Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 28 at Virginia Tech 7

VT
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:12 · Peter Moore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−10.9Pregame prior−13.3Score differential−6.0Garbage-time factor−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:52: Kenny Pickett 3 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) — PITT win probability +7.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 36 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +8.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:04: Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 01:04 — PITT win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:33: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +10.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:26: John Parker Romo kickoff for 64 yds , Jaylon Barden return for 23 yds to the Pitt 24 — PITT win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 14:18PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23VT 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:50PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:12VT 4th & 1 at PITT 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:30PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:16VT 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:53VT 4th & 9 at VT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:45PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:42VT 4th & 8 at VT 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:35PITT 4th & 14 at VT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:12VT 4th & 11 at VT 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:04VT 4th & 18 at VT 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:41PITT 4th & 10 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:45VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:26PITT 4th & 1 at VT 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:37PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:53VT 4th & 5 at PITT 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:13PITT 4th & 9 at VT 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:28VT 4th & 8 at VT 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:15PITT 4th & 1 at VT 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:00PITT 4th & 5 at VT 16, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:35PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:52PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:36PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:33VT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2172% → 72%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.6%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
27.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
27.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:18
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
27.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5328% → 28%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
50
0
27.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
50
0
28.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 10
50
0
28.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 10
50
0
28.2%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds, downed at the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 5:3572% → 72%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
28.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+8
28.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
28.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 18 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
28.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
29.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 10 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
29.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
29.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 11 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
29.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
29.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
29.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
29.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 3 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
30.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 14 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
29.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
27.6%
Gavin Bartholomew 8 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:0229% → 30%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
28.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 1 yd to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
28.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+11
28.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
28.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 29 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
29.7%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
29.9%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
29.9%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
29.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3072% → 71%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
28.4%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
28.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
28.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+17
29.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 33 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 17 yds to the VTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1430% → 29%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
29.8%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+4
29.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 7
50
+8
29.0%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 8 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4571% → 70%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
28.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
28.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
28.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+7
28.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
28.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-15
28.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Tripping (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+3
29.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
29.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1330% → 29%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
29.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
30.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
29.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 4
OWN 36
-5
29.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
28.7%
Peter Moore punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0872% → 71%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
28.4%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for no gain to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
28.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
29.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain to the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4730% → 28%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
29.6%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
29.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
28.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+42
28.3%
Peter Moore punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 44 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5672% → 71%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
27.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+18
27.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 18 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
27.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
27.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-6
26.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
28.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0429% → 29%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
28.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted Erick Hallett return for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1874% → 80%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.2%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
26.3%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+28
27.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 28 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.0%
Kenny Pickett 3 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:2421% → 21%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
21.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 14 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
21.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
21.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
21.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 8 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
22.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
21.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+3
20.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
20.8%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:1380% → 91%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
20.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 22 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
19.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
18.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+17
18.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 17 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
8.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 36 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:2513% → 13%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
13.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
13.0%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
12.7%
Peter Moore punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1792% → 91%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
50
0
8.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
50
0
8.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
50
0
8.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 10
50
0
8.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1313% → 13%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
12.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-9
13.0%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0112% → 12%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.3%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
12.2%
Tayvion Robinson run for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
12.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+14
11.8%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 14 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0992% → 98%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
8.4%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
8.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+12
7.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 12 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
6.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-4
6.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
6.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
6.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
6.1%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
5.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.4%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:153% → 13%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
2.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 47 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
3.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
3.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
2.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
2.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-4
2.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+6
2.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4296% → 96%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
4.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
4.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
4.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
4.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:366% → 6%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
5.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 17 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
6.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 12 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
6.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
5.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
5.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
5.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2797% → 97%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
3.4%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
3.3%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+14
3.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 14 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
3.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
2.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-5
2.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+5
2.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
2.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:324% → 3%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
3.7%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+13
3.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 13 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
3.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
3.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
3.1%
Peter Moore punt for 57 yds, downed at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 76 yds · 11:1798% → 100%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
2.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-4 Yards) to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+10
2.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 10 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
2.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+12
2.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
2.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
1.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 17 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
1.6%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
1.5%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
1.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
1.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
1.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-2
1.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+11
0.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
0.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
0.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+2
0.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+7
0.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
0.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
0.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
0.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+12
0.7%
Malachi Thomas run for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
0.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 6 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:33
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 1:36
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 36 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 5:52
Kenny Pickett 3 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com