at the NDame 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
5 plays · 96 yds · 2:0781% → 86%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+26
81.3%
Tyler Buchner run for 26 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 11 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
81.9%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
81.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
85.8%
Kyren Williams 43 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0015% → 15%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
84.3%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-2
84.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0185% → 86%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.1%
Jack Coan run for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
84.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
85.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
85.2%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:5716% → 19%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
84.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
84.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+7
84.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 7 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
83.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+10
83.8%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
82.9%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
82.3%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete to Mitchell, Bryce, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Lewis, Clarence) 7 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
82.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
81.1%
Thomas Cluckey 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1282% → 72%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
82.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-27
72.3%
Chris McDonald 27 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:4072% → 71%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.4%
Jack Coan sacked by Jonathan Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
71.8%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mitchell, Quinyon) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.3%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
69.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
69.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
70.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5130% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
69.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds, downed at the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:3070% → 65%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
69.9%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+14
69.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 14 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+13
68.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 13 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
71.4%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
69.1%
Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 17
OWN 33
-10
66.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 27
OWN 23
0
65.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 58 yds, downed at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1934% → 32%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
66.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-9
64.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by JD Bertrand for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
67.0%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
67.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5770% → 64%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
69.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
70.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+11
68.8%
Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
69.5%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
68.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+55
64.3%
Jonathan Doerer 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2239% → 38%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
61.0%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
59.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 8
50
-5
57.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+1
59.5%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
59.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
61.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 6:0562% → 70%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
62.1%
Chris Tyree run for 10 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
60.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 10 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
62.4%
Jack Coan sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+16
58.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 16 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
65.5%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
65.4%
Tyler Buchner run for 15 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
66.7%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
66.3%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-3
63.8%
Jack Coan sacked by Jamal Hines and Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
69.5%
Jonathan Doerer 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:1532% → 29%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
69.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
70.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+1
70.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
90.8%
Chris Tyree 55 Yd pass from Tyler Buchner (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:0313% → 36%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+67
87.5%
Bryant Koback run for 67 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 5 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+10
84.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
84.1%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.6%
Bryant Koback 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1671% → 81%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.1%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
72.7%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
70.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
75.7%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+8
74.0%
Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
75.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
78.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
79.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
81.4%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Toled 27 Kyren Williams fumbled, forced by Desjuan Johnson, recovered by Toled Zachary FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:4631% → 93%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
68.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 15 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
66.0%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete to Winstead, Isaiah, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Hart, Cam) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
62.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 12
50
0
65.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 12
50
+15
67.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 15 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
59.3%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
55.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
7.5%
Dequan Finn 26 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:2021% → 92%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
20.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 34 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
27.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+10
32.7%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
32.6%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Johnson, Dyontae) 7 yards to the TOLEDO18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.3%
Michael Mayer 18 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Avery Davis Pass to Kyren Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27FUMBLE
10 plays · 0 yds · 0:4423% → 17%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
77.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
77.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 15
OWN 8
0
78.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+13
79.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 13 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-5
79.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+9
81.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 9 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, Carter Bradley fumbled, forced by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, recovered by NDame JD Bertrand at the TOL 29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:09
Michael Mayer 18 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Avery Davis Pass to Kyren Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+59.7
TD · Q4 1:35
Dequan Finn 26 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)
-50.2
TD · Q4 7:48
Bryant Koback 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com