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LOU

Louisville 31 at Florida State 23

FSU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—FSU 50.7%James Turner 44 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 7:27
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Q1 7:27 · James Turner 44 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Pregame prior+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:14: Malik Cunningham 4 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +8.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:47: Malik Cunningham 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +10.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:49: Jordan Watkins 21 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:08: Andrew Parchment 23 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT failed) — FSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:49: Jashaun Corbin 75 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:51FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27LOU 4th & 13 at FSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:15FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:31LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 41, down 18
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:08LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:04FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 30, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:11LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−4.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:38FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:17LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 47, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51FSU 4th & 5 at LOU 29, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:31FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:09LOU 4th & 4 at FSU 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−1.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:40FSU 4th & 9 at LOU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−5.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:40LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:12FSU 4th & 7 at LOU 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−2.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:51LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 47, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:37LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:30FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:47LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:49LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:08FSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:49FSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1647% → 47%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
53.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
53.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 10 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
52.9%
Tyler Harrell 59 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2253% → 52%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
52.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
52.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for no gain to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 11
OWN 18
-6
52.6%
McKenzie Milton sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 17
OWN 12
+10
52.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Braden Smith returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:0848% → 49%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
52.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
51.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
51.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
51.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
51.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+17
50.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
50.6%
Mitchell, Jalen rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST20, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal block 15 yards to the FLORIDAST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+12
50.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 12 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
50.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
50.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
50.7%
James Turner 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2151% → 50%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
50.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
50.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+15
49.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
50.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 6 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
50.9%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
50.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
49.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:2951% → 61%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
48.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
48.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
48.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
48.3%
Maurice Burkley run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+13
47.9%
Maurice Burkley run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
47.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
47.1%
Braden Smith pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+9
47.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
46.8%
Maurice Burkley run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.6%
Malik Cunningham 4 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3941% → 47%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
40.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 22 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
41.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
41.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
40.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
41.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 8 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
40.6%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
46.5%
Treshaun Ward 20 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 6:3454% → 71%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
46.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+1
45.6%
Maurice Burkley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
45.8%
Maurice Burkley run for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
44.8%
Maurice Burkley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
44.7%
Maurice Burkley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+4
44.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 4 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
43.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
43.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+15
43.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
42.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
42.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
40.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
39.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.6%
Malik Cunningham 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2133% → 32%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
32.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+6
32.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
31.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
31.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1972% → 87%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
27.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 19 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
26.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
25.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, broken up by Brendan GantSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+8
26.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
25.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
24.7%
Braden Smith run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
23.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
21.1%
Maurice Burkley run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
12.8%
Jordan Watkins 21 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4120% → 28%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (Andrew Parchment) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+20
19.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
19.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 16 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
20.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 21 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
28.3%
Andrew Parchment 23 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:2681% → 81%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
19.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 15 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
18.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+10
18.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 10 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
18.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
18.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:2525% → 24%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
25.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 19 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
25.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-8
25.1%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Malik Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+10
22.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 10 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
23.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0523% → 35%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClain, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
34.6%
Jashaun Corbin 75 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3265% → 68%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
34.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
32.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
34.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Maurice Burkley, broken up by Keir ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+12
34.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
32.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5533% → 29%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
32.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
32.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
32.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+4
29.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
29.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Johnson at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4770% → 70%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
30.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
29.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-11
30.2%
Cunningham, Malik rush for 70 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Bentley, Cole) 11 yards to the LOUISVILLE19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+4
30.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 23 Jalen Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Lvile Jalen MitchellSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
30.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 73 yds, downed at the FlaSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2729% → 26%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
28.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+15
28.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
28.9%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+5
28.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+5
26.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
25.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Johnson at the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2074% → 74%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
25.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
25.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
25.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
26.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:1726% → 23%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
25.7%
D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
26.5%
D.J. Williams run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 1 yd to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-2
26.5%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+17
23.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 17 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
27.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
27.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
27.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
28.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
28.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
26.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
23.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1579% → 80%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
21.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
21.0%
Maurice Burkley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
20.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4921% → 19%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
22.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
20.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
18.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, broken up by Greedy VanceSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+12
17.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 12 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+1
18.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1685% → 85%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
14.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
14.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+10
14.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 10 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-2
14.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2117% → 23%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
16.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 32 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
20.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-1
19.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
17.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
22.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:4982% → 88%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaelin Carter) to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 8
OWN 27
+4
17.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
14.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
15.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.9%
Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
10.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Maurice BurkleySimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
11.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+6
12.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds Justin Marshall fumbled, forced by Meiko Dotson, recovered by Lvile Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
12.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1916% → 10%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
15.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
14.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Darius Washington) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 15
OWN 18
0
14.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson II, broken up by Shavarick WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+5
13.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+10
12.1%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Parchment, Andrew, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Jones, Dorian) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
14.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 25 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
18.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-7
16.2%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 18
50
+11
9.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 11 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
9.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1795% → 96%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
5.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
4.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
3.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
4.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:574% → 4%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
4.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+8
4.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 8 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
4.3%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Parchment, Andrew, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Clark, Kei'Trel) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
4.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
50
-4
5.2%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
3.9%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Kei'Trel Clark return for no gain to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+5
4.1%
TEAM rush for loss of 1 yard to the LOUISVILLE2, PENALTY FLORIDAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:49
Jashaun Corbin 75 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
+11.6
TD · Q2 6:47
Malik Cunningham 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
-10.8
TD · Q2 1:08
Andrew Parchment 23 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT failed)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com