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LOU

Louisville 62 at Duke 22

DUKE
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.4DUKE 0.9%Riley Leonard run for 35 yds for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 48 - HOME 22 · Q4 14:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:54 · Riley Leonard run for 35 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−46.2Pregame prior−14.1Score differential−35.1Garbage-time factor−14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:58: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 20 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:26: Malik Cunningham run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 8:34: Charlie Ham 28 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +1.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:29: Malik Cunningham run for 72 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:36: Jalen Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:10LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:33DUKE 4th & 4 at LOU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:19LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:07DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34DUKE 4th & 6 at LOU 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:02DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00LOU 4th & 3 at DUKE 20, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:47DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 42, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23DUKE 4th & 5 at LOU 32, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:40DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 40, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:10LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:58LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:26LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:29LOU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:36LOU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:46LOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:06DUKE Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:15LOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:54DUKE Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:17LOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:10LOU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:2091% → 90%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
9.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
9.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+16
9.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 16 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
10.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 32 Jalen Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Lvile Jalen MitchellSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+1
10.3%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+12
10.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 12 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+21
10.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 21 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
10.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-15
10.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevor Reid) to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 24
OPP 48
+48
10.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 48 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:1711% → 13%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
10.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
10.8%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jalon Calhoun) to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+16
10.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 16 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
11.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
11.2%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
11.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
11.6%
Holmberg, Gunnar pass incomplete to Pancol, Eli, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Vance, Greedy) 12 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
11.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
11.9%
Jordan Moore run for 4 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
12.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 4Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
12.9%
Charlie Ham 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4187% → 86%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
12.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
12.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 17 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
12.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
12.9%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-5
13.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Adonis Boone) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
13.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+8
13.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Isaiah Fisher-Smith blocked by Isaiah Fisher-Smith Isaiah Fisher-Smith return for 8 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4114% → 14%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
14.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
14.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-27
14.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass intercepted Marvin Dallas return for 27 yds to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2887% → 88%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
13.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
13.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+14
13.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 14 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
11.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 20 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4012% → 12%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
12.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
12.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
12.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 yds, downed at the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:3488% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
12.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
12.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+13
12.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
11.7%
Trevion Cooley run for 21 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
11.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+7
12.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Shai Werts for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-5
12.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Caleb Chandler) to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+44
7.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:319% → 12%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
9.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
9.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Cole Finney for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+11
9.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
10.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 20 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
10.4%
Trent Davis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
10.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
10.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Cole FinneySimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
11.7%
Charlie Ham 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4690% → 94%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
10.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
10.2%
Mitchell, Jalen rush for 4 yards to the LOUISVILLE42, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Boone, Adonis) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+72
6.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 72 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:588% → 8%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.6%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Trent Davis for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.6%
Jordan Moore pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-2
7.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2394% → 97%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
6.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+28
6.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 13 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Fisher-Smith) to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
5.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 22 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
5.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-2
5.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Shai Werts for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+6
5.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+9
5.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
4.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jalen MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
3.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 11 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF
19 plays · 67 yds · 1:153% → 1%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
2.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
2.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
2.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+19
1.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 19 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
1.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22 Gunnar Holmberg fumbled, forced by Malik Clark, recovered by Duke Carson Van LynnSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
1.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+10
1.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
1.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
1.3%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Carson Van Lynn) to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+9
1.2%
Holmberg, Gunnar pass incomplete to Dalmolin, Nicky, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Duncan, Kenderick) 9 yards to the LOUISVILLE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
1.2%
Charlie Ham 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:222% → 2%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
1.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
1.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+11
1.7%
Porter Wilson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
1.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
1.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
1.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
1.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
1.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
1.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
1.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
1.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
1.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
1.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 35 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
1.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
1.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
1.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 14 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
1.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
1.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
1.1%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
1.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
1.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 11 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
1.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 14 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.1%
Jalon Calhoun run for 6 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
1.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+23
1.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Melton for 23 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
0.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
0.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds for a TD, (James Turner PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
0.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Bobo for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
0.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 8 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
0.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
0.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+35
0.9%
Riley Leonard run for 35 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
0.9%
Leonard, Riley pass attempt to Calhoun, Jalon failed, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Vance, Greedy) 1 yards to the LOUISVILLE2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Melton for 21 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
0.7%
Maurice Burkley run for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
0.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
0.6%
Maurice Burkley run for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
0.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 36 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
0.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+10
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
0.2%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+13
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 13 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.2%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
0.2%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
0.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 8 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-8
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 24 Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Qwynnterrio Cole, recovered by Lvile Dorian JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
0.2%
Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+9
0.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
0.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 21 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Brock Domann run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
0.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+34
0.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 34 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.1%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
0.1%
Trent Davis run for 3 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Trent Davis run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Trent Davis run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-1
0.1%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22Uncategorized
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
0.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:26
Malik Cunningham run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-4.1
TD · Q2 7:29
Malik Cunningham run for 72 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-4
TD · Q1 0:58
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 20 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com