Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 54 at Duke 29

DUKE
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:01 · Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior−33.6Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:48: Jaylen Stinson 86 Yd Kickoff Return (Charlie Ham Kick) — DUKE win probability +3.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: K. Pickett run for 22 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +5.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:38: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 29 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:36: Jordan Addison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:41: Riley Leonard pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 4:26DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:46DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54PITT 4th & 11 at DUKE 36, down 5
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:38DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:53PITT 4th & 2 at DUKE 6, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:01DUKE 4th & 23 at DUKE 6, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:42PITT 4th & 9 at DUKE 16, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45DUKE 4th & 26 at DUKE 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:07DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:34DUKE 4th & 4 at PITT 12, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:53PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:17DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:20PITT 4th & 10 at DUKE 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:38DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:54DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 25, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:09PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:16DUKE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:59PITT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:48DUKE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:00PITT Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:38PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:36PITT Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:41DUKE Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:22PITT Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
17 plays · 74 yds · 5:488% → 10%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
7.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
7.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
7.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
7.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
7.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
7.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+11
7.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
7.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
7.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+11
7.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 11 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
7.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
7.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+8
7.9%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
7.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+8
10.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the Pitt 24 John Morgan III fumbled, forced by Eli Pancol, recovered by Pitt Brandon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5890% → 91%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
9.7%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+37
9.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 37 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
9.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+14
9.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 14 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
9.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
9.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
9.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3810% → 11%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
9.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
9.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
9.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
9.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 27 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
9.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
9.9%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
9.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
11.3%
Charlie Ham 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Duke Ja'Mion Franklin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3312% → 12%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
11.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 17 yds to the Pitt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
11.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
11.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 5 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
12.3%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1712% → 15%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
12.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 21 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
13.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+15
13.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 15 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
15.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 32 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:2286% → 85%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
14.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 28 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
13.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 12 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
13.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
13.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
14.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
15.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:1615% → 16%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
15.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+7
15.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
15.5%
Holmberg,Gunnar pass incomplete to Bobo,Jake PENALTY UP Pass Interference (Mathis,Damarri) 7 yards from DU 21 to DU 28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
15.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
15.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
15.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
15.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:3984% → 86%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
16.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
16.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+15
16.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 15 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
15.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 8 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+47
13.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 47 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:5582% → 81%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.7%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
17.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 11 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
16.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
16.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 9 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
16.2%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
16.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
16.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+15
16.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
15.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
15.8%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
16.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
18.9%
Sam Scarton 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:4721% → 21%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
20.7%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+4
20.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-13
20.8%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 13 yards to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 28
OWN 1
-5
20.9%
Wilson,Porter punt 41 yards to the DU 42, out of bounds PENALTY UP Running Into The Kicker (Petrishen,John) 5 yards from DU 01 to DU 06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 23
OWN 6
+3
21.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0179% → 86%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
20.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
50
+1
19.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+18
19.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 18 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
19.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
14.3%
K. Pickett run for 22 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1416% → 16%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
16.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
17.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
16.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
16.0%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+27
15.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 27 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:5985% → 87%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
15.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 46 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
14.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 1 yd to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
14.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
15.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
12.7%
Sam Scarton 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 0:5113% → 13%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
13.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
13.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
13.6%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-8
12.6%
Riley Leonard sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 26
OWN 20
0
12.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:4588% → 90%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
12.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
12.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+11
13.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Daniel Carter for 11 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
11.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
12.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 13 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
11.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
11.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
12.1%
(00:10) Pickett,Kenny pass incomplete to Bradley,Jaden, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DU Pass Interference (Johnson,Leonard) 11 yard from DU 34 to DU 23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
10.3%
Sam Scarton 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2287% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
12.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
12.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 15 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
11.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+23
11.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 23 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
5.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 29 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:257% → 7%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
7.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
7.1%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
7.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:3794% → 94%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
6.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+17
6.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 17 yds Jaden Bradley fumbled, forced by Dorian Mausi, recovered by Duke Da'Quan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:568% → 10%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
8.0%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
8.1%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
8.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
8.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+12
8.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
8.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 6 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
8.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
8.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+31
10.4%
Charlie Ham 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5892% → 98%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
7.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
7.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
7.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 10 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
7.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+17
6.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 17 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rodney Hammond Jr.Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+20
7.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 20 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.1%
Jordan Addison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
18 plays · 67 yds · 5:483% → 11%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
2.9%
Leonard,Riley pass incomplete to Bobo,Jake PENALTY DU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (McIntyre,Maurice) 5 yards from DU 33 to DU 28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+9
2.8%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
2.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
3.0%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
3.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+8
3.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 8 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
3.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 14
OPP 48
-10
3.0%
Leonard,Riley rush for 8 yards gain to the UP 40 (Petrishen,John; Tallandier,Judson) PENALTY DU Holding (Wohlabaugh,Jack) 10 yards from UP 48 to DU 42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+15
2.9%
Leonard,Riley pass incomplete to Garner,Jarett broken up by Royal,Jahvante PENALTY UP Pass Interference (Royal,Jahvante) 15 yards from DU 42 to UP 43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
3.1%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
3.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
2.8%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
2.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 25 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
2.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
2.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
10.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4494% → 94%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
5.9%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
6.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
6.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
6.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:369% → 8%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
9.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
9.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-6
8.8%
Riley Leonard sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
7.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:5795% → 97%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
4.6%
PENALTY UP False Start (Warren,Carter) 5 yards from UP 39 to UP 34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
4.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
4.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 21 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
4.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
4.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
4.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
4.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
2.8%
Sam Scarton 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
3.5%
Leonard,Riley pass intercepted by Devonshire,M.J. at DU 34 Devonshire,M.J. return 0 yards to the DU 34 (Bobo,Jake), out of bounds PENALTY UP Holding (Devonshire,M.J.) 10 yards from DU 25 to DU 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
3.5%
Leonard,Riley pass complete to Garner,Jarett for 6 yards to the DU 41 (Williams,Marquis) PENALTY DU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Wohlabaugh,Jack) 5 yards from DU 35 to DU 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
3.5%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+10
3.4%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
3.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
3.5%
Riley Leonard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:1698% → 100%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
2.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
2.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
2.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
1.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
1.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+11
1.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jake Zilinskas for 11 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
1.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
1.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
1.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+38
0.1%
Luca Diamont run for 38 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
0.1%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
0.1%
Luca Diamont pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+4
0.1%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 4 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+4
0.1%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Jarett Garner for 4 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
0.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-2
0.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-2
0.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:41
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 12:38
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 29 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q2 4:00
K. Pickett run for 22 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com