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MIA

Miami 47 at Duke 10

DUKE
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:39 · Porter Wilson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior−19.0Home team on offense−46.1Score differential−31.9Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:20: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:30: Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +3.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:04: Andres Borregales 29 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Andres Borregales 25 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 9:43: Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:47DUKE 4th & 9 at MIA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37MIA 4th & 5 at DUKE 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:46DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:52DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:34DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42DUKE 4th & 2 at MIA 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30MIA 4th & 5 at DUKE 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04MIA 4th & 3 at DUKE 12, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:00DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:44MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 6 at DUKE 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:48MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:43MIA 4th & 8 at DUKE 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:37DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:39DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 46, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:04DUKE 4th & 10 at MIA 47, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:36MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 25, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:36DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 32, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:05MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:20MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:30MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:15MIA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:16MIA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FG
14 plays · 37 yds · 4:068% → 10%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
7.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
7.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
7.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
7.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-10
7.8%
Durant,Mataeo rush for 10 yards gain to the UM34 (Clarke,Marcus; Flagg, Jr.,Corey), out of bounds PENALTY DU Holding (Gelotte,John) 10 yards from UM44 to DU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+10
7.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 10 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+11
7.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
7.8%
Holmberg,Gunnar pass complete to Bobo,Jake for 3 yards to the UM30 (Miller,Jordan; Williams,Chantz) PENALTY UM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UM33 to UM28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+5
9.1%
Calhoun,Jalon pass intercepted by Ivey,DJ at UM14 Ivey,DJ return 21 yards to the UM35 (Wohlabaugh,Jack) PENALTY UM Offside (Flagg, Jr.,Corey) 5 yards from UM28 to UM23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to J'Marick WoodsSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
9.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+1
9.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 1 yd to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
9.5%
Charlie Ham 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:0391% → 90%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
9.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+44
9.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 44 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
9.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
9.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 1 yd to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
9.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
10.1%
Andres Borregales 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2089% → 89%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
11.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 13 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
11.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
11.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
11.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
11.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
11.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
11.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
10.9%
DUKE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
11.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1912% → 13%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
11.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
12.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
11.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
12.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
12.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
12.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
13.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2687% → 89%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
12.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+20
12.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Michael Reese) to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
12.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+8
12.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
12.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Romello Brinson for 13 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
12.1%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 11 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
13.2%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
13.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
10.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
11.8%
Leonard,Riley rush for 1 yard loss to the DU33 (Smith,Chase) PENALTY UM Offside (Johnson,Deandre) 5 yards from DU34 to DU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 5
OWN 39
-15
12.3%
Riley Leonard sacked by Keontra Smith for a loss of 15 yards to the Duke 24 Riley Leonard fumbled, recovered by Duke Jack Wohlabaugh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+9
11.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 9 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
11.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 11
OWN 33
-5
11.3%
PENALTY DU False Start (Hagans,Sahmir) 5 yards from DU33 to DU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
11.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 yds , Jacolby George returns for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4288% → 87%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
12.1%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
12.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
12.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Thaddius Franklin Jr.Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
12.8%
Nelson Foley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3613% → 13%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.9%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
12.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
12.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
12.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0487% → 91%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
12.7%
Smith,Brashard rush for 9 yards gain to the UM29 (Stevens,Sayyid) PENALTY UM Holding (Franklin, Jr.,Thad) 10 yards from UM20 to UM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+39
12.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 39 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
11.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 36 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
11.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
11.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+12
11.9%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Harley,Mike QB hurried by Heyward,Shaka, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DU Pass Interference (Alexander,Jalen) 12 yards from DU14 to DU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:4810% → 10%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
9.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+14
9.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 14 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
10.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
10.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+1
10.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:3891% → 92%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
9.1%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo,Charleston PENALTY DU Pass Interference (Johnson,Da'Quan) 15 yards from UM47 to DU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
9.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.2%
Cody Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
9.2%
Cody Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+14
9.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 14 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
9.0%
Cody Brown run for 7 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
9.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
9.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
7.6%
Andres Borregales 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:549% → 9%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
8.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
8.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
8.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
8.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:0093% → 96%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
7.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
7.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
7.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
7.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 18 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
6.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+17
6.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 17 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
6.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
5.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
5.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+8
6.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
5.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 9 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
5.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-5
6.3%
PENALTY UM False Start (Clark,Jakai) 5 yards from DU03 to DU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
6.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
4.2%
Andres Borregales 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:1795% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
5.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 26 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
4.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
4.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
4.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 3 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
4.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
4.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
4.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
5.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
4.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 4 yds to the Duke 32 Tyler Van Dyke fumbled, forced by Da'Quan Johnson, recovered by MiaFl Tyler Van DykeSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+6
4.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
4.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
3.1%
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:064% → 4%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
3.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
3.5%
DeWayne Carter run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2298% → 99%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
2.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+8
2.3%
Cody Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
2.3%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 1 yd to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
1.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:361% → 1%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
0.9%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by DJ Ivey for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
0.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
0.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
0.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
0.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
0.9%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+1
0.6%
Porter Wilson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
1.1%
PENALTY UM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting DU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
1.1%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
0.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
1.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
1.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
1.0%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo,Charleston PENALTY DU Offside (Peebles,Aeneas) 5 yards from DU26 to DU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
1.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+6
1.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
1.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
0.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
0.2%
PENALTY DU False Start (Addo,Peace) 5 yards from UM45 to UM50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
50
+3
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
0.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+4
0.5%
Cody Brown run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+9
0.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
0.4%
Cody Brown run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.4%
Ryan Rizk run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+1
0.4%
Cody Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Ryan Rizk pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Matias Gasc punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sahmir Hagans at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:480% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for no gain to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Leonard Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nate Kyei-Donkor for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+14
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 14 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.1%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+9
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 9 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nate Kyei-Donkor for 4 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+14
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 14 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.1%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.1%
Ryan Rizk pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Cashwell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Isaiah Cashwell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Isaiah Cashwell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Cashwell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.1%
Isaiah Cashwell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:30
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 14:20
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-2.4
FG · Q2 0:00
Andres Borregales 25 yd FG GOOD
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com