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Notre Dame 32 at Virginia Tech 29

VT
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:28 · Peter Moore punt for 64 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+3.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+0.5Blowout margin−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:27: Kyren Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +18.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:50: Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Waller return for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — VT win probability +27.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 3:55: Braxton Burmeister run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +21.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:26: Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Coan pass to Kevin Austin Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +43.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:17: Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +38.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:57ND 4th & 19 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33VT 4th & 11 at VT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15ND 4th & 6 at VT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52ND 4th & 11 at ND 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35VT 4th & 1 at ND 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:16VT 4th & 18 at VT 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:26ND 4th & 4 at ND 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:35VT 4th & 8 at VT 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53VT 4th & 3 at ND 8, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−11.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18ND 4th & 4 at ND 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:48VT 4th & 5 at VT 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:16ND 4th & 12 at ND 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−5.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:28VT 4th & 9 at VT 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56VT 4th & 1 at VT 27, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.9 ptsPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−9.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:17ND 4th & 1 at VT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−2.7
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−15.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:21VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:51ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:32ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:27ND Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:50VT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:55VT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:26ND Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4849% → 49%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.6%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
50.7%
Coan, Jack pass complete to Williams, Kyren for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME33, PENALTY NOTREDAME ineligible downfield on pass (Takacs, George) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
50.8%
Jack Coan run for 1 yd to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
51.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+3
51.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5751% → 51%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
51.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 1 yd to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
51.3%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
51.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
51.0%
Peter Moore punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5549% → 49%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
51.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
51.2%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
51.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
51.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.0%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
50.9%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
50.9%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
51.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
51.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2952% → 58%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
51.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for 15 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
52.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+16
52.7%
Connor Blumrick run for 16 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
53.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 18 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
53.5%
Burmeister, Braxton pass incomplete to Robinson, Tayvion, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Hart, Cam) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
53.5%
Connor Blumrick run for 2 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
53.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
57.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0343% → 42%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.8%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.8%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
57.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Josh Fuga for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
58.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 12 yds to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 5:5559% → 62%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
58.6%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
58.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kurt Hinish) to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
59.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the VTech 45 Braxton Burmeister fumbled, recovered by VTech Braxton BurmeisterSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
59.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
60.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+11
60.4%
Tre Turner run for 11 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Keshawn KingSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
61.0%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+10
60.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 10 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
61.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+15
62.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 15 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.4%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Jaden PayouteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
62.3%
John Parker Romo 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3438% → 47%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.4%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
62.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 8 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
62.2%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
62.5%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+46
62.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 46 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
61.7%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2257% → 55%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
57.2%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-10
56.9%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
55.3%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2443% → 42%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
56.9%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
55.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
56.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
58.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 55 yds, downed at the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1557% → 56%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
57.4%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+18
57.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 18 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
57.9%
Tre Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
57.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
56.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
56.0%
Peter Moore punt for 49 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 0:5742% → 60%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
57.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+37
58.0%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Avery Davis for 37 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.1%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
55.2%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kyren Williams for 2 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
55.4%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY VATECH holding (Daley, Tae) 10 yards to the VATECH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
53.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+8
55.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kyren Williams for 8 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
55.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
55.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 10 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.8%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kyren Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:2247% → 57%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
47.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
47.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 10 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
48.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 23 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
51.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+52
57.4%
John Parker Romo 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:2752% → 61%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.7%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
51.5%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+25
50.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 25 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
54.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
55.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 10 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
56.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
56.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
56.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
56.7%
Burmeister, Braxton pass complete to Robinson, Tayvion for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY VATECH ineligible downfield on pass (Smith, Lecitus) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
56.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+10
54.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 10 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
60.8%
John Parker Romo 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0242% → 39%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.5%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
58.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
60.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, downed at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5060% → 58%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
59.5%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
58.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted TaRiq Bracy return for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2847% → 66%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
53.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 11 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
52.8%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
52.4%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
33.6%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2840% → 39%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
39.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 9 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
41.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
41.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
39.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
38.7%
Peter Moore punt for 52 yds, downed at the NDame 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18INT TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2563% → 32%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
36.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+4
35.7%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
34.6%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
34.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-26
61.9%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Waller return for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
68.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Nick Gallo) to the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5940% → 36%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.0%
Tyler Buchner run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-13
57.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 35 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (Mitchell Evans) to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
60.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
62.3%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
63.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2762% → 59%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
64.1%
Connor Blumrick run for 1 yd to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-3
62.1%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
59.1%
Peter Moore punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:2140% → 40%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
59.8%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
58.8%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+10
56.1%
Logan Diggs run for 10 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
55.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 8 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+7
53.8%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
54.5%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
52.7%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-15
55.7%
Williams, Kyren rush for no gain to the VATECH32, PENALTY NOTREDAME clipping (Kristofic, Andrew) 15 yards to the VATECH47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 21
OPP 47
-14
59.6%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted Nasir Peoples return for 14 yds to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1569% → 95%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
68.8%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Tre Turner for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 4
50
-5
70.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Tre Turner) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
65.4%
Connor Blumrick run for 10 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
70.8%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
71.0%
Connor Blumrick run for no gain to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+27
70.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 13 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Roughing Passer (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
72.9%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-3
73.0%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+19
94.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2410% → 57%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 5 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Dax Hollifield) to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
88.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 15 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+23
87.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 23 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
86.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 11 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.6%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Coan pass to Kevin Austin Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2257% → 56%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
57.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
56.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
53.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 9 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Peter Moore punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:3248% → 94%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
51.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 20 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
46.2%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
46.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to George Takacs for 15 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
42.0%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
39.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
41.5%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+48
6.0%
Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0616% → 15%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
15.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
15.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for a loss of 2 yards Nick Gallo fumbled, recovered by NDame Isaiah FoskeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:26
Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Coan pass to Kevin Austin Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-43.7
FG · Q4 0:17
Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD
-38.3
TD · Q3 0:50
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Jermaine Waller return for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com