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DUKE

Duke 0 at Virginia 48

UVA
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:40 · Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+23.5Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:37: Matt Alswanger 25 yd FG MISSED — DUKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:43: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 20 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK) — DUKE win probability +1.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:52: Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK) — DUKE win probability +1.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:04: Brendan Farrell 34 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +1.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:01: Brendan Farrell kickoff for 35 yds , Grissim Anderson return for 8 yds to the Duke 43 VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (T.C. Harrison) to the Duke 43 — DUKE win probability +3.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:05UVA 4th & 2 at DUKE 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:40DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:05DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:04UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:33DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.5%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:09DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:08UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:06DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:47UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−3.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 19, tied
    Close callWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:57DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.0%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:34DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−5.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07DUKE 4th & 7 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−4.8
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5580% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 22 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+25
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 25 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
80.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
80.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
79.6%
Brendan Farrell 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:2821% → 23%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
79.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
79.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
79.4%
PENALTY DUK False Start (Barton,Graham) 5 yards from DUK42 to DUK37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+3
79.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+16
79.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 16 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
79.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+10
79.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 10 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+24
79.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 24 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
79.2%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
79.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
79.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
77.3%
Matt Alswanger 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5478% → 77%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
77.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
77.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
78.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
50
+18
78.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 18 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
78.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 36 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by Virg Malachi Fields , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+5
78.1%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Wicks,Dontayvion broken up by Blackwell,Josh PENALTY DUK Offside (Oben,R.J.) 5 yards from DUK36 to DUK31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+16
78.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 16 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
78.5%
PENALTY UVA Offside (Glaser,Chris) 5 yards from DUK15 to DUK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
78.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
78.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+20
76.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 20 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0324% → 24%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
76.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
76.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+22
76.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 22 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.7%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
76.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
75.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:1176% → 77%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
76.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
76.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
76.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-3
76.6%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Gary Smith III for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+15
75.1%
Finn,Jacob punt 54 yards to the DUK00, Touchback PENALTY DUK Personal Foul (Harding Jr.,Darrell) 15 yards from UVA46 to DUK39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
76.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
77.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2426% → 25%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
74.0%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
74.2%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+3
74.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
74.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
74.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1375% → 75%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.9%
Devin Darrington run for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
75.8%
Devin Darrington run for 12 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
76.0%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Oluwatimi,Olusegun) 5 yards from DUK48 to UVA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+16
75.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 16 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
76.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
76.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 13 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
76.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 17 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4229% → 30%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
70.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
70.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
70.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0673% → 72%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
73.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+25
74.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 25 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
75.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
75.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 11 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
75.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 36 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by Virg Grant Misch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+5
74.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+15
73.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 15 yds Dontayvion Wicks fumbled, forced by Dominique Long, recovered by Virg Dontayvion Wicks for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
74.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete pass complete to for 4 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
74.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
73.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
71.6%
Brendan Farrell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10INT
12 plays · 24 yds · 1:1432% → 34%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
67.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
68.2%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
69.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
68.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
69.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 13 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:4574% → 75%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
73.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 21 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
75.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
75.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 13 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 7 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5132% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
66.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
67.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 4 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
67.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
68.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0169% → 67%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
69.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr.Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
68.9%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Wicks,Dontayvion, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Lewis,Jeremiah) 11 yard from UVA12 to UVA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
69.3%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
68.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+2
67.1%
Jacob Finn punt for 52 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 2 yds to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0234% → 32%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
66.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 7 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+10
66.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 10 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-6
67.3%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
68.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 45 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1969% → 68%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
69.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
70.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 7 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
71.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
69.2%
PENALTY UVA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting DUK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
68.4%
Jacob Finn punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:4036% → 39%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
62.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
63.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
61.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+18
60.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 18 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
59.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
58.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
58.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+1
60.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 5
OPP 19
0
60.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Cole FinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:5665% → 70%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
65.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 23 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
68.3%
Armstrong,Brennan pass complete to Kemp,Billy for 5 yards to the UVA47 (Stinson,Jaylen) PENALTY UVA Illegal Formation 5 yards from UVA42 to UVA37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 15
OWN 37
-5
65.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Henry,Ra'Shaun) 5 yards from UVA37 to UVA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
65.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+27
65.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 27 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+34
69.6%
Devin Darrington run for 34 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.0%
Devin Darrington run for 7 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:1140% → 40%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
60.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds Jalon Calhoun fumbled, forced by Josh Ahern, recovered by Virg Antonio ClarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5269% → 70%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
68.9%
Jay Woolfolk run for 14 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
70.1%
Jay Woolfolk run for 12 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
70.1%
Woolfolk,Jay pass incomplete to Fields,Malachi, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Alexander,Jalen) 15 yards from DUK21 to DUK06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
70.1%
Jay Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:2341% → 42%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
59.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
58.3%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
60.4%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.2%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
56.4%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
57.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
57.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Antonio Clary at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3362% → 58%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
61.7%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
61.5%
Iraken Armstead run for 7 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 15
OWN 6
+7
58.9%
Iraken Armstead run for 7 yds to the Virg 13 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+3
57.5%
Jacob Finn punt for 57 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:5445% → 47%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
55.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+15
52.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jarett Garner for 15 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
51.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
51.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 10 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
49.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Malik Bowen-SimsSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
52.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
52.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1961% → 62%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
61.2%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
61.2%
Jay Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+4
62.0%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 4 yds to the Virg 43 Jacob Rodriguez fumbled, forced by Colby Campbell, recovered by Duke Brandon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FUMBLE
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:0552% → 61%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
47.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
45.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
45.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
45.2%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
45.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
45.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jarett Garner for 14 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.2%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.5%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:4355% → 51%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
55.4%
Iraken Armstead run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
54.5%
Jay Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-1
51.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+48.6
TD · Q2 0:01
Brendan Farrell kickoff for 35 yds , Grissim Anderson return for 8 yds to the Duke 43 VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (T.C. Harrison) to the Duke 43
-3.5
FG · Q1 6:37
Matt Alswanger 25 yd FG MISSED
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com