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PITT

Pittsburgh 52 at Georgia Tech 21

GT
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:39 · Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−41.3Score differential−31.1Garbage-time factor−11.9Pregame prior−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:06: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +4.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:17: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 55 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +9.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:22: Dontae Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +5.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:14: Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +12.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:10: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:44PITT 4th & 8 at GT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:41PITT 4th & 8 at GT 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39GT 4th & 5 at GT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:23GT 4th & 8 at GT 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:32GT 4th & 4 at GT 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:22PITT 4th & 4 at GT 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49GT 4th & 2 at GT 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:38GT 4th & 4 at PITT 4, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:28GT 4th & 23 at PITT 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:39GT 4th & 1 at PITT 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:35PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:11GT 4th & 4 at GT 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 1 at GT 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:15PITT 4th & 15 at GT 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:03GT 4th & 1 at PITT 21, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:57PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:16PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:14GT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:06PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:17PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:22GT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:14PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:10PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:39PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:58GT Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1661% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.6%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
38.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
38.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
39.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2INT
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:3339% → 40%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
39.4%
Jeff Sims run for 23 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.8%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted return for no gain to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:1461% → 62%
Q1 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+14
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 14 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
39.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 8 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
39.1%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the GTech 18Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+9
39.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the GTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 8 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
37.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4139% → 37%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
36.6%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0237% → 39%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
36.8%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nate McCollum) to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
37.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 6 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
37.2%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
39.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 44 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3362% → 63%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.9%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
37.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
38.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
37.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
36.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
36.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tre Swilling for 0 yards to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+7
37.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
37.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tre Swilling at the GTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0237% → 36%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
37.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 12Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+4
37.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 4 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+2
37.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordan Mason for 2 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+2
36.3%
David Shanahan punt for 42 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3364% → 69%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+47
35.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 47 yds to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4332% → 32%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Jeff Sims sacked by SirVocea Dennis for 0 yards to the GTech 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+4
31.6%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+12
31.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 12 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
31.5%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1369% → 69%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
30.9%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
31.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
30.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tre Swilling at the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1431% → 29%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the GTech 23Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
30.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 8 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-2
31.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+56
29.0%
David Shanahan punt for 41 yds PITTSBURGH Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on JORDAN-SWILLING, Bruce enforced at the deadball spot for (15 Yards) to the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:1572% → 82%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
18.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 55 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4823% → 30%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
22.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 13 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
23.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, the middle for a gain of Horse Collar Tackle on BALDONADO, Habakkuk enforced (Habakkuk Baldonado) to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
24.2%
Jeff Sims run for 15 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
24.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 7 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
24.2%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.9%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0873% → 86%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+25
27.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 25 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
26.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
26.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+1
26.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the GTech 37Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+20
27.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 20 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
26.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the GTech 10Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
26.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the GTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2520% → 19%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
19.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
19.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the GTech 23Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-15
19.3%
SIMS, Jeff pass to the left incomplete intended for NORRIS, Kalani thrown to the UP 42. PENALTY UP Pass Interference on MATHIS, Damarri enforced 15 yards to the GT 38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
20.5%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd to the GTech 39Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
20.3%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
19.8%
Jeff Sims run for 7 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-1
19.3%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:3987% → 92%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
12.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 29 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
8.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:327% → 6%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
6.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 71 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
7.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 5Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
7.5%
Jeff Sims run for 4 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
7.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
7.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 2 yds to the Pitt 4 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Targeting (2 Yards) to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
5.8%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:3891% → 94%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
9.2%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+4
8.0%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
8.0%
PICKETT, Kenny pass to the right complete for 28 yards to JACQUES-LOUIS, Shocky caught at the UP 36 and advanced to the UP 44, out of bounds. PENALTY UP Illegal Bat on JACQUES-LOUIS, Shocky enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the UP 16 to the UP 8, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
5.6%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:254% → 5%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
4.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 10 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
4.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 11 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
4.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 20 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
4.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 24 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+17
5.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
5.5%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-8
5.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
0
5.1%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
5.4%
Brent Cimaglia 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4996% → 98%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
4.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 14 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
4.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
50
+5
4.3%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+21
4.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 21 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
4.2%
PICKETT, Kenny pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVIS, Vincent thrown to the GT 0. PENALTY UP Holding on HOUY, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the GT 24 to the GT 34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+4
4.2%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+10
4.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.0%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the GTech 2Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.8%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the GTech 2Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Daniel Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:412% → 2%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.8%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
1.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
1.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 11 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
1.9%
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
1.9%
SIMS, Jeff pass to the left complete for 17 yards to GIBBS, Jahmyr caught at the GT 45 and advanced to the UP 36 (WOODS, A.J.), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY UP Personal Foul on WOODS, A.J. enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the UP 36 to the UP 21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
2.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
2.0%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+11
2.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 11 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
1.9%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
2.3%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.3%
Jeff Sims run for 4 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2398% → 98%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
2.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
2.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carter Warren) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
2.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
2.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 52 yds , Tre Swilling returns for 4 yds to the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Jeff Sims sacked by John Morgan III for 0 yards to the GTech 20Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+14
1.2%
Dontae Smith run for 14 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
1.2%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
1.1%
David Shanahan punt for 54 yds, downed at the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:4599% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
0.9%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+31
0.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 31 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
0.8%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+15
0.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 15 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.8%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
0.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 6 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+7
1.0%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
0.8%
PICKETT, Kenny pass to the left complete for 21 yards to BARTHOLOMEW, Gavin caught at the GT 27 and advanced to the GT 2 (KING, Jaylon). PENALTY UP Holding on MINOR, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the GT 23 to the GT 33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+3
0.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+2
0.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
0.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
0.5%
Sam Scarton 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
0.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 10 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
0.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 36 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.4%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
0.4%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-2
0.3%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 76 yds · 8:03100% → 100%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+16
0.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 16 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the GTech 41Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the GTech 40Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
0.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 10 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
0.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 18 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:14
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q2 11:17
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 55 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 9:22
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com