2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:07 · George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for no gain to the FlaSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:31: Jashaun Corbin run for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:00: Treshaun Ward run for 17 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:13: D.J. Williams run for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:53MASS 4th & 12 at FSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call2.2%60% to makePunt1.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:56MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 48, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 4:45FSU 4th & 9 at MASS 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%79% to makePunt96.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:57MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 3:46MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, down 21Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:40MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 38, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 8:49FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 26, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 8:07MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 2:48MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 33, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:11MASS 4th & 4 at FSU 28, down 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%48% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.160% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:51FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 37, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:00MASS 4th & 15 at FSU 22, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.116% to convertField goal0.0%72% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:37FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:31FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:00FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:13FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:02FSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44FSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:53FSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1FG6 plays · -2 yds · 0:481% → 1%
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
99.5%
PENALTY UMA False Start (Fagundes,Helber) 5 yards from FSU23 to FSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:01100% → 99%
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+12
99.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q1 10:41
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+12
99.4%
Brady Olson pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 12 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+1
99.3%
Brady Olson pass complete to Tray Pettway for 1 yd to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
99.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FG8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5999% → 99%
Q1 6:50
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+35
99.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 35 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-4
99.2%
Jordan Travis sacked by Te'Rai Powell for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+7
99.1%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the UMass 18 Jordan Travis fumbled, forced by Gerrell Johnson, recovered by FlaSt Jashaun CorbinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 3:421% → 1%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Zamar Wise for 3 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
99.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Eric Collins for 10 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
98.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 94 yds · 2:1099% → 99%
Q2 14:36
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+51
98.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 51 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7INT9 plays · 71 yds · 3:281% → 2%
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
98.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 33 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
98.8%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
98.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Kevin Knowles II) to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
MASSDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:461% → 1%
FSUDrive 10TD9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2199% → 100%
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+20
99.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 20 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11INT TD4 plays · 12 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
99.8%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:570% → 0%
FSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 9:54
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-15
99.9%
(09:56) Travis,Jordan pass complete to Helton,Keyshawn for 8 yards to the FSU38, out of bounds PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (McClain,Malik) 15 yards from FSU30 to FSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q3 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
FSUDrive 17TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:02100% → 100%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.9%
(04:55) Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete to McClain,Malik PENALTY UMA Pass Interference (Mahoney,Jordan) 15 yards from UMA25 to UMA10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 3:11
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-1
99.9%
Zamar Wise sacked by Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD10 plays · 86 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q3 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+38
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 38 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
(00:18) Douglas,Ja'Khi rush for 2 yards loss to the UMA44 (Logan,Nahji) PENALTY UMA Offside (Wooden,Billy) 5 yards from UMA42 to UMA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+27
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 27 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Young for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 64 yds · 6:380% → 0%
Q4 8:24
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
100.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Rico Arnold for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+14
100.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Eric Collins for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
100.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jared Chisari for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 27 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
100.0%
(03:45) Olson,Brady pass complete to Johnson,Jermaine for 32 yards to the FSU05 (Dix, Jr.,Stephen) PENALTY UMA Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Tray Pettway for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
100.0%
PENALTY UMA False Start (Chisari,Jared) 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
100.0%
(02:29) Olson,Brady pass incomplete to Johnson,Jermaine PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Dix, Jr.,Stephen) 11 yard from FSU42 to FSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
100.0%
Zamar Wise pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-4
100.0%
PENALTY UMA False Start (Tomlison,Dalton) 4 yards from FSU18 to FSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:00
Treshaun Ward run for 17 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 1:13
D.J. Williams run for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:31
Jashaun Corbin run for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+0.3