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BC

Boston College 14 at Louisville 28

LOU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:15 · Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 6 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+19.5Pregame prior+1.8Score differential+8.3Garbage-time factor+6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Time remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:35: Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +6.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:11: Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +9.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:40: Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 39 — LOU win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:10: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +9.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:56: Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST down — LOU win probability +5.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:52BC 4th & 14 at BC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25BC 4th & 8 at BC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:08BC 4th & 6 at BC 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:49BC 4th & 4 at BC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36LOU 4th & 5 at BC 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20BC 4th & 1 at BC 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:19LOU 4th & 24 at BC 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:57BC 4th & 6 at LOU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:07LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:11BC 4th & 4 at BC 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:15BC 4th & 5 at LOU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:10BC 4th & 6 at LOU 6, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:00BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:19LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:35LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:11LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:10BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:53LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4740% → 40%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
59.8%
Zay Flowers run for 1 yd to the BC 23Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+14
59.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 14 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 4 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 41Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Yasir Abdullah for 0 yards to the BC 33Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
60.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2860% → 60%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
59.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
59.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
59.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, downed at the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:5240% → 44%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
59.6%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
59.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 14 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
59.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+15
59.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on GILLOTTE, Ashton enforced (Ashton Gillotte) to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
58.9%
Alec Sinkfield run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+9
58.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 9 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
58.8%
Alec Sinkfield run for 6 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
56.2%
Alec Sinkfield run for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2657% → 61%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
57.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 26 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
57.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
57.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+15
57.3%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the left incomplete intended for WATKINS, Jordan thrown to the BC.15. PENALTY BC. Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the BC.33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
58.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 24 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
57.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
57.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5140% → 40%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.6%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
59.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
60.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:5560% → 61%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
59.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
50
0
60.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
50
+23
60.7%
Hassan Hall run for 23 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
61.3%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5841% → 41%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
59.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
59.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 16 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.0%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
58.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 39Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
58.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+9
59.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
59.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 19 yds, downed at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:4260% → 61%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
60.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
60.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.3%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted return for no gain to the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1241% → 40%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
58.9%
Alec Sinkfield run for no gain to the BC 11Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
59.0%
Alec Sinkfield run for 6 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
59.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 17
-2
60.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 51 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5860% → 69%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
60.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
61.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 14 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
61.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 19 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
62.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 14 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
62.4%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the BC 12Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
62.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11Uncategorized
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:1633% → 30%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
67.1%
Alec Sinkfield run for 7 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-1
67.3%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 20Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-5
68.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 15Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
68.9%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Ryheem Craig for 0 yards to the BC 6Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 6
+15
69.9%
CARLSON, Grant punt 48 yards to the LOU46, WATKINS, Jordan return 44 yards to the BC.10 (DEPALMA, Vinny), out of bounds. PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on BURKLEY, Maurice enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the BC.16 to the BC.31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.1%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted return for no gain to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0032% → 32%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
67.7%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
68.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted return for no gain to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1571% → 83%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
71.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-4
71.7%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 11
50
+6
70.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+9
71.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 9 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
73.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Renato Brown) to the BC 40Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+33
72.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 33 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
73.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4120% → 19%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
80.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
81.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 9 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
80.5%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
81.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
82.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:2482% → 84%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
81.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+19
82.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
83.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 17 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
83.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
84.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
84.5%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-10
84.9%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 20
OPP 30
-15
84.4%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the left complete for -3 yards to WERTS, Shai caught at the BC.33 and advanced to the BC.33 (VALDEZ, Marcus). PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on BROWN, Renato enforced 15 yards from the BC.30 to the BC.45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 35
OPP 45
+11
85.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 11 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 24
OPP 34
+52
84.4%
James Turner 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:1117% → 16%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
83.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 13 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
82.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
82.0%
GROSEL, Dennis pass to the right incomplete intended for GILL, Jaelen thrown to the LOU31; QB hurried by ALDERMAN, Jaylin. PENALTY LOU Holding on JONES, Chandler enforced 10 yards from the LOU49 to the LOU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
82.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
84.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
84.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3388% → 89%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
88.8%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
88.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3812% → 10%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
87.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd to the BC 11Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
88.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+17
89.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 17 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.3%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Dorian Jones and YaYa Diaby for 0 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+12
89.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 12 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+10
89.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 38 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5993% → 93%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.7%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
93.4%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
93.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
93.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22INT
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:438% → 7%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.8%
Alec Sinkfield run for 12 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
91.7%
Alec Sinkfield run for 9 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
91.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
91.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 17 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
91.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
90.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-5
91.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+1
92.7%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+6
93.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 6 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
92.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
93.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+19
93.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Trae Barry for 19 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
92.3%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.5%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted return for no gain to the Lvile 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+28
95.6%
Trevion Cooley run for 28 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:296% → 15%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
93.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 10 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
93.8%
GARWO, Patrick rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the LOU14 (JONES, Dorian). PENALTY Before the snap, LOU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the LOU16 to the LOU11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
93.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 2 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.5%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
95.0%
Travis Levy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 6Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0391% → 99%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
92.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+14
91.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+15
93.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 15 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jaiden Woodbey) to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
94.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
95.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
98.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:082% → 2%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
98.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Trae Barry for 14 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
98.5%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:5899% → 99%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 14 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-1
99.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 27Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
99.4%
run for no gain to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:10
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 1:11
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 8:35
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com