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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:13 · Will Spiers punt for 41 yds , Keelan Marion returns for 1 yd to the UConn 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:13: B.T. Potter 49 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:03: Will Swinney run for 6 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CONN win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:31: Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:15: D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 32 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:20: Phil Mafah run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 12 of 15CONN made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 14:47CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 14:47CLEM 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%71% to convertField goal98.6%−0.247% to makePunt98.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:13CLEM 4th & 10 at CONN 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%51% to makePunt98.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:49CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 3:03CLEM 4th & 6 at CONN 6, down 4Close callWent for it · 97.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.1%−<0.131% to convertField goal97.1%91% to makePunt96.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:22CONN 4th & 14 at CONN 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 13:31CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 11:06CONN 4th & 3 at CLEM 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%53% to convertField goal2.9%−0.149% to makePunt2.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:01CLEM 4th & 15 at CONN 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%51% to makePunt96.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:30CLEM 4th & 5 at CONN 12, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%86% to makePunt96.3%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:49CONN 4th & 29 at CONN 33, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 2:59CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 28, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 2:36CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 33, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 2:13CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 24, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q2 0:49CONN 4th & 18 at CONN 42, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 14:59CLEM 4th & 1 at CONN 8, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%70% to convertField goal98.6%−0.290% to makePunt98.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:51CLEM 4th & 17 at CONN 44, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.115% to convertField goal99.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 5:10CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 9, down 30Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:24CLEM 4th & 13 at CONN 43, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.121% to convertField goal99.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 1:26CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 17, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:54CLEM 4th & 3 at CONN 46, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.7%−0.223% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:27CONN 4th & 5 at CLEM 49, down 30Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:27CLEM 4th & 6 at CONN 12, up 30Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.136% to convertField goal99.9%86% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:33CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 27, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:36CLEM 4th & 8 at CONN 42, up 30Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%34% to convertField goal99.8%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:16CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 32, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:08CONN 4th & 5 at CLEM 7, down 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%34% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.191% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:00CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 15, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 3:03CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:31CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15CLEM Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20CLEM Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:36CLEM Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1FG TD18 plays · 34 yds · 5:3499% → 99%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 2 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+1
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 1 yd to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+7
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 7 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 14:47
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+5
99.1%
Uiagalelei,DJ pass incomplete to Williams,E.J. broken up by Wortham,Tre PENALTY CON Offside 5 yards from CON48 to CON43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 8 yds to the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 2:241% → 2%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Keelan Marion for 14 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.6%
Zergiotis,Jack pass incomplete to Clercius,Kevens PENALTY CLE Pass Interference (Goodrich,Mario) 15 yards from CON39 to CLE46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+3
98.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-5
98.6%
PENALTY CON False Start (Haynes,Christian) 5 yards from CLE48 to CON47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
98.4%
Haydn Kerr punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4698% → 98%
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+25
98.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
50
+11
98.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 11 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
98.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+23
98.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 23 yds to the UConn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:412% → 2%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
98.1%
Jack Zergiotis sacked by Tyler Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
97.9%
Joe McFadden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
97.8%
Uiagalelei,DJ pass incomplete to Williams,E.J. PENALTY CON Pass Interference (Cross,Stan) 15 yards from CLE36 to CON49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
97.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Dacari Collins for 33 yds to the UConn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:002% → 2%
CLEMDrive 7INT2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
CONNDrive 8DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:502% → 2%
Q2 12:56
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+14
97.8%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Aaron Turner for 14 yds to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9FG9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
97.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 2 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+31
97.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 31 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
97.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Darien Rencher for 12 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Uiagalelei,DJ pass incomplete QB hurried by Swenson,Ian PENALTY CLE Intentional Grounding (Uiagalelei,DJ). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10INT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:322% → 2%
CLEMDrive 11FG4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 8 yds · 2:412% → 2%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Aaron Turner for 12 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
97.9%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Aaron Turner for 15 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 23
OWN 39
-6
98.0%
Jack Zergiotis sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:232% → 2%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2398% → 98%
Q2 2:13
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.0%
Will Spiers punt for 41 yds , Keelan Marion returns for 1 yd to the UConn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:243% → 2%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
97.5%
PENALTY CON False Start (Walker,Sidney) 5 yards from CON36 to CON31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+4
97.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Jay Rose for 4 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
97.6%
Jack Zergiotis pass complete to Aaron Turner for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
50
-8
97.5%
Jack Zergiotis sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the UConn 42 Jack Zergiotis fumbled, recovered by UConn Christian Haynes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Joe McFadden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD6 plays · 88 yds · 0:3498% → 99%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
98.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 8 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+19
98.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 19 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
98.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 29 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 32 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD14 plays · 46 yds · 4:3999% → 100%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
99.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 14 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+12
99.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Blackmon Huckabee Jr. for 12 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
99.1%
Uiagalelei,DJ pass incomplete to Swinney,Drew PENALTY CLE Pass Interference (Collins,Dacari) 15 yards from CON06 to CON21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.0%
Uiagalelei,DJ pass incomplete to Collins,Dacari PENALTY CON Pass Interference (Wortham,Tre) 5 yards from CON07 to CON02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:530% → 0%
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
CONNDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q3 5:10
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Joe McFadden punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 3:24
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Will Spiers punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keelan Marion at the UConn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Brian Brewton for 5 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
PENALTY CON False Start (Van Demark,Ryan) 5 yards from CON19 to CON14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
99.9%
PENALTY CON False Start (Niemenski,Brandon) 5 yards from CON22 to CON17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Joe McFadden punt for 45 yds , Will Swinney returns for no gain to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 18 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Troy Stellato for 3 yds to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:270% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27FUMBLE10 plays · 51 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:27
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+32
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Max May for 32 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Luke Price for 7 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Darien Rencher run for 1 yd Darien Rencher fumbled, forced by Jackson Mitchell, recovered by UConn Hunter WebbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:580% → 0%
CLEMDrive 29PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Rencher,Darien rush for 5 yards gain to the CLE50 (UConn), out of bounds PENALTY CON Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CLE45 to CLE50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 5
50
+6
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Hampton Earle for 6 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 30DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Brian Brewton for 13 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 7 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 2 yds to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 31TD3 plays · 30 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
CONNDrive 32DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Brandon Niemenski for 7 yds to the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 33PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Will Spiers punt for 38 yds , Keelan Marion returns for no gain to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:15
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 32 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q3 10:20
Phil Mafah run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.7
FG · Q1 9:13
B.T. Potter 49 yd FG GOOD
-0.5