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UVA

Virginia 34 at Louisville 33

LOU
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+5.7LOU 74.8%James Turner 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 20 · Q3 7:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:54 · James Turner 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense+10.3Garbage-time factor+4.0Score differential+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Pregame prior+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:47: Hassan Hall run for 52 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +14.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:02: Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TD — LOU win probability +9.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:40: Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +14.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:49: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 3 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +23.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 1 yd for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +68.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:43UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:09LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:34LOU 4th & 8 at UVA 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:37UVA 4th & 4 at LOU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:24LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57UVA 4th & 11 at LOU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:54LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−9.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:46UVA 4th & 28 at UVA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:29LOU 4th & 3 at UVA 20, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:33LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:26LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:22LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−17.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:39UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:33UVA 4th & 8 at LOU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−6.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:33UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:14LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:47LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:40UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:49UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:22UVA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−10.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:0646% → 47%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
53.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Yasir Abdullah for 0 yards to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-1
53.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+30
54.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 30 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
53.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 14 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
53.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+19
54.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yasir Abdullah) to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 11
OWN 8
+92
54.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 92 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2646% → 46%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
54.3%
Mike Hollins run for 7 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+33
54.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 33 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
53.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-5
53.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
54.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+1
54.2%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
54.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
54.5%
MITCHELL, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the LOU15 (CROSS, De'Vante). PENALTY LOU Holding on GONZALEZ, Michael enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the LOU12 to the LOU6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5455% → 54%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 16
OWN 6
-3
54.5%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 19
OWN 3
+2
54.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 17
OWN 5
+16
54.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 16 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+12
53.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 56 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 12 yds to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3946% → 46%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
54.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
53.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+34
53.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 34 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
53.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 11 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
53.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
53.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
53.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
53.6%
Brendan Farrell 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0653% → 56%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
53.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 22 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
50
+3
54.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+1
54.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+10
53.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Hayes) to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
55.3%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
55.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
54.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
55.8%
James Turner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:3546% → 48%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
53.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
54.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 6 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
53.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+51
53.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 51 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
52.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 1 yd to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wayne Taulapapa) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.8%
Brendan Farrell 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1353% → 51%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
52.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
52.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-39
51.4%
Mark Vassett punt for a loss of 2 yards , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 39 yards to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4048% → 47%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
51.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 15 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
50.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
50.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
51.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jack Fagot for 0 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
53.0%
Jacob Finn punt for 30 yds, downed at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10Uncategorized
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0052% → 56%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
52.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
52.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
52.6%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for MARSHALL, Justin thrown to the LOU43. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Anthony enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the LOU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
54.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
53.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
54.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 8 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
54.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
55.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 28 yds · 3:3051% → 52%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
49.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
50.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+13
51.0%
ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass up the middle incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Keytaon broken up by VANCE, Greedy at the UVA43. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on VANCE, Greedy enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the UVA46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
48.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+9
49.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 9 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
48.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
47.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
43.4%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
44.6%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-10
46.8%
TAULAPAPA, Wayne rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the LOU24 (FAGOT, Jack). PENALTY UVA Holding on HASKINS, Bobby enforced 10 yards from the LOU28 to the LOU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+20
48.3%
Brendan Farrell 45 yd FG MISSED , return for 20 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:5750% → 55%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.1%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
50.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 25 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
52.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
51.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
53.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
51.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
54.6%
James Turner 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5850% → 65%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
50.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
50.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
50.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
64.6%
Hassan Hall run for 52 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3738% → 37%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
60.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
63.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 12 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
63.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted return for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0270% → 75%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
69.5%
Hassan Hall run for 10 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
69.7%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-1
70.0%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
69.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
74.8%
James Turner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 1:4730% → 26%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
69.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.1%
QB Keeper ARMSTRONG, Brennan rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the UVA37 (JONES, Chandler), out of bounds. PENALTY UVA Holding on HASKINS, Bobby enforced 10 yards from the UVA25 to the UVA15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
72.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tabarius Peterson for 0 yards to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
73.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 29 yds, downed at the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:3078% → 88%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
78.2%
Hassan Hall run for 11 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
78.6%
Hassan Hall run for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+15
78.8%
Hassan Hall run for 15 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3314% → 13%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ramon Puryear and C.J. Avery for 0 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
87.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted return for no gain to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3790% → 93%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
89.7%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
91.5%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+1
91.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
92.9%
James Turner 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:368% → 21%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Billy Kemp IV run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 20 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
92.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
93.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 15 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
93.3%
Devin Darrington run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+22
93.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 22 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5985% → 84%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:3716% → 39%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
84.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
85.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 18 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
82.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 34 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
82.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
83.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
83.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Lvile 6Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
84.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Malachi Fields) to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
84.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 3 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0472% → 70%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
73.9%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
73.8%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
71.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+36
70.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Motion (Tyler Harrell) to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2633% → 28%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
67.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Josh Clifford for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Mason Reiger for 0 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
70.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 1:2379% → 94%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
78.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+53
80.8%
Hassan Hall run for 53 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
88.2%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-1
89.8%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+5
88.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
94.1%
James Turner 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:4110% → 88%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+17
90.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 17 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
87.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 17 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
85.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-26
80.8%
QB Keeper ARMSTRONG, Brennan rush to the left for a gain of 26 yards to the LOU30 (JONES, Chandler;COLE, Qwynnterrio), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY LOU Holding on VANCE, Greedy UVA Holding on KEMP, Billy , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
78.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
84.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-5
87.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Keytaon Thompson) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+16
88.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.0%
pass complete to for 19 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 1 yd for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27MISSED FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:1633% → 37%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
32.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 17 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
32.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
33.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 12 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+49
36.7%
James Turner 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:22
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 1 yd for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)
-68.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-36.7
TD · Q4 7:49
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 3 yds for a TD (Brendan Farrell KICK)
-23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com