Try the model
UVA

Virginia 30 at Miami 28

MIA
2021 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:31 · Lou Hedley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−6.6Pregame prior+6.1Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:42: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +13.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 5:50: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 36 yds for a TD, (W. Taulapapa Run For Two-point Conversion) — UVA win probability +17.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Cam'Ron Harris run for 57 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 9:09: Tyler Van Dyke run for 24 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +29.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:09UVA 4th & 18 at UVA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:14UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:54MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:08UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 43, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31MIA 4th & 16 at UVA 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:09UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 18, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:53MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:54UVA 4th & 6 at MIA 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:25MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:56UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:52UVA 4th & 9 at MIA 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−12.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:10MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:36UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00MIA 4th & 12 at UVA 16, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−49.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−56.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:21UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:30MIA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:50UVA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:42MIA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:50UVA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:04MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:09MIA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:4840% → 40%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
60.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
59.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jahfari Harvey and Elijah Roberts for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
60.2%
Jacob Finn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrique Stevenson at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4860% → 60%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
60.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
60.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
59.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 62 yds, downed at the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4940% → 44%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+27
59.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
59.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
59.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 8 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
59.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
59.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
59.0%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+14
59.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1357% → 56%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
57.0%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
56.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
56.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 56 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:4544% → 46%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
56.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for no gain to the Virg 13Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
56.2%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+15
56.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 15 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
55.2%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Henry, Ra'Shaun, PENALTY MIAMI offside (Ford, Jonathan) 5 yards to the VIRGINIA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 5
OWN 38
-5
54.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
55.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
54.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
53.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+4
53.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
53.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
53.7%
Jacob Finn punt for 51 yds, downed at the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
52.9%
Mandy Alonso SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4747% → 47%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
53.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Leonard Taylor and Chantz Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
53.1%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+57
52.6%
Jacob Finn punt for 57 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 6 Tyrique Stevenson fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Malik CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1152% → 50%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
51.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
51.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
51.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
50.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+46
49.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4149% → 50%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
51.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
51.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
49.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 41 yds, downed at the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3449% → 45%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
48.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
48.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 16 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
48.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
48.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
47.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
48.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Smiley III) to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
48.7%
Tyler Van Dyke run for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-6
48.6%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Hunter Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
44.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1754% → 55%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
45.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
45.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Mike HollinsSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+8
46.4%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Thompson, Keytaon, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Hall Jr., Gurvan) 8 yards to the VIRGINIA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
45.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-5
45.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Mike Hollins) to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+5
44.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
45.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+22
45.5%
Jacob Finn punt for 58 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 22 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:3246% → 60%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+36
45.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 36 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
47.5%
Harris, Cam'Ron rush for 6 yards to the VIRGINIA12, PENALTY VIRGINIA substitution infraction 5 yards to the VIRGINIA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 5
OPP 13
+3
47.4%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+3
47.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
46.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:3246% → 61%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bubba Bolden) to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+6
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+10
50.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
50.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
50
+16
50.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 16 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
49.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
48.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
38.8%
Mike Hollins run for 25 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2942% → 41%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
41.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
40.6%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Mandy Alonso for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-4
40.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 26 Billy Kemp IV fumbled, recovered by Virg Billy Kemp IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
40.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0342% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
42.3%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Mandy Alonso for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
41.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
40.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
39.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5661% → 67%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+34
38.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 34 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
36.7%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
36.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
32.8%
Brendan Farrell 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2534% → 34%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
34.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
33.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-9
30.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Corey Flagg Jr. return for 9 yds to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3338% → 51%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
38.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
37.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
50.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4856% → 80%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
43.4%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
43.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
40.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 16 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
38.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
38.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Zach McCloud for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+36
20.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 36 yds for a TD, (W. Taulapapa Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+1
20.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Williams) to the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4329% → 26%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.6%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
26.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
25.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 52 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0279% → 81%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
21.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+18
21.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 18 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
19.7%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
18.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+3
18.8%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+68
19.3%
Jacob Finn punt for 58 yds for a touchback MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:4725% → 45%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
24.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
24.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
22.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
23.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+17
23.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 17 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
45.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 57 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:0766% → 73%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
34.4%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+39
35.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 39 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
30.6%
Billy Kemp IV run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
29.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
30.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
28.4%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Wicks, Dontayvion, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Hall Jr., Gurvan) 10 yards to the MIAMI14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
28.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
28.3%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
29.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
27.2%
Brendan Farrell 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3928% → 58%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.0%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
27.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
27.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
25.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
26.0%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Harley, Mike) 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+9
24.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+45
20.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 45 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
28.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
28.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
57.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 24 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2856% → 61%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.8%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
41.8%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 5 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
38.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
38.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
37.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
38.8%
Jacob Finn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28DOWNS
20 plays · 75 yds · 5:2947% → 17%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
47.3%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo, Charleston, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Cypress II, Fentrell) 15 yards to the MIAMI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
48.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 8 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
52.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-12
49.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Charleston Rambo) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 22
OWN 26
+8
45.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
45.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+16
42.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
50
+4
51.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
51.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
51.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 43 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, forced by Nick Grant, recovered by MiaFl Tyler Van DykeSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+7
48.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+22
48.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 22 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
52.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-2
43.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
17.0%
Andres Borregales 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:09
Tyler Van Dyke run for 24 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+29.9
TD · Q3 1:04
Cam'Ron Harris run for 57 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 5:50
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 36 yds for a TD, (W. Taulapapa Run For Two-point Conversion)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com