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MIA

Miami 38 at Pittsburgh 34

PITT
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:43 · Lou Hedley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense−10.8Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:02: J. Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +8.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:18: K. Pickett pass,to J. Wayne for 12 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +12.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:50: K. Pickett pass,to J. Barden for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +18.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:15: T. Van Dyke pass,to K. Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +22.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:55: Sam Scarton 23 Yd Field Goal — PITT win probability +6.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:54PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25PITT 4th & 8 at MIA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:07MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:16MIA 4th & 4 at PITT 9, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:42PITT 4th & 9 at MIA 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:49MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25PITT 4th & 15 at MIA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:53MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:43MIA 4th & 7 at PITT 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−1.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 2 at MIA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−1.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−15.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:55PITT 4th & 5 at MIA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−14.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:16MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−5.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:55PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 42, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:09PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:31MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:44MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:20MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:50PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:02MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:18PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:50PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:15MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5174% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
73.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+37
73.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 37 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
73.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 10 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
73.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
73.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Zach McCloud and Jordan Miller for 0 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 38
+14
73.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 14 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
73.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 23 yds for a 1ST down pass complete to Taysir Mack for 24 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Israel Abanikanda 1 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3826% → 28%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Calijah Kancey for 0 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+14
74.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+57
74.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 57 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
73.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+20
72.3%
T. Van Dyke pass,to E. Arroyo for 20 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3Uncategorized
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:0373% → 73%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
72.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 23 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
73.1%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
73.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+15
72.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4428% → 30%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
72.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
72.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
72.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
69.8%
T. Van Dyke pass,to W. Mallory for 57 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:5070% → 69%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
ABANIKANDA, Israel rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the PIT26 (STEED, Waymaon). PENALTY PIT Face mask on MINOR, Marcus enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the PIT25 to the PIT12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+7
70.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
70.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Gilbert Frierson for 0 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
68.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds , Jacolby George returns for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
68.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds , Jacolby George returns for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:3431% → 35%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
68.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 20 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
65.1%
J. Knighton run for 40 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:5567% → 66%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+33
66.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 33 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
67.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 8 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+4
67.7%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
67.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
67.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
67.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
65.7%
Sam Scarton 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:1434% → 37%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
65.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
65.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offsides (Keyshon Camp) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.4%
Cody Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
65.6%
VAN DYKE, Tyler pass up the middle complete for 23 yards to SMITH, Keyshawn caught at the MIA48 and advanced to the PIT41 (BRIGHT, Cam). PENALTY MIA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DONALDSON, Navaughn enforced 5 yards from the MIA36 to the MIA31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+15
65.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deslin Alexandre) to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
65.1%
KNIGHTON, Jaylan rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the MIA50 (MORGAN, John;CAMPBELL, Phil). PENALTY MIA Holding on DONALDSON, Navaughn enforced 10 yards from the MIA46 to the MIA36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+3
65.7%
Cody Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
65.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+4
65.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
63.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, downed at the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
63.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, downed at the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:1063% → 70%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+39
62.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 39 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
63.8%
Jordan Addison run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+13
63.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
64.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
64.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
63.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
69.5%
K. Pickett pass,to I. Abanikanda for 20 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:2833% → 40%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
66.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
66.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 13 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
65.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DENNIS, SirVocea enforced (SirVocea Dennis) to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
64.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
64.8%
VAN DYKE, Tyler pass to the left incomplete intended for HARLEY, Mike thrown to the PIT25. PENALTY PIT Roughing the Passer on MORGAN, John enforced 15 yards from the PIT30 to the PIT15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
63.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
64.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
59.7%
Andres Borregales 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:2061% → 59%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
60.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 5 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
61.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 6 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
61.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 12 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+16
61.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 16 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
63.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
63.2%
PICKETT, Kenny pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to ADDISON, Jordan caught at the MIA28 and advanced to the MIA26 (HALL, JR., Gurvan). PENALTY PIT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KRULL, Lucas enforced 5 yards from the MIA39 to the MIA44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+6
62.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
62.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
58.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5342% → 42%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
57.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
57.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-5
58.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
57.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.4%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted return for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3547% → 58%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
53.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 34 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
52.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.5%
J. Knighton run for 1 yd for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:3745% → 40%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
44.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+14
44.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 14 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
45.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 18 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
46.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
46.8%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
46.8%
PICKETT, Kenny sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the MIA37 (FRIERSON, Gilbert). PENALTY MIA Holding on IVEY, DJ enforced 10 yards from the MIA36 to the MIA26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
47.4%
PICKETT, Kenny scrambles to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the MIA19, out of bounds. PENALTY PIT Holding on WARREN, Carter enforced 10 yards from the MIA26 to the MIA36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+2
46.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+3
46.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
41.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for no gain to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+49
40.1%
Sam Scarton 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
34.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0361% → 63%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
38.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
38.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
39.3%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for 10 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+32
37.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 32 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:3540% → 53%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
40.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
39.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 11 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
40.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 2 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
40.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
52.6%
K. Pickett pass,to J. Wayne for 12 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3553% → 56%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
46.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
45.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
44.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
45.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+10
46.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 10 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
43.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:5346% → 69%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
46.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
47.2%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+14
47.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 14 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
49.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 16 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
51.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
69.2%
K. Pickett pass,to J. Barden for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:2839% → 67%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
61.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+4
59.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
60.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 12 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
57.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 17 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 7 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
55.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
32.7%
T. Van Dyke pass,to K. Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:1245% → 48%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
44.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Zach McCloud for 0 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 23
OPP 49
+26
43.7%
Vincent Davis run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
48.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 6 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
44.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-1
42.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+10
39.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.1%
Lucas Krull pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
48.1%
Sam Scarton 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3958% → 57%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.6%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by John Morgan III for 0 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
42.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
43.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for no gain to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
43.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2146% → 43%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
45.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
45.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
43.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 7 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
43.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5561% → 74%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
39.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+22
38.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 22 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
37.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (Damarri Mathis) to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
34.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 5 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
35.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
33.1%
Cody Brown run for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
32.6%
Cody Brown run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-5
34.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
26.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted return for no gain to the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26INT
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5338% → 40%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+19
38.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 19 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 23 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
44.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
41.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+26
44.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 26 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
48.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Deandre Johnson for 0 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 18
OPP 31
0
39.9%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5776% → 83%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
23.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+18
24.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 18 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
17.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
15.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
17.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:15
T. Van Dyke pass,to K. Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (A. Borregales KICK)
-22.4
TD · Q3 5:50
K. Pickett pass,to J. Barden for 19 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)
+18
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com