2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:46 · Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Clem 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:16: Malik Cunningham run for 23 yds for a TD (Nolan Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +3.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:18: D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +11.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:29: Malik Cunningham run for 51 yds for a TD (Nolan Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:12: D.J. Uiagalelei run for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +43.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:19: B.T. Potter 40 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 9:46LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.6%average punt
- Q1 8:17CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it55.5%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 5:54LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snapGo for it43.9%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q1 3:39CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%average punt
- Q1 2:29LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snapGo for it45.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q2 14:25CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 14, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snapGo for it47.6%−1.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 10:32LOU 4th & 3 at CLEM 26, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snapGo for it54.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call53.9%−0.664% to makePunt50.0%−4.5average punt
- Q2 5:44CLEM 4th & 2 at LOU 21, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snapGo for it39.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call39.1%−0.874% to makePunt33.6%−6.3average punt
- Q2 1:33LOU 4th & 15 at CLEM 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it59.2%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q3 13:15CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 19, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it41.5%−3.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%average punt
- Q3 9:21CLEM 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.4%59% to convertField goal35.2%−4.294% to makePunt24.2%−15.2average punt
- Q3 2:33LOU 4th & 11 at CLEM 34, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snapGo for it68.9%−1.127% to convertField goalTheir call70.0%47% to makePunt68.3%−1.6average punt
- Q3 0:01CLEM 4th & 14 at LOU 47, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it30.6%−3.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q4 14:15LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 13, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it70.7%−2.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q4 10:17CLEM 4th & 9 at LOU 17, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snapGo for it24.9%−3.029% to convertField goalTheir call27.9%80% to makePunt14.4%−13.5average punt
- Q4 8:11LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it61.1%−8.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q4 2:40LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 29, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt27.1%−3.6average punt
- Q4 2:19CLEM 4th & 8 at LOU 23, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snapGo for it67.8%−2.933% to convertField goalTheir call70.7%70% to makePunt47.1%−23.6average punt
- Q4 1:18LOU 4th & 1 at CLEM 21, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.9%71% to convertField goal12.3%−13.674% to makePunt8.9%−17.0average punt
- Q4 0:10LOU 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.7%48% to convertField goal14.0%−29.794% to makePunt8.9%−34.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:08LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:09CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:16LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call50.4%97% to makeGo for two50.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:18CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call47.5%97% to makeGo for two47.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:12CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call63.2%97% to makeGo for two62.1%−1.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLOUDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3243% → 45%
CLEMDrive 2TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4255% → 57%
LOUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0944% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2356% → 55%
Q1 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
44.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for no gain to the Clem 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1145% → 45%
Q1 5:54
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+6
44.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 yds , Will Brown returns for 6 yds to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0055% → 54%
LOUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5246% → 46%
LOUDrive 8TD3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4449% → 53%
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
49.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2348% → 46%
LOUDrive 10FG8 plays · 33 yds · 3:4154% → 59%
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+13
54.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 13 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11FG11 plays · 54 yds · 4:2841% → 42%
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+26
59.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 26 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+10
59.7%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the LOU42 (REIGER, Mason). PENALTY LOU Holding on VANCE, Greedy enforced 10 yards from the LOU39 to the LOU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5761% → 62%
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
60.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 17 yds to the Lvile 40 fumbled, recovered by Lvile Justin Marshall for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+14
62.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 14 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+7
62.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 7 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
61.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD11 plays · 86 yds · 1:1037% → 52%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
62.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 10 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
62.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 5 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
63.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 8 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
62.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
50
+27
61.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 27 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
58.1%
SHIPLEY, Will rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the LOU16 (TURNER, Jacques). PENALTY LOU Targeting on FAGOT, Jack enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the LOU16 to the LOU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3746% → 43%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Dorian Jones and Tabarius Peterson for 0 yards to the Clem 19Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
56.7%
Will Spiers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
57.4%
QB Keeper CUNNINGHAM, Malik rush to the left for no gain to the LOU41 (TURNER, Nolan), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, LOU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LOU41 to the LOU36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD3 plays · 59 yds · 1:0456% → 65%
CLEMDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4544% → 40%
Q3 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 4 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18MISSED FG14 plays · 65 yds · 6:3065% → 70%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
64.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+47
66.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 57 yds to the LOUISVILLE 24 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1035% → 32%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
64.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 7 yds to the Clem 41Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+17
64.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2874% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21FG9 plays · 40 yds · 3:4535% → 36%
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
60.9%
SHIPLEY, Will rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the LOU26 (ABDULLAH, Yasir). PENALTY CLE Holding on ENNIS, Sage enforced 10 yards from the LOU35 to the LOU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+6
65.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 6 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+21
69.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5569% → 68%
Q4 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
69.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 5 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Trenton Simpson for 0 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
67.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4036% → 75%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
63.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
61.1%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Justyn thrown to the LOU8. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on VANCE, Greedy enforced 15 yards to the LOU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+10
61.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 10 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0745% → 40%
Q4 2:40
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
39.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Andrew Mukuba for 0 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25FG6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1679% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 71 yds · 1:5419% → 16%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
18.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 45 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+19
17.2%
pass incomplete for a 1ST down to Justin Marshall for 19 yds to the Clem 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by James Skalski for 0 yards to the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:12
D.J. Uiagalelei run for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-43.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.7
TD · Q2 0:18
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-11.1