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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:22 · B.T. Potter 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:33: Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +11.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Kobe Pace run for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:18: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 62 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +23.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:43: Timeout SYRACUSE, clock 00:43 — CLEM win probability +7.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:34: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29 — CLEM win probability +22.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 10 of 10CLEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 10:50SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:21SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.3%average punt
- Q1 5:54CLEM 4th & 18 at CLEM 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.1%average punt
- Q1 5:01SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q1 1:47CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.0%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q2 3:32CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.5%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q2 2:07SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snapGo for it33.4%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q2 1:04CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.3%42% to convertField goal66.9%−0.532% to makePunt66.5%−0.8average punt
- Q3 11:58CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it74.0%−2.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.7%average punt
- Q3 8:14SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it25.1%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q3 5:24CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snapGo for it75.1%−1.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.5%average punt
- Q3 3:09SYR 4th & 15 at CLEM 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it23.9%−2.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q3 0:11CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snapGo for it73.5%−2.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.7%average punt
- Q4 14:50SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snapGo for it22.1%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q4 11:53SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it19.1%−3.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q4 9:22CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call81.4%70% to makePunt72.6%−8.8average punt
- Q4 4:40CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.5%−2.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%average punt
- Q4 2:12SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.4%36% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt20.7%−2.7average punt
- Q4 0:38SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snapGo for it33.1%−0.871% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%56% to makePunt13.8%−20.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 9:06CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.1%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:33SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.2%97% to makeGo for two31.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%97% to makeGo for two73.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:18SYR Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call28.6%−0.297% to makeGo for two28.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT15 plays · 27 yds · 6:1620% → 23%
Q1 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
20.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 3 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
20.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
21.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Chris Elmore for 10 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
22.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 5 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 16
OWN 47
-5
22.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Abdul Adams for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 42Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
23.0%
James Williams punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2177% → 75%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
23.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 9 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
23.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-6
24.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Cody Roscoe for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+4
24.9%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 4 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4225% → 25%
Q1 5:01
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
24.6%
James Williams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0375% → 73%
SYRDrive 5INT3 plays · 54 yds · 0:3427% → 30%
CLEMDrive 6TD17 plays · 87 yds · 6:4873% → 77%
Q2 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+15
27.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 7
50
+8
28.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 8 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
27.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 46Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+15
29.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 15 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
27.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+19
22.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7TD12 plays · 91 yds · 3:1625% → 39%
Q2 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
24.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 8 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
24.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 11 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+14
24.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 14 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
26.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Clem 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4768% → 66%
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
32.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 9 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1337% → 36%
Q2 2:07
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
36.0%
James Williams punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD16 plays · 58 yds · 1:4568% → 80%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
32.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 5 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
31.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
30.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
30.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 3 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+17
32.1%
Will Spiers pass complete to Davis Allen for 17 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
30.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 11 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
29.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 6 yds to the Syrac 7Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+15
30.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 15 yds to the Syrac 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5677% → 76%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 27
OWN 34
+11
23.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 11 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+9
24.5%
Will Spiers punt for 45 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 9 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 3:3125% → 25%
Q3 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+15
23.6%
CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
24.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 7 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
27.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by James Skalski for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 42Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
26.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 4 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+37
24.9%
James Williams punt for 37 yds , Will Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3977% → 76%
Q3 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-5
21.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Stefon Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0228% → 25%
CLEMDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4977% → 75%
SYRDrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1027% → 23%
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OWN 45
-5
23.1%
James Williams punt for 37 yds , Will Brown returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 13 Will Brown fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3379% → 79%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.6%
Will Spiers punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0425% → 21%
Q4 11:53
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+6
21.3%
James Williams punt for 48 yds , Will Brown returns for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20FG7 plays · 46 yds · 2:1880% → 87%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
19.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 13 yds to the Clem 44 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 34Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 7
OWN 34
+23
19.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 23 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5214% → 37%
CLEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3071% → 72%
SYRDrive 23MISSED FG19 plays · 63 yds · 3:5235% → 29%
Q4 3:42
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+17
34.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 17 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+5
32.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 5 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+17
30.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
28.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:18
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 62 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+23
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:34
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29
-22.5
TD · Q2 5:33
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+11.8