2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNH aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:34 · Aidan Cadogan punt for 43 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:26: Israel Abanikanda run for 15 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:59: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:55: Bret Edwards pass complete to Sean Coyne for 4 yds for a TD (Sean Lehane KICK) — UNH win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:17: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:07: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 47 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UNH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 10:16PITT 4th & 1 at UNH 1, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%59% to convertField goal94.9%−0.294% to makePunt94.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:02UNH 4th & 4 at UNH 28, down 14Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:17UNH 4th & 25 at UNH 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q2 9:45UNH 4th & 10 at UNH 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 6:20UNH 4th & 3 at UNH 28, down 35Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:35PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 33, up 35Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:51UNH 4th & 2 at UNH 35, down 35Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:34UNH 4th & 6 at UNH 22, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:54UNH 4th & 8 at UNH 18, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:56UNH 4th & 5 at PITT 28, down 63Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%41% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.160% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:43UNH 4th & 6 at UNH 49, down 70Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 4:39PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 15, up 70Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:49PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 27, up 70Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 11 of 11UNH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:16PITT Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:28PITT Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:26PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:59PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:55UNH Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:17PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:07PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11PITT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:33PITT Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:37PITT Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:17PITT Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:48PITT Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNHDrive 1SF3 plays · -25 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Bret Edwards sacked by Deslin Alexandre and Habakkuk Baldonado for 0 yards to the NHamp 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
-2
95.8%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Carlos Washington Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the NHamp 10Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
95.6%
Bret Edwards sacked by Phil Campbell III for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2DOWNS TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2196% → 95%
Q1 13:37
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+47
95.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 47 yds to the NHamp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 3INT TD3 plays · -1 yds · 0:485% → 5%
UNHDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:215% → 5%
Q1 8:02
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-2
95.5%
Aidan Cadogan punt for 31 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3696% → 96%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
50
+9
95.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 9 yds to the NHamp 41Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
95.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds to the NHamp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
95.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 11 yds to the NHamp 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 3:094% → 4%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.2%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Kyle Lepkowski for 8 yds to the NHamp 33Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
96.0%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Dylan Laube for 4 yds to the NHamp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Bret Edwards sacked by John Morgan III for 0 yards to the NHamp 24Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 25
OWN 22
0
96.5%
Aidan Cadogan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD4 plays · 58 yds · 1:1896% → 98%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
96.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 12 yds to the NHamp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
96.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 15 yds to the NHamp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 8TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:042% → 4%
PITTDrive 9TD9 plays · 82 yds · 3:3196% → 98%
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
96.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 18 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
96.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
96.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 9 yds to the NHamp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+19
96.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 19 yds to the NHamp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 4 yds to the NHamp 24Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
98.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:262% → 2%
PITTDrive 11TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:3898% → 99%
UNHDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:401% → 1%
Q2 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 28
-5
99.2%
Aidan Cadogan punt for 41 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q2 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+3
99.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Evan Horn returns for 3 yds to the NHamp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q2 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+6
99.2%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Nick Lorden for 6 yds to the NHamp 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4099% → 100%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 10 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 9 yds to the NHamp 47Similar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 11 yds to the NHamp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 9 yds to the NHamp 25Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 21
OPP 32
+25
99.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 25 yds to the NHamp 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 24 yds to the NHamp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 46 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 11:34
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Aidan Cadogan punt for 43 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD11 plays · 64 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
99.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 43 yds to the PITTSBURGH 11 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taysir Mack) to the NHamp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
99.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 11 yds to the NHamp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 4:54
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+27
99.9%
Aidan Cadogan punt for 46 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for 27 yds to the NHamp 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD8 plays · 37 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
Taysir Mack run for 18 yds to the NHamp 19 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Block below the waist on BARTHOLOMEW, Gavin enforced (Gavin Bartholomew) to the NHamp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
99.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 16 yds to the NHamp 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 47 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Griffin Helm for 10 yds to the NHamp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Adam Deese for 1 yd to the NHamp 36Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
EDWARDS, Bret pass to the right incomplete intended for ESPANET, Brian thrown to the UNH45; QB hurried by TEMPLE, Nate. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the PIT50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+14
99.9%
Bret Edwards pass complete to Griffin Helm for 14 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD7 plays · 72 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
99.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 25 yds to the NHamp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to John Vardzel for 6 yds to the NHamp 41Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+13
99.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 13 yds to the NHamp 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
99.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 14 yds to the NHamp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
100.0%
Tommy Herion pass complete to C.J. Turner for 18 yds to the NHamp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Griffin Helm at the NHamp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 26FUMBLE3 plays · 33 yds · 0:440% → 0%
PITTDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Griffin Helm at the NHamp 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 9 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:17
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 14:55
Bret Edwards pass complete to Sean Coyne for 4 yds for a TD (Sean Lehane KICK)
-1.5
TD · Q1 0:59
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
+1.2