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UNC

North Carolina 34 at Notre Dame 44

ND
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+5.3ND 93.6%Jonathan Doerer 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 41 · Q4 11:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:52 · Jonathan Doerer 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+23.4Pregame prior+1.8Garbage-time factor+10.6Score differential+10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:23: Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +11.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:21: Ty Chandler run for 53 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +12.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:23: Jack Coan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +15.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:48: Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 33 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +17.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:27: Kyren Williams run for 91 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +19.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:07ND 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:01ND 4th & 6 at UNC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:20UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 27, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:03ND 4th & 8 at ND 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:44UNC 4th & 9 at ND 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:52ND 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:37ND 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:25ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:23ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:21UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:23ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:56ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:48UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:27ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:23UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:2359% → 59%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.2%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
59.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Cain Madden) to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
59.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
59.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
59.5%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
59.6%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-1
59.5%
Jack Coan sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 7
50
0
59.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0141% → 41%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.2%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
58.9%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
59.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
59.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 6 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
58.6%
Sam Howell run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
58.4%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+2
58.5%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
58.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Ty ChandlerSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+47
59.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 47 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:4560% → 65%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
60.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
60.2%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
60.1%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
60.5%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+14
60.6%
Tyler Buchner run for 14 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
60.6%
Jack Coan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
61.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Avery Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:5437% → 44%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
63.0%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
63.1%
D.J. Jones run for 6 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
63.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 19 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
62.4%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
63.2%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-6
63.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Tucker) to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+41
64.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 41 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
62.7%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.9%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:2960% → 63%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
60.6%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
60.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 10 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
61.2%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
50
+20
61.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 20 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
62.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
62.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
61.4%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
62.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
62.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
61.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
62.5%
Jonathan Doerer 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:0337% → 45%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
62.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.3%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
63.3%
Sam Howell run for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
61.9%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+3
63.0%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
63.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 15 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+31
61.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 31 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
59.7%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
59.7%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 6 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus McKethan) to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+5
59.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 5 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
61.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Jayson Ademilola and Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
55.3%
Grayson Atkins 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4760% → 73%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.9%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+30
59.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 30 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
61.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-1
61.9%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+14
61.6%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Styles Jr., Lorenzo, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Morrison, Trey) 14 yards to the UNC21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
73.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:0829% → 37%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
71.2%
D.J. Jones run for 14 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
68.9%
D.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+9
68.3%
D.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
67.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
67.1%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
67.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+26
63.0%
Grayson Atkins 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:0936% → 52%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
63.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+6
62.6%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
63.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+53
48.3%
Ty Chandler run for 53 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4252% → 68%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
51.9%
Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
52.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 40 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
68.0%
Jack Coan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5636% → 33%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
64.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Tucker) to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 15
OWN 13
-1
64.3%
D.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 12Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+6
64.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
67.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 9 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:1468% → 84%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
67.5%
Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
67.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
67.7%
Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
70.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
71.1%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
71.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 25 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
72.3%
Logan Diggs run for 9 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
72.5%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+1
73.9%
Diggs, Logan rush for 1 yard to the UNC2, PENALTY UNC substitution infraction 1 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.7%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.9%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0218% → 38%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.9%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Olson, Justin, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Bertrand, JD) 15 yards to the UNC40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
80.6%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+18
82.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 18 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
80.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
79.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+33
62.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 33 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4570% → 67%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Andrew Kristofic) to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
69.6%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
67.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5135% → 32%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.1%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
63.4%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
62.8%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
62.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
64.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
67.8%
Sam Howell punt for 35 yds, downed at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
86.7%
Kyren Williams run for 91 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Sam Howell pass intercepted for a 1ST down DJ Brown return for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Olson) to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3389% → 94%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
88.5%
Avery Davis run for 12 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
88.5%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.8%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.4%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
93.6%
Jonathan Doerer 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:199% → 21%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
90.2%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
90.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
91.1%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
91.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
91.1%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
91.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
91.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
90.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Drew White for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+31
79.4%
Sam Howell run for 31 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 5:2889% → 97%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
88.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.6%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
91.3%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
50
+20
91.6%
Kyren Williams run for 20 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
93.7%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Kevin Hester Jr.) to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
93.7%
Diggs, Logan rush for loss of 1 yard to the UNC12, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Mayer, Michael) 10 yards to the UNC21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+6
93.6%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
94.5%
Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+8
94.4%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Chapman, Don) 8 yards to the UNC7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
95.8%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
96.0%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
96.5%
Jonathan Doerer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22Uncategorized
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:253% → 4%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
96.3%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
96.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.6%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+23
95.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 23 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-11
95.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 22 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Howell) to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 21
OPP 22
+18
96.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the NDame 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:27
Kyren Williams run for 91 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+19
TD · Q3 2:48
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 33 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 12:23
Jack Coan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com