2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:41 · Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:15: Will Shipley pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:22: Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:50: Kobe Pace run for 8 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:36: D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 58 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:50: Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Turner Run For Two-point Conversion) — WAKE win probability +6.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 14:16WAKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q1 12:39CLEM 4th & 7 at WAKE 33, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snapGo for it60.9%37% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%−<0.149% to makePunt60.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:47WAKE 4th & 19 at WAKE 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%average punt
- Q1 6:41CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 1, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.6%59% to convertField goal60.9%−0.794% to makePunt59.1%−2.5average punt
- Q1 5:20WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q1 1:38WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.1%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 14:49CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it65.8%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q2 10:21WAKE 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.6%33% to convertField goalTheir call31.6%−<0.192% to makePunt26.6%−5.0average punt
- Q3 8:08WAKE 4th & 11 at CLEM 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snapGo for it14.6%−1.223% to convertField goalTheir call15.9%85% to makePunt9.6%−6.2average punt
- Q3 0:00WAKE 4th & 4 at CLEM 18, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%47% to convertField goal1.3%−<0.179% to makePunt0.0%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:14CLEM 4th & 2 at WAKE 18, up 19Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%56% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%−0.379% to makePunt96.1%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:41CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:15CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:22WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.3%97% to makeGo for two28.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:50CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:36CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:38CLEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55WAKE Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick4.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:50WAKE Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick3.1%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.2%45% to convert
- Q4 2:19CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3241% → 41%
CLEMDrive 2FG7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3459% → 59%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
59.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 16 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4341% → 40%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
59.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 17 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
59.1%
Sam Hartman sacked by Etinosa Reuben for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-7
59.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Trenton Simpson and K.J. Henry for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
59.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 44 yds , Will Brown returns for no gain to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:5959% → 62%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
59.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+9
59.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 9 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+52
59.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 52 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1538% → 37%
CLEMDrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0363% → 64%
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
64.4%
Kobe Pace run for 17 yds to the WFrst 20 Kobe Pace fumbled, forced by Chase Jones, recovered by WFrst Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1836% → 35%
CLEMDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3664% → 64%
Q1 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+11
64.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
65.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Swinney for 2 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
64.3%
Will Spiers punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG15 plays · 81 yds · 4:1734% → 36%
Q2 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+9
67.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
66.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
66.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
65.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 16 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
65.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+13
63.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 13 yds to the Clem 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD12 plays · 71 yds · 4:4566% → 76%
WAKEDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4624% → 33%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
74.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 6 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+9
77.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
75.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 10 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
75.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 31 yds to the Clem 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1170% → 72%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
69.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
71.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 4 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass intercepted Malik Mustapha return for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13INT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
70.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 12 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 8 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
50
+11
69.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-8
68.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Baylon Spector and Myles Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 18
OPP 47
0
71.2%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Andrew Booth Jr. return for no gain to the Clem 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FUMBLE7 plays · 63 yds · 2:5071% → 75%
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
74.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei run for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 15 D.J. Uiagalelei fumbled, recovered by WFrst Rondell BothroydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16FUMBLE1 play · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
70.8%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 20 Christian Turner fumbled, forced by Myles Murphy, recovered by Clem Baylon SpectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0075% → 85%
WAKEDrive 18FG8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3217% → 21%
CLEMDrive 19TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2581% → 93%
WAKEDrive 20FUMBLE2 plays · -5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.6%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 20 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by Clem Tyler DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2994% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:332% → 7%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 14 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+15
98.1%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Wiggins, Nate) 15 yards to the CLEMSON37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+11
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 11 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+6
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23FG14 plays · 57 yds · 7:3097% → 99%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
97.7%
Will Shipley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 47 Will Shipley fumbled, recovered by Clem Will ShipleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:111% → 8%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 8 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 15 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
99.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 11 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
99.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 30 yds to the Clem 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Turner Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD5 plays · 43 yds · 2:2198% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF GAME6 plays · 5 yds · 2:191% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:36
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 58 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q3 10:50
Kobe Pace run for 8 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 1:22
Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
-8