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DUKE

Duke 7 at North Carolina 38

UNC
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:08 · Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds , Josh Downs returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+25.9Home team on offense+15.7Score differential+10.6Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:07: Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:25: Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for loss of 3 yards to the UNC 43. Fumbled by Gunnar Holmberg recovered by Trey Morrison at the UNC 37. Trey Morrison 63 Yd Fumble Return (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +2.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:03: Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:40: Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 80 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +3.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:11: Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs — UNC win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:12UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59DUKE 4th & 17 at UNC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36DUKE 4th & 9 at UNC 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:48DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:55UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:25DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:08DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:55DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:28UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:01DUKE 4th & 14 at UNC 38, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:19UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 48, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:44UNC 4th & 22 at UNC 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:27DUKE 4th & 2 at UNC 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:05UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:53DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:53DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:20DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 16, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:07UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:25UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:03UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:40DUKE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:51UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:04UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3390% → 89%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
89.9%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+26
89.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 26 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
89.6%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+1
89.5%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-5
89.5%
Sam Howell sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:1311% → 12%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+37
89.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 37 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
88.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
88.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
88.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
88.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
88.3%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+2
88.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-5
88.5%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jalon Calhoun) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+3
88.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3288% → 87%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
87.7%
D.J. Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+15
87.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
87.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+7
87.0%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+9
86.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 9 yds to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5113% → 15%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
86.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
86.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+18
86.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 18 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
86.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+8
85.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
85.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-5
85.5%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jacob Monk) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+8
85.4%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
85.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:1886% → 87%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
85.5%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+5
85.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+75
87.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:3613% → 11%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
87.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+20
87.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 20 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
86.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+63
88.9%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for loss of 3 yards to the UNC 43. Fumbled by Gunnar Holmberg recovered by Trey Morrison at the UNC 37. Trey Morrison 63 Yd Fumble Return (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3711% → 10%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
89.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
89.2%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Tomari Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds , Josh Downs returns for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5390% → 90%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
90.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
90.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-3
90.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
90.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, downed at the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3010% → 10%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
89.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
89.6%
Holmberg, Gunnar pass incomplete to Bobo, Jake, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Grimes, Tony) 4 yards to the DUKE14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
89.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
89.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+1
89.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Josh Downs returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1690% → 96%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+12
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 12 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
90.1%
Ty Chandler run for 18 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+32
90.2%
Sam Howell run for 32 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:476% → 5%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
94.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 21 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
94.3%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
94.4%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+1
94.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+17
95.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds , Josh Downs returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3796% → 97%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
96.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
96.4%
D.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+7
96.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 7 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
96.5%
D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
96.5%
D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
96.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to D.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
96.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
96.5%
Grayson Atkins 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:294% → 4%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
95.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
95.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 56 yds , Josh Downs returns for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2397% → 96%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
96.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Ty ChandlerSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
96.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
96.8%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+22
96.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 22 yds to the NCaro 49 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Cameron Roseman-Sinclair) to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:235% → 4%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
94.8%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 16
OPP 40
0
95.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+2
95.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 14
OPP 38
+22
95.9%
Charlie Ham 56 yd FG RETURNED , Trey Morrison return for 22 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
92.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 80 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
93.0%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
93.3%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.2%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
93.3%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
93.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.3%
Jordan Moore run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
93.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass intercepted Cam'Ron Kelly return for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2795% → 94%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
94.9%
D.J. Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-10
94.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 22
OWN 43
+5
94.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 5 yds to the Duke 21 DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominique Long) to the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:176% → 6%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
93.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
93.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
93.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
93.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 12 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
94.0%
Holmberg, Gunnar pass incomplete to Garner, Jarett, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Brown, Khafre) 15 yards to the UNC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
93.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
94.0%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
94.2%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1696% → 96%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
95.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
95.7%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
95.9%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Brown, Khafre, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Blackwell, Josh) 15 yards to the DUKE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
96.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-6
96.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Ben Frye for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-11
96.1%
Sam Howell sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 19
OWN 46
+14
95.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Scott Boylan returns for 14 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:125% → 4%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
95.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+19
95.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
95.5%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-1
95.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
95.7%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
95.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:5196% → 99%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
96.4%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
96.7%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+11
96.7%
D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
97.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 36 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
97.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
97.3%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
97.3%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.1%
Ty Chandler run for 14 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.1%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 61 yds , Josh Downs muffs punt, recovered by NCaro Josh Downs , return for 21 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
99.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+8
99.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.5%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+63
99.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jordan Moore run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
99.9%
Jordan Moore sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds, downed at the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Elijah Green run for 9 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Elijah Green run for 6 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 45 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
100.0%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:03
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q3 14:40
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 80 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 13:25
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for loss of 3 yards to the UNC 43. Fumbled by Gunnar Holmberg recovered by Trey Morrison at the UNC 37. Trey Morrison 63 Yd Fumble Return (Grayson Atkins Kick)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com