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FSU

Florida State 26 at Boston College 23

BC
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:42 · Phil Jurkovec pass intercepted return for no gain to the FlaSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−9.8Score differential−1.4Pregame prior+0.3Garbage-time factor−8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:50: Ryan Fitzgerald 36 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:23: Malik McClain 15 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:10: Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +15.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:57: Phil Jurkovec 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BC win probability +9.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:21: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +21.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:33BC 4th & 10 at BC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40FSU 4th & 24 at BC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40BC 4th & 1 at BC 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13BC 4th & 13 at FSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:25BC 4th & 2 at FSU 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:32FSU 4th & 11 at BC 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50FSU 4th & 7 at BC 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−8.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23BC 4th & 1 at BC 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 21 at FSU 9, up 16
    Numbers favored punt by 4.4 ptsWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%−4.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:10BC 4th & 3 at FSU 3, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    -2.9%−15.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00FSU 4th & 10 at BC 39, up 16
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:57BC 4th & 3 at FSU 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:57FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:00FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:21BC 4th & 2 at BC 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.1%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:42BC 4th & 9 at FSU 37, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.5 ptsWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%−4.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−12.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 24 at FSU 11, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 12.3 ptsWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%−12.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:43FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:42FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:23FSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:10BC Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:57BC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:21BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2260% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
59.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaden Williams for 19 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:5340% → 40%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
59.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 13 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
59.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 22 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
59.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the BC 40Similar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+3
59.7%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+8
59.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
59.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
59.6%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-15
59.7%
TRAVIS, Jordan pass to the left complete for 19 yards to WILSON, Jordan caught at the BOS16 and advanced to the BOS6 (BARLOW, Brandon). PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on WILSON, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the BOS40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+15
59.8%
TRAVIS, Jordan pass to the left incomplete intended for CORBIN, Jashaun thrown to the BOS27. PENALTY BOS Pass Interference on ARNOLD, Kam enforced 15 yards to the BOS25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
59.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
59.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
59.7%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jaiden Woodbey and Cam Horsley for 0 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 24
OPP 39
0
59.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0060% → 59%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
59.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offsides (Omarion Cooper) to the BC 6Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+3
59.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 9
0
59.6%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 9Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
59.3%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 10Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+7
59.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 47 yds , Ontaria Wilson returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5741% → 46%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
50
0
58.8%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
50
+3
59.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+7
59.0%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
58.8%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
58.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+15
58.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
58.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BC 16Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
53.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:2456% → 56%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.6%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Derrick McLendon II for 0 yards to the BC 31Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+7
55.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for 7 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+15
55.8%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass to the left incomplete intended for LUCHETTI, Joey thrown to the FSU44. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on COOPER, Omarion enforced 15 yards to the FSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
56.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
56.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+15
56.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Targeting on ROBINSON, Jammie enforced (Jammie Robinson) to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
56.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
56.0%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Fabien Lovett for 0 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
54.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
56.2%
Connor Lytton 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:2943% → 54%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
56.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+20
56.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 20 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
55.7%
TRAVIS, Jordan pass to the right incomplete intended for MCDONALD, Camren thrown to the FSU48. PENALTY BOS Offsides on BYCZKO, Jake enforced 5 yards from the FSU42 to the FSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+18
55.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 18 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
55.0%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
54.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
54.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 3 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7DOWNS
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:1748% → 42%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
48.4%
Alec Sinkfield run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
47.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
48.1%
Alec Sinkfield run for 9 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
48.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
49.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
48.9%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+16
47.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
49.5%
Alec Sinkfield run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+12
50.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
50.4%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-1
43.3%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+1
42.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5358% → 60%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+41
42.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 41 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
40.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 5 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
40.1%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
40.4%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
41.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 44Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 6
OPP 44
-5
41.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on SMITH, Maurice enforced (-5 Yards) to the BC 49Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
40.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9SF
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0539% → 36%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
38.8%
Alec Sinkfield run for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
38.8%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Keir Thomas for 0 yards to the BC 6Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 14
OWN 6
0
36.1%
Kalen DeLoach SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:2266% → 78%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
33.7%
Jordan Travis run for 12 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
33.2%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+26
33.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 26 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
32.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
32.5%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
32.8%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
22.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2233% → 32%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
32.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
31.8%
Travis Levy run for 9 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+47
31.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 37 yds FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:2374% → 72%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Jordan Travis sacked by Marcus Valdez for 0 yards to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
28.0%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3272% → 88%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
27.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 19 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
26.1%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
26.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 15 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
25.8%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+21
26.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 21 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
11.8%
Malik McClain 15 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:0520% → 27%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
20.0%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Keir Thomas for 0 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
19.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+17
19.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
22.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
22.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
22.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
11.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 5:0581% → 87%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
19.0%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+12
18.9%
Jordan Travis run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
18.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+14
18.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 14 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
17.8%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
17.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-1
17.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 34Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
19.5%
TRAVIS, Jordan pass up the middle incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Ja'Khi broken up by PALMER, Mike at the BOS30. PENALTY Before the snap, FSU Illegal Formation BOS Offsides on VALDEZ, Marcus , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 5
OPP 34
-5
19.5%
TRAVIS, Jordan pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to YOUNG, Jordan caught at the BOS30 and advanced to the BOS28 (JONES, Elijah). PENALTY Before the snap, FSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BOS34 to the BOS39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
13.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds, downed at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 5:0318% → 27%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
18.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 11
-2
18.5%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 9Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+5
17.7%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass to the left incomplete intended for FLOWERS, Zay thrown to the BOS14. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on GANT, Brendan enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the BOS14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
18.4%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 14Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+15
18.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Omarion Cooper) to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
19.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+44
16.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 44 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
20.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Joey Luchetti) to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
19.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
19.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+17
18.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 17 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
20.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.3%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
17.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete pass incomplete Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Robert Cooper , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.7%
Phil Jurkovec 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0076% → 77%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.4%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
25.2%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+24
22.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3624% → 47%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
23.5%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
24.2%
Alec Sinkfield run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
24.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
46.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2163% → 63%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 13 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
34.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
33.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
34.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
36.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan Travis) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
36.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:1843% → 31%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
43.1%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 11Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
42.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 12 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
43.6%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
43.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 12 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
47.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
41.1%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 43Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+4
38.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 4 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
42.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+6
44.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
44.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-1
44.1%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
42.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
31.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass intercepted return for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · -14 yds · 1:3787% → 92%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
13.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
8.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
9.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Mike Palmer for 0 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 19
OWN 16
-5
9.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan Travis) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
7.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:21
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 8:10
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 12:23
Malik McClain 15 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com