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UVA

Virginia 38 at Pittsburgh 48

PITT
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.6PITT 83.9%Kenny Pickett pass complete to JordanAddison for 34 yds for a TD, (SamScarton KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 31 · Q3 8:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:32 · Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 34 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense+10.6Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+2.1Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:39: Brendan Farrell kickoff for 63 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for 98 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +11.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 34 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +10.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +17.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:43: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +10.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:18: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 39 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +25.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:03PITT 4th & 10 at UVA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:19UVA 4th & 2 at PITT 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:55UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:14UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:49PITT 4th & 12 at UVA 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:53UVA 4th & 10 at PITT 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:01PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:25UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:32PITT 4th & 1 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−3.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46PITT 4th & 5 at UVA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:17UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−6.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:47UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19UVA 4th & 2 at PITT 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:28UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:52UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:52UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:32PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:06UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:43PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:18UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:10PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:2219% → 21%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
81.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
81.2%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH personal foul 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
81.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
80.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
80.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
80.5%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-5
80.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+23
80.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 23 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:1579% → 78%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
79.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+14
79.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 14 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
79.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-5
78.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Michael Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
77.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:3622% → 26%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 13 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
77.3%
Devin Darrington run for 7 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+10
77.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Devin Darrington for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
76.1%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
75.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
75.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-1
74.2%
Devin Darrington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
74.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
74.4%
Jacob Finn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:1675% → 79%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
74.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+23
74.6%
Vincent Davis run for 23 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.5%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
74.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
74.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
75.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
75.2%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
75.0%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
74.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 5 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5023% → 23%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 11 yds Dontayvion Wicks fumbled, recovered by Virg Jacob Rodriguez for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
76.2%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-10
75.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+40
76.7%
Jacob Finn punt for 40 yds , Jordan Addison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1577% → 82%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
76.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 15 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
77.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
78.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 17 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
78.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+7
81.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0919% → 30%
Q2 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+18
81.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 18 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
80.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 19 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
80.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+16
79.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
78.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
78.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
78.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 22 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.8%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0819% → 18%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
80.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by John Morgan III for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+39
82.2%
Jacob Finn punt for 52 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 39 yds to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1783% → 84%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
82.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+15
82.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 15 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
83.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
83.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Joey Blount for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 20
OPP 26
+8
81.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
83.7%
Sam Scarton 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:5116% → 28%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
83.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
82.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 3 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
82.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 21 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
81.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 10 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 5 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+9
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 7 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2875% → 77%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
75.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
76.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
77.3%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Anthony Johnson return for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0524% → 24%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.4%
Mike Hollins run for 13 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
77.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 9 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
75.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted, touchback. Phil Campbell III return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3175% → 75%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-33
75.2%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Joey Blount return for 33 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0530% → 33%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
70.4%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
70.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-5
71.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
67.3%
Brendan Farrell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4572% → 69%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:3632% → 30%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
68.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 15
OWN 18
-9
68.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 24
OWN 9
0
68.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 24
OWN 9
-1
69.6%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Calijah Kancey and John Morgan III for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 25
OWN 8
0
70.3%
Jacob Finn punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3473% → 84%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
72.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
73.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
73.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
73.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+34
83.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 34 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1219% → 41%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
80.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 32 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
78.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
78.3%
Devin Darrington run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
77.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 19 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
76.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+5
77.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
76.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 5 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
59.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:5868% → 75%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.0%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
70.2%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
69.6%
Vincent Davis run for 20 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
73.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+21
70.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 21 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
72.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
72.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
74.7%
Sam Scarton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1727% → 26%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
73.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
74.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+46
74.4%
Jacob Finn punt for 36 yds, downed at the PITTSBURGH 32 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
19 plays · 78 yds · 5:2473% → 90%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
72.8%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+13
72.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
78.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
50
+7
78.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
79.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
79.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
80.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
77.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+14
75.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
79.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
79.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
78.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
79.8%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Wayne, Jared, PENALTY PITTSBURGH ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the VIRGINIA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+5
76.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.9%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
79.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 9 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:049% → 34%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
91.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 36 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 39 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2175% → 74%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.2%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
76.9%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
77.7%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
78.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-11
77.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
73.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds, downed at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3329% → 26%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
71.3%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+22
72.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 22 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 3 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-7
66.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Virg Devin Darrington Devin Darrington run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 21
OWN 32
+8
73.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 8 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:0781% → 96%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
80.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+3
85.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
85.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
88.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+62
96.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 62 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:413% → 4%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+40
96.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 40 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
96.1%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Henry, Ra'Shaun, PENALTY PITTSBURGH personal foul 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
95.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 10 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
94.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
95.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 14
0
95.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3297% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:18
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 39 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)
-25.2
TD · Q3 5:06
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q2 6:39
Brendan Farrell kickoff for 63 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for 98 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com