Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 31 at Syracuse 14

SYR
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · JMA Wireless Dome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:20 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the Syrac 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior−25.3Home team on offense+3.1Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:35: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +6.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:06: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 25 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +5.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:32: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +7.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:45: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +8.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:03: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +8.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SYR 4th & 3 at PITT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44PITT 4th & 3 at SYR 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45SYR 4th & 18 at SYR 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:05SYR 4th & 20 at SYR 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:54SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:44SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:44PITT 4th & 29 at PITT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:55SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:01PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:39SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 1 at SYR 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−3.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:17SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:20PITT 4th & 7 at SYR 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:24SYR 4th & 6 at PITT 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:35SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:25PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:06PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:32PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:45PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:03SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SYRDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2518% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.4%
Sean Tucker run for 5 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
18.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 10 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
18.4%
Sean Tucker run for 4 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
18.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
18.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
18.4%
Sean Tucker run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+17
18.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 17 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
18.4%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
18.4%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+9
18.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 9 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+8
18.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
18.4%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+3
18.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 3 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
24.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4276% → 75%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
50
+7
23.7%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+7
24.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
50
+7
24.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
25.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5926% → 27%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
26.4%
Sean Tucker run for 10 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
26.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
26.5%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-8
26.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 45Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
27.1%
Ian Hawkins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0373% → 71%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
27.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
27.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the Syrac 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3729% → 30%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
28.8%
Sean Tucker run for 7 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+15
29.3%
PENALTY PIT Pass Interference 15 yards from SYR36 to PIT49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
29.6%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
29.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-12
29.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by John Petrishen for a loss of 12 yards to the Syrac 41Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
30.1%
Ian Hawkins punt for 44 yds , Jordan Addison returns for no gain to the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4069% → 67%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
30.8%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
30.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 1 yd to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
31.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 22
-5
31.5%
PENALTY PIT False Start 5 yards from PIT22 to PIT17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
33.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2633% → 34%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
33.3%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
32.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Luke Benson for 5 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
33.5%
Ian Hawkins punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2966% → 74%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
32.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
32.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+18
32.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 18 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
32.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Syrac 39Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
32.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
31.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 7 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
31.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
31.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
26.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4731% → 32%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
32.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 15 yds Devaughn Cooper fumbled, forced by Erick Hallett, recovered by Pitt SirVocea DennisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3273% → 79%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
27.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
27.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
27.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Syrac 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
26.9%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
26.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
20.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 25 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 1:1723% → 23%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
22.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
23.0%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-8
22.2%
PENALTY SYR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 8 yards from SYR17 to SYR09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+2
22.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the Syrac 11Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 14
OWN 11
-5
21.9%
PENALTY SYR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 5 yards from SYR11 to SYR06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 19
OWN 6
0
22.7%
Ian Hawkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Syrac 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 1:0078% → 77%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
21.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Syrac 49Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-11
21.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 22
OWN 40
-15
23.3%
PENALTY PIT Personal Foul 15 yards from PIT40 to PIT25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 37
OWN 25
+8
24.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 29
OWN 33
+6
23.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 6 yds to the Syrac 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4923% → 22%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
22.7%
Sean Tucker run for no gain to the Syrac 16Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
22.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
21.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 9 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-5
22.1%
PENALTY SYR Delay Of Game 5 yards from SYR25 to SYR20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
21.8%
Ian Hawkins punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:5479% → 77%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
21.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 7 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
20.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
20.7%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
50
-5
19.9%
PENALTY PIT False Start 5 yards from PIT50 to PIT45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
21.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
21.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
22.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
22.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the Syrac 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
23.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2879% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
21.5%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
20.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 7 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
20.6%
Vincent Davis run for 22 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
20.1%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
20.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
20.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for no gain Lucas Krull fumbled, forced by Jason Simmons, recovered by PittSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
20.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
20.4%
PENALTY SYR Face Mask 7 yards from SYR14 to SYR07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
20.0%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Syrac 4Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4715% → 14%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.9%
Sean Tucker run for 1 yd to the Syrac 24Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
14.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 9 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
15.2%
PENALTY SYR False Start 5 yards from SYR33 to SYR28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
14.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Damien AlfordSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
13.6%
Ian Hawkins punt for 50 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 5 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:5488% → 97%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
12.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 3 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+1
12.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+25
13.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
50
+10
11.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 10 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
11.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+20
11.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
11.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Syrac 5Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
3.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:365% → 14%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
4.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to for 19 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
4.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 4 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
4.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
4.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 14 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
5.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 30 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
5.6%
Garrett Shrader sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
13.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:4790% → 94%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
10.0%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
10.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 4 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
9.2%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
8.5%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
8.8%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
8.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
8.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 3 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+6
9.7%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.2%
Kenny Pickett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5910% → 8%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
10.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the Syrac 7Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
10.1%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Devaughn CooperSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 8
OWN 7
0
9.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 8
OWN 7
-3
9.8%
PENALTY SYR Illegal Substitution 3 yards from SYR07 to SYR04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+28
7.8%
Ian Hawkins punt for 48 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 28 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5794% → 97%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
5.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+7
5.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Syrac 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Syrac 11Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
5.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+1
5.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Syrac 8Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
3.0%
Sam Scarton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:564% → 3%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
3.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
4.1%
Sean Tucker run for 3 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
4.0%
Shrader,Garrett pass incomplete to Alford,Damien PENALTY PIT Pass Interference 15 yards from SYR23 to SYR38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
4.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 30 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
5.3%
Sean Tucker run for 6 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-6
5.4%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-10
3.0%
Shrader,Garrett rush for 0 yards to the PIT32, out of bounds PENALTY SYR Holding 10 yards from PIT32 to PIT42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+14
2.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 14 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 6
OPP 28
-10
2.9%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 38 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by Syrac Garrett Shrader , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -2 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.6%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.6%
Daniel Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+4
1.2%
Daniel Carter run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:45
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 2:03
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 10:32
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com