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Georgia Tech 31 at Duke 27

DUKE
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:42 · David Shanahan punt for 19 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior−8.2Home team on offense−3.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:40: Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:30: Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 18 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +20.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:33: Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:06: Charlie Ham 22 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +14.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:51: Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 36 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +71.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 12GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:30DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:55DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−1.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25GT 4th & 8 at GT 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:42GT 4th & 5 at DUKE 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42GT 4th & 10 at GT 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:49DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 25, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−1.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−6.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:49GT 4th & 5 at GT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10DUKE 4th & 2 at GT 17, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−1.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:29DUKE 4th & 6 at GT 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:50GT 4th & 1 at GT 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:33DUKE 4th & 2 at GT 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−1.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−15.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:58GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:58DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−8.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−10.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06DUKE 4th & 4 at GT 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−26.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:33GT 4th & 19 at GT 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:42DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:23GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:53GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:31DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:40DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:30GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:51GT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
36.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
36.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
37.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:0763% → 63%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
37.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
37.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 3 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+77
36.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 77 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:0237% → 36%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
36.6%
(12:17) Durant,Mataeo rush for 14 yards gain to the DU50 (Walker,Wesley), out of bounds PENALTY DU Holding (Marwede,Jake) 10 yards from DU36 to DU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+3
36.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+10
36.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 10 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
36.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre Swilling at the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2863% → 67%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
36.7%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+13
36.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 13 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
36.3%
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
36.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
36.2%
Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+39
36.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 39 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.3%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.9%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:1634% → 37%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
33.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
34.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
33.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+9
33.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
34.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
34.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
34.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 7 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
34.4%
PENALTY GT Offside (Domineck,Jordan) 5 yards from GT42 to GT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+37
36.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 37 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1265% → 65%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.5%
Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
35.4%
Jeff Sims run for 3 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
35.3%
Jeff Sims pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2438% → 37%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
37.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
37.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
37.2%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
36.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3065% → 64%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.3%
Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
35.3%
Jordan Mason run for no gain to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
35.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Peje' Harris for no gain to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+6
36.1%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4335% → 34%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
34.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
34.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-1
34.2%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+35
33.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 49 , Azende Rey returns for 35 yds to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:0067% → 68%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
33.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Leonard Johnson) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
32.9%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
33.1%
PENALTY DU Offside (Rorie,Christian) 5 yards from DU28 to DU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
32.9%
Jeff Sims run for 10 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
32.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
32.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
33.0%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
31.7%
Brent Cimaglia 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 3:5631% → 44%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
31.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 14 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
32.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
32.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 6
50
+18
32.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 18 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
33.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
33.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
33.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the GTech 13Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
33.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the GTech 10Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
32.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
33.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the GTech 3Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
33.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
43.8%
PENALTY DU False Start (McIntyre,Maurice) 5 yards from GT03 to GT08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
43.8%
Ham,Charlie kick attempt failed PENALTY GT Offside (Scott,Makius) 4 yards from GT08 to GT04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5261% → 60%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
38.8%
Dontae Smith run for 17 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.4%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Dontae SmithSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
37.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
40.1%
David Shanahan punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5342% → 40%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
42.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
42.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
41.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
40.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4361% → 62%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
39.2%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
39.5%
PENALTY GT False Start (Ward,Billy) 5 yards from GT10 to GT05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+17
39.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 17 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
39.0%
Jeff Sims run for no gain to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
39.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+10
39.2%
Sims,Jeff pass complete to McGowan,Kyric for 7 yards to the GT36, End Of Play PENALTY DU Holding (Lewis,Jeremiah) 10 yards from GT29 to GT39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
37.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kalani Norris for 25 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
36.5%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
36.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
38.0%
Jeff Sims pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1745% → 50%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
44.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
44.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 8 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
43.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
49.7%
Charlie Ham 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:4956% → 57%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
43.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0656% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
43.8%
Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
42.7%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.0%
Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
41.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+12
45.2%
David Shanahan punt for 43 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 12 yds to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:3949% → 51%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.5%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
48.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+11
46.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
49.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
51.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 29 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
53.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
53.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
52.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 17Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
50.8%
Charlie Ham 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4055% → 76%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.4%
Jeff Sims run for 9 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
43.2%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
42.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the GTech 42Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
43.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+39
44.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 39 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
24.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 18 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:5130% → 34%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
30.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
32.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 17 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
34.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the GTech 44Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+15
28.3%
(04:31) Holmberg,Gunnar sacked for loss of 2 yards to the GT46 (Domineck,Jordan) PENALTY GT Face Mask (Domineck,Jordan) 15 yards from GT44 to GT29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
31.1%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+13
30.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
31.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
31.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the GTech 13Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
29.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
33.7%
Charlie Ham 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3968% → 67%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.2%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
31.1%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
31.8%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+56
33.3%
David Shanahan punt for 56 yds Brandon Johnson return for 20 yds to the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1731% → 52%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
30.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 36 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
35.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
35.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
34.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
37.4%
Jalon Calhoun run for 7 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+7
37.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
37.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the GTech 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
37.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
35.2%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the GTech 7Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
51.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3553% → 51%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.1%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
46.2%
Jordan Mason run for no gain to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
48.6%
David Shanahan punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:5250% → 70%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
50.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
49.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+7
48.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.0%
PENALTY GT Offside (Kennard,Kyle) 5 yards from DU32 to DU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+19
54.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 19 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
56.4%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
55.3%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
54.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
52.8%
Jontavis Robertson run for 4 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
57.7%
Holmberg,Gunnar pass incomplete to Pancol,Eli broken up by Swilling,Tre PENALTY GT Pass Interference (Swilling,Tre) 15 yards from GT31 to GT16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
57.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 19 Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Charlie Thomas, recovered by Duke Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+3
56.9%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+12
55.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the GTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.6%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the GTech 8Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
57.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the GTech 4Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
69.7%
Charlie Ham 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:3036% → 31%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
62.4%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Billy WardSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
65.3%
Jeff Sims sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
67.5%
PENALTY GT False Start (Johnson,Kenan) 5 yards from GT21 to GT16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
68.6%
David Shanahan punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 1:5178% → 85%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
78.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 2
50
+3
79.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
79.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-10
87.3%
(02:07) Durant,Mataeo rush for 7 yards gain to the GT35 (King,Jaylon; Eley,Ayinde) PENALTY DU Holding (Marwede,Jake) 10 yards from GT42 to DU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
85.3%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+1
85.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
85.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 0:5115% → 95%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
85.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 2 yds Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled, forced by DeWayne Carter, recovered by GTechSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
85.3%
Jeff Sims run for 9 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+37
84.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 37 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
78.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
76.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
4.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 36 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:3620% → 21%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
22.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+26
17.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 26 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
20.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
4.5%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 36 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-71.7
TD · Q3 6:30
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 18 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-20
TD · Q4 12:33
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com