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DUKE

Duke 17 at Virginia Tech 48

VT
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:22 · Peter Moore punt for 55 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 3 yds to the Duke 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense+22.5Score differential+11.8Garbage-time factor+11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:38: Raheem Blackshear run for 20 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +2.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:53: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Keshawn King for 47 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +6.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:16: John Parker Romo 51 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +2.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:08: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 30 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:22: Jordan Moore pass complete to Eli Pancol for 28 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:05VT 4th & 6 at DUKE 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:33DUKE 4th & 6 at VT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41DUKE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:02VT 4th & 12 at DUKE 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:18DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:36DUKE 4th & 7 at VT 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16VT 4th & 23 at DUKE 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:03DUKE 4th & 10 at VT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:39VT 4th & 7 at VT 17, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00VT 4th & 5 at DUKE 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:51DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:34DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51VT 4th & 7 at DUKE 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:22VT 4th & 7 at VT 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:21DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:01DUKE 4th & 4 at VT 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:38VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:08VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:22DUKE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:12VT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:19VT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:10DUKE Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:28VT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:4880% → 80%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+29
80.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 29 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
80.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
80.1%
Tre Turner run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+1
79.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
79.7%
Peter Moore punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:1421% → 22%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
79.5%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+2
79.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
79.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Bobo for 15 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
79.1%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
78.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
78.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Marwede for 33 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
78.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
78.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
78.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
78.3%
Charlie Ham 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5079% → 81%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
78.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+27
78.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
50
+12
78.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 12 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
78.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for 18 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
80.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 20 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4320% → 20%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
80.0%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
80.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
79.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 5
50
-3
79.3%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+3
79.7%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 5
50
0
79.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2880% → 80%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+40
80.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 40 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
80.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 20 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-3
80.8%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
80.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
79.5%
John Parker Romo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4921% → 21%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
79.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
79.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
78.8%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.0%
Riley Leonard sacked by Dax Hollifield for 0 yards to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+2
79.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+14
80.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 14 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
79.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
85.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Keshawn King for 47 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:2116% → 16%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.6%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
83.6%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
83.9%
LEONARD, Riley pass up the middle incomplete intended for PANCOL, Eli thrown to the DU 35. PENALTY VT Pass Interference on WALLER, Jermaine enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the DU 35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
83.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-5
84.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Stinson) to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2285% → 85%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
85.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
85.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4617% → 18%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
82.8%
Jordan Moore run for no gain to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
82.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+10
83.8%
run for 10 yds to the VTech 4 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Amare Barno, recovered by VTech Tae DaleySimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+5
83.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the VTech 9Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
81.9%
Charlie Ham 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:0783% → 87%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
82.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
82.8%
TURNER, Tre rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the VT 18 (FRYE, Ben), out of bounds. PENALTY VT Holding on TENUTA, Luke enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the VT 9 to the VT 4 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+7
82.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+27
82.5%
Knox Kadum pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 27 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
83.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
84.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+34
83.5%
Knox Kadum pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 34 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
84.3%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+10
84.8%
THOMAS, Malachi rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the DU 15 (YOUNG IV, Lummie). PENALTY VT Holding on TENUTA, Luke enforced 10 yards from the DU 24 to the DU 34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 23
OPP 34
0
84.5%
Knox Kadum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 23
OPP 34
0
83.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 23
OPP 34
+51
86.7%
John Parker Romo 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:0714% → 13%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
86.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
86.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 11 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
86.4%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
86.8%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
87.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13END OF HALF
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:0188% → 87%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
88.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-3 Yards) to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+2
87.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+6
87.9%
Tre Turner run for 6 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+34
87.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 19 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Isaiah Fisher-Smith) to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TENUTA, Luke ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
89.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
88.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+41
89.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 41 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
87.4%
LEONARD, Riley pass to the left incomplete intended for BOBO, Jake thrown to the DU 43. PENALTY VT Pass Interference on WALLER, Jermaine enforced 15 yards to the DU 40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:5613% → 13%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.7%
Riley Leonard sacked by Chamarri Conner for 0 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+1
87.7%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+10
88.2%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+24
87.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 24 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2889% → 96%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
88.8%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+10
88.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 10 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
89.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
50
+12
89.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
89.8%
run for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
96.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 30 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.6%
Riley Leonard sacked by Alan Tisdale and Jaylen Griffin for 0 yards to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+9
96.0%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+6
96.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 34 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2496% → 97%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
50
+8
96.3%
Keshawn King run for 8 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
96.4%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
96.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 11 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
96.8%
run for 5 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-2
96.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
97.1%
John Parker Romo 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:213% → 7%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.1%
Jordan Moore run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-14
97.2%
MOORE, Jordan pass to the right incomplete intended for PANCOL, Eli broken up by WALLER, Jermaine at the DU 48. PENALTY VT Pass Interference on WALLER, Jermaine enforced 14 yards to the DU 44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-10
97.4%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jontavis Robertson) to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
97.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chamarri Conner) to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
97.5%
Jordan Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-10
97.5%
QB Keeper MOORE, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the VT 32 (PEOPLES, Nasir). PENALTY DU Holding on WOHLABAUGH, Jack enforced 10 yards from the VT 40 to the DU 50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 21
50
+12
97.6%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
97.8%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+5
97.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 14
OPP 43
+15
97.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Amare Barno) to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
92.9%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Eli Pancol for 28 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2795% → 95%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
94.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+3
94.8%
Peter Moore punt for 55 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:395% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.0%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
95.1%
Jordan Moore run for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
95.4%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
95.5%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-15
95.7%
MOORE, Jordan pass to the right complete for 20 yards to HARDING JR., Darrell caught at the VT 35 and advanced to the VT 35 (STRONG, Dorian). PENALTY DU Pass Interference on HARDING JR., Darrell enforced 15 yards to the DU 30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+43
96.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 43 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:2197% → 99%
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+15
96.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 15 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 13 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:421% → 0%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.9%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.9%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
TyJuan Garbutt 16 Yd Fumble Return (John Parker Romo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:490% → 1%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
99.9%
Jordan Moore run for 40 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
99.9%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 11 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 9 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
99.9%
Jordan Moore run for 8 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.9%
Jordan Moore run for 2 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
Jordan Moore run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.1%
Keshawn King run for 10 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.2%
Keshawn King run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+49
99.3%
Keshawn King run for 49 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.3%
run for 6 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Keshawn King run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+15
100.0%
Jordan Moore run for 15 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Trent Davis run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+16
100.0%
Jordan Moore run for 16 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Trent Davis run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Trent Davis run for 6 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Trent Davis run for 4 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
100.0%
Trent Davis run for 1 yd to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Jordan Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+5
100.0%
Jordan Moore run for 5 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:08
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 30 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 12:53
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Keshawn King for 47 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 2:22
Jordan Moore pass complete to Eli Pancol for 28 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com