2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:21 · Ian Hawkins punt for 30 yds, downed at the Syrac 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:13: Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:34: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 33 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:35: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:19: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 41 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 17 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 11:27SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.4%average punt
- Q1 5:34SYR 4th & 2 at LOU 25, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call37.5%−0.266% to makePunt36.2%−1.5average punt
- Q2 14:51SYR 4th & 23 at SYR 4, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it31.1%−1.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q2 11:21SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 35, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it21.6%−2.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q2 5:55SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 31, down 25Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it18.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 4:17LOU 4th & 7 at SYR 42, up 25Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.4%37% to convertField goal89.8%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call90.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:21SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 15, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q3 10:54LOU 4th & 3 at SYR 14, up 32Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%−<0.184% to makePunt98.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:36SYR 4th & 2 at LOU 2, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%48% to convertField goal0.7%−0.194% to makePunt0.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:27LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 4, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 14:19SYR 4th & 21 at LOU 35, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.19% to convertField goal0.3%45% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:05LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 43, up 35Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:16SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:28LOU 4th & 2 at SYR 41, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.232% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:25LOU 4th & 4 at SYR 9, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%43% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.189% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:13LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:34LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:35LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:19LOU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25LOU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1741% → 41%
Q1 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
59.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 5 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for no gain to the Syrac 47Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Ian Hawkins punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0159% → 62%
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
59.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Garrett Williams) to the Syrac 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3FG7 plays · 50 yds · 3:3139% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4861% → 66%
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Mikel Jones for 0 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+18
60.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 18 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
61.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 9 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
66.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 33 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:1934% → 33%
LOUDrive 6TD5 plays · 33 yds · 0:4868% → 76%
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+23
68.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 23 yds to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+23
68.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 23 yds to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4925% → 23%
LOUDrive 8TD6 plays · 69 yds · 3:0277% → 85%
Q2 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
78.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+15
77.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Targeting on JONES, Mikel enforced (Mikel Jones) to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+41
84.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 41 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4220% → 18%
LOUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2090% → 90%
SYRDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2816% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD6 plays · 45 yds · 2:3892% → 97%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
92.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 5 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+11
92.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 11 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
97.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 17 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 4 yds · 0:143% → 2%
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Yasir Abdullah for 0 yards to the Syrac 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG8 plays · 56 yds · 3:4097% → 99%
SYRDrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 65 yds · 7:111% → 1%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.8%
SHRADER, Garrett pass to the right incomplete intended for BENSON, Luke thrown to the SYR44. PENALTY LOU Roughing the Passer on AVERY, C.J. enforced 15 yards from the SYR25 to the SYR40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
99.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 4 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
98.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offsides (Marvin Dallas) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 5 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 6 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.2%
Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 10 fumbled, recovered by Lvile Greedy VanceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
SYRDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · -11 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 0:25
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+2
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 2 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-10
99.8%
SHRADER, Garrett pass to the left complete for 4 yards to JOHNSON, Sharod caught at the LOU24 and advanced to the LOU20 (COLE, Qwynnterrio). PENALTY SYR Illegal Block in the Back on ALFORD, Damien enforced 10 yards from the LOU24 to the LOU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
SYRDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
99.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 11 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+14
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 14 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Tabarius Peterson and Allen Smith for 0 yards to the Syrac 38Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 14
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
HAWKINS, Ian punt 51 yards to the LOU11 out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, SYR Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SYR38 to the SYR33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG12 plays · 40 yds · 5:47100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · 29 yds · 1:580% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:35
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 8:19
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 41 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q1 1:34
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 33 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+4.5